US government shutdown poised to end, AU and GU data in focus

US Treasuries caught a bid on Tuesday, and the USD traded lower after private-sector ADP US jobs data showed companies shed around 11,000 jobs weekly in October. Investors are still pricing in around 16 bps of easing for the December Fed meeting (65% probability).

Asia-Pac Stock markets remained optimistic overnight, bolstered by softer US employment numbers and confidence surrounding a potential government reopening. Naturally, market participants remain cautious about positioning ahead of an anticipated deluge of official economic indicators once government agencies fully resume operations.

Has the longest US government shutdown come to an end?

The Senate approved temporary funding legislation that now requires House approval. If passed, the measure would maintain most government operations until late January, with some agencies funded until September.

What does the end of the US government shutdown mean for key asset classes? This would likely prompt a boost in risk appetite, leading to a rally in Stock market benchmarks. You only have to look at this week’s opening gap in the S&P 500, up 1.5%. I would also expect the USD to be bid, with Gold and Bonds catching a leg lower.

Aussie jobs and UK growth numbers in focus tomorrow

Tomorrow’s agenda includes Australian jobs data for October at 12:30 am GMT and the September UK GDP at 7:00 am.

As shown in the calendar below, Australian unemployment is expected to have eased to 4.4% from 4.5% in September, with job creation anticipated to increase by 20,000 from 14,900.

Heading into this event, markets are not expecting much from the RBA in terms of rate cuts this year or in 2026 amid persistent inflation and economic resilience – a mere 3 bps of easing is priced in for the December meeting. Consequently, I do not see this data materially impacting pricing, and therefore, on a large enough deviation, I am expecting only a scalp opportunity at best. Ultimately, I will be watching the maximum and minimum estimates closely, and will largely be focussing on the AUD/NZD cross.

A little later tomorrow, UK GDP numbers cross the wires, which, of course, follow the weaker-than-expected jobs data released earlier this week.

With the labour market softening, sticky inflation, stagnant growth and elevated wages, this echoes a stagflation environment. We also have the Autumn Budget up later this month, which is expected to be negative for the GBP. In terms of market pricing for the BoE, 20 bps worth of cuts are priced in for December’s meeting (76% probability), with a total of 66 bps implied for the end of 2026.

Per the calendar below, economists are expecting the MM print to show no change, from meagre growth of 0.1% in August. Consensus also expects modest quarterly expansion (Q3) of 0.2% (down from 0.3% in Q2). Given the lack of volatility from the UK employment report – which surprised me, as it was a textbook shorting opportunity – I feel traders will need to see more pronounced deviations to get involved, with at least the maximum or minimum estimates reached. Furthermore, given where the UK economy is right now and the upcoming Budget, a miss in the data could offer more bang for your buck for GBP shorts (primarily looking at EUR/GBP longs or GBP/NZD short plays). This may also prompt money markets to fully price in a BoE rate cut next month.

LSEG data