Dow up, the rest down

USD: Dec '26 is Up at 101.705.

Energies: Dec '26 Crude is Up at 97.97.

Financials: The Dec '26 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 13 ticks and trading at 107.27

Indices: The Sep '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 32 ticks Lower and trading at 7566.25

Gold: The Dec'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 3918.70.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, but the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Higher which is correlated. Gold is trading Down which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down.  Asia traded Mixed.    Europe is trading Lower.  

Possible challenges to traders 

• Jolts Job Openings is out at 10 AM EST. Major.
• Factory Orders m/m is out at 10 AM EST. Major.
• Total Vehicle Sales is out All Day by Brand. Major.
• Election Day in the US  Major.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the two year climber Higher at around 8:30 AM EST with no real economic news pending.  The Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow dived Lower around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Dec '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Dec 26 - 10/02/26

Dow - Dec 2026- 1/26

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets an Upside bias but only the Dow advanced.  The Dow gained 214 points, but the other indices lost ground.  Today our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Ready to use Market Correlation to make you a better trader?