US indices: Has the bullish trend broken?

Formally, inflation figures and lower-than-forecast expectations helped the market to find ground for a rebound. However, the declines of the previous days may have broken the backbone of the bull market. A couple of technical signals indicate this.

Primarily, there is a series of 11 sessions of declines in the Dow Jones. This is one of the most sustained selloffs in the history of the index. The decline has not been particularly intense most of the time, except on 18 December when markets were pressured by a change in expectations from the Fed. This acceleration in the decline coincided with the index falling below its 50-day moving average, from which the index had been bouncing since August. On this indication, we can talk about the breaking of the medium-term uptrend, opening the way to the 200-day. It passes through 40800 and aims upwards to 41000 by the end of the year.

The S&P500 is fighting for the 50-day moving average, remaining below the 6000 level. In this case, the upward trend is not broken yet, as the market reaction to the relatively positive news on Friday brought the index back to its trend curve.

A similar technical picture is even stronger in the Nasdaq100, which was approaching the 50-day MA at its lowest point but bounced back impressively on Friday.

The outlook is most concerning for the Russell 2000. This index of small stock market companies has erased all gains since the Republican election victory, losing over 10.5% from a peak in early December to a bottom last Friday. As in the Dow Jones, a break below the 50-day moving average accelerated the sell-off. This index is approaching its 200-day average (now at 2175). It has been trading above this curve since last December, making it an important support level: buying intensified as it approached it.

On a positive note, the Fear and Greed Index fell into the extreme fear area late last week. This is deep enough to provide a reset for the markets, but it is important to understand whether this is the start of a bear market.

So far, the stock markets have been unimpressive, and we cannot say whether the bull or bear camp is dominant. But by the end of the year, the picture will become clearer.