US voters go to the polls as US strikes Qeshm hours after Brent’s 7.6% drop on peace hopes

EU mid-market update: US voters go to the polls as US strikes Qeshm hours after Brent’s 7.6% drop on peace hopes; Oracle raises its full $20B in five days, selling stock at an 11% discount; PBOC lifts the FX reserve requirement to slow the yuan.

The brief

- Markets go into the US midterm count with oil on edge: Brent up 2% after a 7.6% drop on Monday to ~$104 on peace hopes before reports of US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, while Democrats are priced at about 71% to win the Senate, a result that could stay open past Friday's payrolls if it hinges on Maine or Alaska. Lufthansa showed the cost of the Middle East crisis, cutting the top of its FY adj EBIT range as fuel costs run about €600M above its prior forecast. Wednesday's refunding will show how Treasury funds rising borrowing ($800B in Q1, leaning on bills) with 30-year yields above 5.30%, and AI costs are spreading through markets, as seen in Oracle's discounted $20B raise, Marvell's share-funded Lumentum deal and memory prices squeezing Apple's margin. Elsewhere, the PBOC and Beijing moved to curb yuan strength and pause new equity supply, the RBA hiked to 4.85% with three dissents, and US-mediated Ukraine-Russia talks are set for Nov 10-11 in Abu Dhabi.

Observations in full

- Oil dropped on peace hopes, and the US then struck Iran. Brent fell 7.6% to $104.77 on Monday after Trump cast doubt on renewed strikes, said a deal was possible and answered “no” when asked about attacking after the midterms. Hours later the WSJ reported US strikes on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, which two US officials called limited and “defensive”, in response to an Iranian attack on a US aircraft. Officials said it was one of a series of unpublicised strikes in recent weeks. The administration has been striking Iran while describing the war as winding down, and Trump told Fox on Monday night that Iran is “not much of a war”. Iran claimed it shot down two RQ-170 drones, which a US official denied, and warned of a “powerful response”. A senior Iranian official said the two sides are “far from” a deal. Aramco’s CEO said it is ready to “rapidly ramp up” output. Q3 net income of SAR137.4B beat SAR109.6B and revenue of SAR464.3B beat SAR307.6B, and Aramco said damage to its facilities was not material as of Sept 30. Lufthansa now expects FY fuel costs about €600M higher than it forecast three months ago, even after Q3 net income of €1.26B beat. US airlines rose about 4-5% and Exxon fell 4%. In Europe, oil producers should give back part of Monday’s fall at the open.

- US polls start closing at 19:00 ET, and the first reads come from districts Trump won. Georgia, Virginia, South Carolina and most of New Hampshire close first. VA-01, Trump +5 and 64% Democrat, is the opening House test; a flip in VA-05, Trump +12, would point to a wave, and VA-02 tests whether Republican Kiggans holds. In Florida, a Democratic hold in FL-14 (Castor) is an early warning for the Republican House, and a Graham loss in South Carolina would badly damage the Republican Senate path. Ohio closes at 19:30 and gives the first real Senate signal. Read county shares against 2022, because early and absentee ballots, which break 45% to 31% for Democrats where registration is reported, are counted first. Republican early ballots are up only 2.6% on 2022 against 47% for Democrats, so early Democratic leads will overstate the result until the Election Day vote arrives. At 20:00 most of Texas, Kansas, Michigan, Maine and Pennsylvania close, with PA-01 (53%) the clean House toss-up and Wayne and Oakland margins measuring the cost of Haley Stevens’ endorsement of Rogers. El Paso closes at 21:00, so Texas can be called from then on, alongside WI-01 (50%) and NY-17 (63%). The West Coast closes at 23:00 and mainland Alaska at midnight. On the 2022 pattern, when Fetterman’s Pennsylvania flip was called just before 01:00 ET, the decisive Senate call comes in Asian hours. Treat any claim without an AP or network call with caution, and count called seats against those still waiting on Maine and Alaska at the London open, 03:00 ET.

- The Senate comes down to seat 51. Democrats start at 47 and need four net gains, with Vance breaking a 50-50 tie. Michigan, priced at 67% after falling 9 points, is the weakest Democratic hold, and losing it raises the requirement to five flips. Ohio and Kansas swing the odds: both Republican takes Democratic control to about 40% or lower, and both Democratic lifts it into the high 80s. Single-race prices sum to about 51.5 Democratic seats. That implies about 76% odds if the races were independent, so the 71% market price allows for a correlated polling miss of about 1.8 seats. Nebraska independent Osborn, who will caucus with neither party, could create a 50-49-1 chamber and decide committee ratios. If seat 51 depends on Maine, ranked-choice tabulation runs to about Nov 13, and if it depends on Alaska, to about Nov 18, so Senate control would stay open through Wednesday’s refunding and Friday’s payrolls. Tier1 analysts map puts the S&P at +1.00% to +1.25% on a Republican sweep with higher yields, and +0.50% to +1.00% on a split with a Republican Senate, which brings deficit restraint. A Democratic sweep is -0.25% to +0.50%, with AI de-grossing and investigation risk. A slow, contested count is the worst case. Banks have trailed the S&P by an average 2.2pts in the month after the last five midterms, so a Republican Senate hold is their upside surprise. Markets go into the count after the S&P fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq 1.1% on Monday, and October ISM manufacturing at 55.5 against 54.5 expected leaves the Fed no reason to ease, whatever the result.

- Treasury’s estimates put more borrowing into bills, which the refunding can either confirm or offset. Q4 borrowing came in at $618B, $10B below August only because the quarter started with $984B of cash. Excluding that, borrowing is $24B higher, so the deficit is running wider. Q1 is $800B, up 38% from a year earlier, including about $150B to rebuild cash to $1T by March. If coupon sizes stay unchanged, bills fund most of the increase, taking the bill share of marketable debt to about 23.7% by March on one estimate. The August statement switched to “changes” in coupon sizes, and analysts expect any cuts to fall on the 20- and 30-year, with increases concentrated in the 2- to 7-year sector. Treasury has raised its long-end buyback maximum to $6B from $2B. Wednesday’s 08:30 ET statement therefore lands on a curve where 30-year yields are still above 5.30%.

- Oracle raised the entire $20B it promised at its investor day five days later, and its stock fell 8.8%. It priced $10B of stock at $116, about an 11% discount, and $10B of senior notes due 2029-2046. Last Wednesday management said the $20B would be the last capital raised for the FY27-30 cycle and might be done before year-end. It was done in five days. Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal worth about $771 a share. Marvell fell 12.7%, and is down about 32% since Oct 28, so it is paying for the optics business with heavily marked-down stock. The FT reports Nvidia has told data-centre clients that most of their customers must be non-Chinese, which imposes export control through its own allocation decisions. Drax is partnering with Brookfield and Radiant on a data centre of more than 1GW at Drax Power Station, with potential investment above £20B. That puts the AI buildout on a converted coal-to-biomass plant with its own grid connection.

- Memory costs are now hitting Apple’s margin and shrinking the PC market. Apple guided Q1 revenue up 7-10% against 5.7% expected, but gross margin of 45-46% came in below 46.5% expected. It called memory pricing “unprecedented” and said it will keep rising beyond December. Nanya now sees 2026 PC demand down 20-30% as consumer and PC customers cut production, while Q4 DRAM contract prices rise again, more slowly than Q3’s roughly 60% sequential jump in its per-bit ASP. ON Semi is directing constrained capacity toward AI data centres at the expense of auto inventory rebuilding. Lattice guided Q4 revenue up about 130% to a run rate above $1.3B. Palantir described sovereign-AI demand as continuing “at a furious pace”.

- The PBOC acted against yuan strength, and Beijing paused new equity supply. The PBOC will raise the FX reserve requirement ratio by 200bps to 6% from Nov 15. Requiring banks to hold more of their foreign-currency deposits as reserves reduces onshore dollar liquidity and pushes back on a yuan that hit 6.6621 last week, its strongest since June 2022. The FT reports regulators told banks to hold off on company listings and large share sales to support the market, and the CSRC promised a “stable” market. Beijing is weakening the currency and limiting new share supply at the same time to support equities. The NDRC promised “extraordinary” steps toward a tech breakthrough. The PBOC drained a net CNY332B in open-market operations overnight.

- RBA hiked for a fifth time to 4.85%, with three dissents. Its quarterly forecasts raised the assumed June 2027 cash rate to 4.90% from 4.50%, and the statement kept inflation risks skewed upward. Bullock said she does not know what the next move will be and is “preserving options”. With three members voting for no change, the next hike will be hard to pass. Swiss October CPI rose to 1.5% against 1.2% expected, Korea’s held at 2.8% and Turkey’s reached 29.8%.

- CrowdStrike says attacks run by AI agents are doubling every month. Agentic security incidents doubled from July to August and again from August to September, and Kurtz says the trend remains exponential. In one campaign, two agents compromised 15 healthcare organisations with humans only choosing targets, and gained control of a domain controller in 20 minutes. CrowdStrike launched an “AI Kill Switch” for rogue agents. It follows last week’s $6.3B Binance theft attributed to North Korea, the GMO Internet ransomware that hit Japanese FX brokers, and the Mirae Asset breach.

- European earnings split along exposure to US healthcare and to consumers. Bayer raised its outlook on pharma, with core EPS of €0.31 against €0.12 expected. Philips reached an agreement in principle with the DOJ to resolve the Respironics criminal and civil investigations, which removes the main legal overhang on the stock. Fresenius Medical Care cut FY operating guidance on weak US dialysis, Associated British Foods’ adjusted EPS fell to 156.0p from 174.9p, Hugo Boss cut its outlook and TeamViewer cut revenue guidance. France votes on the revenue side of its budget today, with the year-to-date deficit at €159.2B, after Fitch moved its outlook to negative on Friday. Belgium is past its Nov 3 deadline for a multiyear budget after PM De Wever offered his resignation.

- Ukraine-Russia diplomacy now has a date. Witkoff said the US will mediate working-level talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on Nov 10-11, in line with Zelenskiy’s timetable. Ukraine’s pause on refinery strikes runs through the midterms, and the WSJ reports Washington wants Russian gas to flow through Ukraine again, with German storage at about 62% full.

- Cross-asset: Monday’s 7.6% drop in Brent priced peace before the Qeshm strikes were reported, so oil reopens with the risk of a disclosed war that the administration has been calling a de-escalation. The midterm count runs through Asian hours tonight, and Maine or Alaska could leave the Senate open past payrolls. Treasury’s $800B Q1 estimate and a bill share near 24% leave Wednesday’s refunding to decide on 20- and 30-year sizes. Oracle’s discounted $20B, Marvell’s share-funded Lumentum deal and Apple’s memory-squeezed margin show AI costs spreading through equity, M&A and gross margins. The PBOC’s reserve hike and the pause on new listings show China is now leaning against yuan strength. This week also brings the refunding, euro-area CPI and ADP on Wednesday, the BoE and the French 10-year auction on Thursday and payrolls on Friday.

- Asia closed mixed with KOSPI underperforming -3.6%. EU indices -0.2% to -0.5%. US futures -0.5% to +0.3%. Gold -1.0%, DXY 0.0%; Commodity: Brent +0.8%, WTI +0.9%; Crypto: BTC -1.2%, ETH -0.9%.

Asia

- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 4.85% (as expected) for its 2nd straight rate hike (5th overall) under the current tightening cycle. Decision to raise rate was not unanimous (4-3) with dissenters seeking steady policy.

- RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) (aka Quarterly forecasts) raised the end-and raised the end-Trimmed Mean Inflation forecast from 3.3% to 3.6% and raised the 2027 Trimmed Mean Inflation forecast from 2.6% to 2.9%. Projections raised the end-2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.6% and raised the mid-2027 GDP growth outlook from 1.5% to 1.6%.

- South Korea Oct CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.8%e; CPI (ex-food/energy) Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.7%e.

- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 66.2 v 67.9 prior.

- New Zealand Sept Building Permits M/M: -7.9% v +5.3% prior.

- China PBoC to raise FX Reserve Requirement by 200bps.

- China National Team ETF trading said to persist, supporting domestic equity markets.

Global conflict/tensions

- US said to have carried out a series of limited strikes against Iran, including an attack on Qeshm Island. Event occurred even as Trump continued to emphasize the possibility of a diplomatic agreement.

- US Envoy Witkoff noted that would mediate working-level negotiations between Ukraine and Russia between November 10-11th in Abu Dhabi. Focus to be on post-war security arrangements, de-escalation measures, humanitarian issues, and the next steps toward a peace settlement.

Americas

- US Midterm elections to determine control of both chambers of Congress for the remaining two-years of President Trump’s term. Democrats sensing growing optimism on results being strong favorites to retake the House and as slim favorites to gain control of the Senate. Dealers noted of significant risk that results of the election would be unclear over the course of election day and feed market volatility.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE -0.44% at 10,713.73, DAX -0.56% at 25,838.50, CAC-40 -0.17% at 8,033.93, IBEX-35 -0.68% at 18,843.79, FTSE MIB -0.37% at 49,763.50, SMI +0.09% at 14,815.80, S&P 500 Futures +0.01%].

Market focal points/key themes: Europe reverses Monday’s 0.4% STOXX 600 gain, with the index down about 0.7% in early trading, the DAX down 0.6%, the IBEX 35 down 0.7%, the FTSE MIB down 0.4% and the CAC 40 down 0.2%, as Apple’s warning that memory-chip inflation will compress gross margin through the holiday quarter and Oracle’s plan to raise $20B in debt and equity (ORCL about -8.8%) revive scrutiny of debt-funded AI capex, with ASML (-2.5%, on pulled China export licences), Infineon (-3%) and ASM International (-2.5%) leading the semiconductor unwind. Stock moves are dispersed on a heavy earnings day, with about 20% of STOXX 600 companies reporting this week: Truecaller falls about 14.5% on a 12% constant-currency drop in ad revenue, Alstom drops another 7% after JPMorgan and Citi downgrades, Boozt loses 7.5% as free cash flow collapsed to SEK11M from SEK292M, and Zalando slips 5% on lower-half growth guidance, while Bayer jumps 5.5% on a raised FY EBITDA range of €9.8B to €10.3B, Philips adds 4% on a €569M Q3 adjusted EBITA that beat €522M consensus, and Lufthansa gains 2.5% on a Q3 beat. The macro backdrop adds a layer of caution, with euro-area October manufacturing growth easing as slowing new orders and energy and supply-chain costs squeeze margins, Fitch’s late-Friday cut of France’s outlook to negative on a widening deficit and parliamentary gridlock keeping OATs and Paris financials under pressure, and Brent’s retreat on US-Iran talks, which lifted Ryanair 5.2% on Monday, doing little to offset the tech drag. Positioning is further constrained by today’s US midterms, where polling favours Democrats retaking the House, and by Thursday’s BoE decision, while UK retail and staples led the FTSE 100 lower, with Associated British Foods down 3% after a 14% fall in adjusted operating profit to £1.508B and guidance for a £70M to £170M Sugar operating loss.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: Lufthansa [LHA.DE] +2.5% (Q3 adjusted EBIT and EPS beat expectations, outweighing a fuel-cost-driven reduction in the upper end of FY profit guidance), Lottomatica [LTMC.IT] +1.5% (nine-month adjusted EBITDA rose to €665.5m from €617.3m on online and sports-betting growth, with FY guidance confirmed), Boozt [BOOZT.SE] -7.5% (free cash flow collapsed to SEK11m from SEK292m on peak-season inventory building and an exit-tax payment despite strong sales and EBIT growth), Zalando [ZAL.DE] -5.0% (a modest Q3 revenue beat failed to offset guidance for FY revenue and GMV growth remaining in the lower half of the 12%-17% range), Schaeffler [SHA0.DE] -1.0% (announced 3,460 European job cuts and the closure of four German sites while confirming FY guidance).

Healthcare: Bayer [BAYN.DE] +5.5% (Q3 adjusted EBITDA beat consensus and FY guidance was raised to €9.8bn-€10.3bn from €9.6bn-€10.1bn on pharmaceutical strength), Philips [PHIA.NL] +4.0% (Q3 adjusted EBITA of €569m beat €522m consensus, with a 13.0% margin and 8% comparable order-intake growth), Coloplast [COLO-B.DK] -2.5% (quarterly adjusted EBIT missed consensus and the 2030 organic-growth ambition was cut to 5%-7% from 7%-8%), Fresenius Medical Care [FME.DE] -1.0% (narrowed its FY operating-income outlook to between flat and a mid-single-digit decline amid regulatory and inflation headwinds).

Technology: Truecaller [TRUE-B.SE] -14.5% (Q3 advertising revenue fell 12% in constant currencies and a SEK92m Indian tax provision drove a SEK22.6m net loss), Infineon [IFX.DE] -3.0%, ASM International [ASM.NL] -2.5% (followed the US and Asian semiconductor selloff as Apple warned that rising memory costs would pressure gross margin), ASML [ASML.NL] -2.5% (China export licences were pulled, compounding the overnight global semiconductor selloff).

Energy: Rubis [RUI.FR] +3.0% (Q3 revenue rose to €2.25bn from €1.56bn and distributed volumes increased, while FY guidance was reaffirmed).

Consumer staples: Associated British Foods [ABF.UK] -3.0% (adjusted operating profit fell 14% and management forecast another decline, including a £70m-£170m Sugar operating loss).

Industrials/defence: International Workplace Group [IWG.UK] +6.5% (narrowed FY adjusted EBITDA guidance to $585m-$625m, putting the midpoint above consensus, as its network surpassed 5,000 centres), NCC [NCC-B.SE] +2.5% (Q3 order intake rose 24%, contracting margins improved and the SEK8.2bn Industry divestment sharpened the group’s focus), Alstom [ALO.FR] -7.0% (extended its post-profit-warning slump as JPMorgan and Citi downgraded to Neutral and Deutsche Bank cut its price target), Geberit [GEBN.CH] -4.0% (nine-month EBITDA narrowly missed consensus and the margin slipped amid higher material and energy costs and currency pressure), MTU Aero Engines [MTX.DE] -2.5% (Bank of America downgraded the shares to Neutral from Buy), ASSA ABLOY [ASSA-B.SE] -1.5% (DNB Carnegie downgraded to Hold from Buy and cut its target to SEK435 from SEK440 after a nine-session rally).

Financials: Hiscox [HSX.UK] +2.5% (nine-month written premiums grew 9.5%, led by accelerating Retail momentum, while the $75m cost-benefit programme remained on track), TP ICAP [TCAP.UK] -1.5% (Q3 revenue rose 11%, but FY adjusted EBIT guidance was merely reaffirmed in line with market expectations).

Materials: Clariant [CLN.CH] -3.0% (Q3 adjusted EBITDA missed consensus by about 5% and the margin contracted 230bp on weaker mix, raw-material volatility and Catalysts softness).

Speakers

- Eurogroup called for nominations for ECB Presidency by Friday, Nov 6th.

- ECB’s Kocher (Austria): Must make sure inflation does not become entrenched.

- ECB’s Radev (Bulgaria): October rate pause did not mean tightening was over. Inflation was stable but should not wait for 2nd round effects before acting. The current rate was not sufficient.

- China said to reiterate its moderate loose monetary policy stance and keep liquidity ample.

- Senior Iranian official noted that Iran and US were far from reaching a deal to end the war; US excessive demands would not be accepted by Iran. Mediators were working hard to narrow gaps between Iran and US (**Reminder: Qatari mediators in Teheran on Monday (Nov 2nd) with US and Iran reviewing latest suggestions).

- Iran Military Chief Abdollahi reiterated Iran's 5 principles for lasting peace include an end to war on all fronts, including Lebanon and Gaza.

Currencies

- FX markets were quiet with focus on US midterm elections with most results expected on Tuesday. Odds of a Democratic sweep have increased. If Democrats gained control of one or both chambers, they could increase scrutiny of war policy, challenge military funding and increase pressure for a diplomatic solution once the new Congress was formed.

- EUR/USD steady at the 1.12 area. ECB members continued to note that the recent pause in Key Rates did not suggest the end of the easing cycle.

- GBP/USD at 1.3420. Dealers noted that a BOE rate hike looked to be a done deal on Thurs as energy prices have shown few signs of retreating. Move viewed as a 'safety first' event to offset the threat of second round effects. Expect the MPC to temper the market's enthusiasm for an aggressive hiking trajectory.

- USD/JPY around the 158 area with Japan closed for holiday and little economic releases the pair had little enthusiasm for price action.

- Various analysts noted that China’s PBoC move to raise the foreign-exchange reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions was aimed at slowing down, not reversing, the yuan's appreciation trend.

- The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.32%, France 10-year Oat at 4.95% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.24%; 10-year Treasury yield: 4.92%; 10-year JGB: 2.76%.

Economic data

- (TR) Turkey Oct CPI M/M: 2.6% v 2.4%e; Y/Y: 29.8% v 29.5%e; CPI Core Index Y/Y: 28.3% v 28.5%e.

- (TR) Turkey Oct PPI M/M: 1.7% v 2.1% prior; Y/Y: 27.4% v 27.4% prior.

- (CH) Swiss Oct CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.2%e.

- (CH) Swiss Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.4% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.2% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5%e.

- (FR) France Sept YTD Budget Balance: -€159.2B v -€159.6B prior.

- (HK) Hong Kong Q3 Advance GDP Q/Q: 1.9% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 3.6%e.

- (HK) Hong Kong Sept Retail Sales Value Y/Y:6.4 % v 4.7%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 3.9% v 1.3%e.

Fixed income issuance

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €6.424B vs. €5.5-6.5B indicated range in 6-month and 12-month bills.

- (UK) DMO sold £3.25B in 4.625% 2037 green Gilts; Avg Yield: 5.268% v 4.934% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.38x v 3.31x prior; Tail: 0.3bps v 0.2bps prior.

- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold total €1.7B vs. €1.7B indicated in 2030 and 2036 RAGB bonds.

- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.55B vs. ZAR2.55B indicated in 2033, 2039 and 2042 bonds.

Looking ahead

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:25 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €5.0B in 2.90% Oct 2031 BOBL- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills.

- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell combined €3.0B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO).

- 05:40 (UK) BOE allotment in 6-month GBP-enhanced liquidity repo operation (ILTR).

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.8% prior.

- 06:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.

- 06:00 (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed).

- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell €2.0B in 3-month Bills.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Manufacturing PMI: No est v 44.8 prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data.

- 09:00 (FR) ECB’s Moulin (France) on panel.

- 10:00 (US) Sept JOLTS Job Openings: 7.155Me v 7.079M prior.

- 10:00 (US) Sept Factory Orders: 1.2%e v 0.1% prior; Factory Orders (ex-transportation): 0.5%e v 0.3% prior.

- 10:00 (US) Sept Final Durable Goods Orders: 1.8%e v 1.8% prelim; Durables (ex-transportation): 0.5%e v 0.5% prelim; Capital Goods Orders (non-defense/ex-aircraft): 0.5%e v 0.5% prelim; Capital Goods Shipments (non-defense/ex-aircraft): No est v 1.2% prelim.

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Manufacturing PMI: No est v 50.3 prior.

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Total Remittances: $5.4Be v $5.5B prior.

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey.

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Oct Manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.6 prior.

- 11:00 (DK) Denmark Oct Foreign Reserves (DKK): No est v 693.2B prior.

- 11:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Macklem with De Gov Rogers in Parliament.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 6-Week Bills.

- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Oct IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 50.0 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 49.2 prior.

- 13:00 (DE) ECB’s Nagel (Germany).

- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Foreign Reserves: No est v $440.6B prior.

- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories.

- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q3 Unemployment Rate: 5.5%e v 5.6% prior.

- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q3 Employment Change Q/Q: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior (revised from 0.5%); Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.2% prior; Participation Rate: 70.7%e v 70.7% prior; Private Wages (ex-overtime) Q/Q: 0.5%e v 0.7% prior; Private Wages Q/Q: 0.5%et v 0.7% prior; Average Hourly Earnings Q/Q: No est v 1.4% prior.

- 17:00 (AU) Australia Oct Final Services PMI: No est v 47.8 prelim; Composite PMI: No est v 47.7 prelim.

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Oct Monetary Base End of period: No est v ¥535.4T prior.

- 19:00 (NZ) New Zealand Oct ANZ Commodity Price M/M: No est v 0.6% prior.

- 19:30 (HK) Hong Kong Oct PMI (whole economy): No est v 49.2 prior.

- 19:30 (SG) Singapore Oct PMI (whole economy): No est v 58.1 prior.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Sept Household Spending M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.8% prior.

- 20:01 (IE) Ireland Oct Services PMI: No est v 54.1 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 55.6 prior.

- 20:45 (CN) China Oct Services PMI: 51.6e v 51.6 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 52.4 prior.

- 23:00 (SG) Singapore to sell 6-month bills.

- 23:30 (TW) Taiwan to sell NT$15B in 30-Year Bonds.

- (US) Congressional Midterm Elections.