US Nonfarm Payrolls to complete the week

In focus today

• The most important data release will be the US July Jobs Report. We forecast nonfarm payrolls at +70k, the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings at +0.3% m/m s.a. Most leading data still point towards solid labour market conditions, although weak labour supply growth also weighs on the employment growth outlook. The unemployment rate remains the Fed's primary focus. The Fed's Barkin (non-voter, neutral) will be on the wires after the release. 
• The remaining data calendar remains relatively light, with industrial production due from Denmark, Germany and Norway, including manufacturing production in Norway.
• Focus will also remain on developments in the Middle East and the SOH, where a temporary reopening remains uncertain and traffic is unlikely to resume immediately.
• Over the weekend inflation figures from China are set for release.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In commodities, Brent crude moved above USD 83/bbl, erasing most of this week's earlier decline. A draft Iran-Oman proposal, now under review by the parliament in Iran, would impose stricter conditions on commercial shipping through the strait than markets had anticipated. The plan includes limits on US and Israeli vessels, compensation requirements for countries deemed hostile and penalties of 20% of cargo value for violations. Reports that Iran struck what it described as "hostile targets" in the strait added to the pressure.

In China, export growth remained strong in July at 23.9% y/y (cons: 22.7%, prior: 27.0%), underscoring trade as a continued bright spot amid weaker domestic indicators. Imports also eased to 27.5% y/y (prior: 36%). Exports remained supported by solid foreign demand alongside robust demand for AI-related technology products and front-loading of shipments to the US ahead of a late-July tariff increase.

In Japan, household spending fell by 3.3% y/y in June (cons: 1.0%, prior: -0.4%). The fall marked the seventh consecutive month of contraction and the largest decline in the current sequence, highlighting continued weakness in consumer demand. On a monthly basis, household spending dropped 6.4% m/m s.a. (cons: -3.1%, prior: 3.7%).

What happened yesterday

In the US, the July Challenger Report showed 33,429 announced layoffs, the lowest level since July 2024. The share of AI-linked layoffs continued to rise and now accounts for up to 33% of total layoffs. Initial and continuing jobless claims remained little changed at low levels, with the latter rising to 1.801m in the week ending 25 July. Productivity growth picked up to 1.4% q/q AR in Q2 from 0.3% in Q1, limiting unit labour cost growth to 1.3% q/q AR from 1.8%. The Fed will be glad to see that the labour market has not been a significant source of inflationary pressure. For now, productivity growth remains consistent with historical levels, suggesting no clear AI-driven acceleration yet.

Attention also turned to Fed communication, with the FT reporting that Chair Warsh will stick to his no-guidance policy. People familiar with his thinking said Warsh would be prepared to raise interest rates at the September meeting if upcoming inflation prints remain elevated and markets price in higher borrowing costs. Warsh is expected to explain the intellectual framework behind his communication strategy at Jackson Hole on 22 August.

In Sweden, July flash inflation surprised to the upside, with core inflation at 0.6% y/y (Danske: 0.39%, cons: 0.24%), CPIF at 0.75% y/y (Danske: 0.64%, cons: 0.49%) and CPI at 0.21% y/y (Danske: 0.11%, cons: 0.03%). The flash details provided only limited information, but the upside surprise was driven by goods prices, likely reflecting pass-through from higher commodity prices during the spring.

In the euro area, retail sales fell by 0.3% m/m in June (cons: 0.1%, prior: 0.4%). The decline mainly reflected weaker sales in Germany and France, while Italy, Spain and the Netherlands recorded modest increases. On a year-on-year basis, retail sales growth slowed to 0.7% from 1.9% in May, marking the weakest gain since July 2024 and falling short of expectations of 1.0%.

Equities: Equities ended lower yesterday in what was once again a textbook 2026 style risk off session, albeit one that looked very different from a traditional risk off environment. The move was not driven by deteriorating macro data or disappointing earnings, but rather by weaker sentiment as investors became increasingly concerned about geopolitics and the pace of AI investment. Higher oil prices weighed on broader equities, but the dominant feature remained sector rotation rather than outright selling. Defensives outperformed, led by energy, while consumer staples and health care also advanced. The magnitude of the ongoing rotations between cyclicals and defensives continues to be striking and remains far larger than the underlying market moves. Yesterday also marked the first session in a week where value and min vol outperformed, while Europe emerged as the strongest regional market. This morning, AI concerns continue to weigh on Asian markets, particularly the more technology heavy indices, while US and European futures are trading mixed.

FI and FX: EUR/USD edged lower but remained within the 1.1500-1.1550 range and USD/JPY edged above 158 yesterday, as higher oil and natural gas prices supported USD broadly against most G10 currencies. Treasury and Bund yields moved higher particularly in the belly of the curve. Brent crude ended the day just below USD 84/bbl, following reports that Iran had attacked "hostile targets" in the Strait of Hormuz and the draft proposal with Oman included stricter control of the Hormuz Strait than anticipated by markets. Swedish rates sold off following the publication of the July flash inflation print, as CPIF excl. energy came in 0.3pp above analyst expectations at 0.6% y/y. Rounding off the week, the US Jobs Report is set for release in the afternoon. We forecast nonfarm payrolls at +70k, the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% and average hourly earnings at +0.3% m/m SA.