US futures lower ahead of FOMC decision and Q4 treasury quarterly refunding announcement

Notes/observations

- Awaiting two substantial US events, FOMC rate decision and US Treasury quarterly funding announcement. Fed Chair Powell to speak after.

- European ‘All Saints’ holiday for some of Europe but market remain open. Event reducing corporate news flow and market liquidity.

- Verbal FX intervention from Japan senior officials stemmed collapse of JPY after BoJ decision. USD/JPY stabilized throughout Asia/EU sessions.

- EU Earnings Recap: Asos (internet retail) lower after FY24 and mid-term guidance underwhelms; GSK (drug manufacturer) higher after top and bottom line beat and guidance raise, Op profit +83%; Aston Martin (autos) lower after Q3 miss and cut to FY23 volume growth due to production delays, Next (apparel retail) higher after guidance raise.

- Asia closed mixed with Nikkei225 out-performing at +2.4%. EU indices are -0.1% to +0.2%. US futures are -0.4%. Gold -0.1%, DXY +0.1%; Commodity: Brent +0.9%, WTI +0.9%, TTF -1.4%; Crypto: BTC +0.1%, ETH +0.1%.

Asia

- China Oct Caixin PMI Manufacturing: 49.5 v 50.6 prior (1st contraction in 3 months).

- Japan Oct Final PMI Manufacturing: 48.7 v 48.5 prelim (confirmed 5th month of contraction).

- Australia Oct Final PMI Manufacturing: 48.2 v 48.0 prelim (confirmed 8th month of contraction).

- Australia Sept Building Approvals M/M: -4.6%v 7.0% prior.

- New Zealand Q3 Unemployment Rate: 3.9% v 3.6% prior; Employment Change Q/Q: -0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 3.2%e.

- South Korea Oct Trade Balance: +$1.6B v -$1.7Be; Exports Y/Y: 5.1% v 6.1%e; Imports Y/Y: -9.7% v -2.1%e.

- Japan top FX Diplomat Kanda reiterated that could not explain FX moves by fundamentals; ready to take necessary actions if needed.

- Japan PM Kishida’s government said to be putting together an economic package that should come in at about $112.2B.

- Japan total economic package is expected to equal ~¥34.4T - Japanese press.

- IMF recommended that RBA tighten further; citing inflation.

- China PBoC: Outstanding property loans slowdown have stabilized at end-Sept.

-Thailand said to offer tax cuts on imported EVs during 2024-25 - press.

Conflicts/tensions

- US Sec of State Blinken to travel again to Israel on Fri, Nov 3rd for meetings with Israel govt; will also make other stops in region.

- NATO Sec Gen Stoltenberg: Does not want to predict when Sweden will join NATO, it depends on Turkish parliament.

- Yemen declared war against Israel.

- Israeli PM Netanyahu said Gaza war will be long but will be fought until victory.

Europe

- UK Govt reportedly scraps guarantees on £979M (~$1.2B) of bank loans handed out during COVID - press.

- Portugal's parliament approved government's 2024 budget bill.

- Swedish bankruptcies reportedly reach highest level since 1999 - press.

- Turkey Pres Erdogan said Turkey will slow inflation to single digits; Businesses should take part in fight against inflation.

- Serbia Pres sets early general election date on Dec 17th - press.

Americas

- US Senior White House Official said there is an agreement in principle for Biden-Xi meeting in San Francisco in November; we are still working through important details needed to finalize those plans.

- US Sec of State Blinken reportedly to visit South Korea on Nov 8-9th - press.

- WSJ's Timiraos said Powell likely to say they hope for continued slowdown in inflation and signs that economic activity and hiring are cooling after brisk growth during the July-through-September period.

- Colombia Central Bank left Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 13.25%; as expected.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.43% at 435.54, FTSE +0.06% at 7,325.85, DAX +0.12% at 14,828.45, CAC-40 +0.11% at 6,893.15, IBEX-35 +0.13% at 9,029.00, FTSE MIB -0.11% at 27,711.00, SMI +0.54% at 10,447.50, S&P 500 Futures -0.37%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices open higher across the board; public holiday in many European countries, but bourses open; sectors leading the way into the green include consumer discretionary and industrials; among lagging sectors are communication services and utilities; technology sector under pressure following disappointing results from AMD yesterday; Arix to be acquired by RTW Biotech; GSK (raised guidance) enters agreement with JNJ to license bepirovisen; reportedly Iren in talks to acquire Egea; focus on FOMC decision later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Qualcomm, Mondelez, CVS Health, and Airbnb.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Next [NXT.UK] +3.5% (earnings), Asos [ASC.UK] -4.0% (Q3 trading update, guidance; analyst action).

- Energy: Orsted [ORSTED.DK] -18.5% (ceases development of its US offshore wind projects Ocean Wind 1 and 2 in New Jersey), BP [BP.UK] -1.5% (analyst action).

- Healthcare: GSK [GSK.UK] +2.0% (earnings).

- Industrials: Aston Martin [AML.UK] -3.0% (earnings), Skanska [SKAB.SE] -13.0% (earnings), Heijmans [HEIJM.NL] +2.5% (trading update; raises outlook).

- Technology: STMicroelectronics [STM.FR] +1.5% (analyst action; AMD results).

Speakers

- RBNZ Dep Gov Hawkesby said Slow China demand impacting commodity prices; the system can cope with much higher jobless rates.

- ECB's de Guindos (Spain) said today's (Oct 31st) inflation number was good news.

- ECB’s Nagel (Germany) said not yet possible to say if rates at peak level.

Currencies/fixed income

- USD and most pairs are trading sideways ahead of FOMC rate decision and US treasury quarterly refunding announcement.

- GBP/USD trades flat at 1.2150 ahead of final manufacturing PMI reading.

- USD/JPY consolidating yesterday’s gains after verbal FX intervention from JP officials overnight, last seen at 151.20.

- EUR/USD slightly lower after various European PMI readings came in weak. Trades 1.0560.

Economic data

-00:00 (ID) Indonesia Oct CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.6%e.

-00:45 (HK) Macau Oct Casino Rev Y/Y: +400.2% v +392.0%e.

-01:00 (IN) India Oct PMI Manufacturing: 55.5 v 57.5 prior (28th month of expansion but lowest since Feb 2023).

- 02:00 (RU) Russia Oct Manufacturing PMI: 53.8 v 54.5 prior.

- 02:00 (NL) Netherlands Oct Manufacturing PMI: 43.8 v 43.6 prior.

- 03:00 (UK) Oct Nationwide House Price Index M/M: +0.9% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -3.3% v -4.8%e.

- 03:00 (TR) Turkey Oct Manufacturing PMI: 48.4 v 49.6 prior (4th straight contraction).

- 03:30 (SE) Sweden Oct PMI Manufacturing: 45.7 v 43.3 prior.

- 03:30 (TH) Thailand Oct Business Sentiment Index: 48.9 v 50.4 prior.

- 04:30 (CH) Swiss Oct PMI Manufacturing: 40.6 v 45.0e.

- 04:30 (CZ) Czech Oct Manufacturing PMI: 42.0 v 42.4e.

- 04:30 (HK) Hong Kong Sept Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 13.0% v 13.7% prior; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 10.1% v 11.0% prior.

- 04:45 (NG) Nigeria Oct Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 v 51.1 prior.

- 05:00 (GR) Greece Oct Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 v 50.3 prior.

- 05:00 (ZA) South Africa Oct Manufacturing PMI: 45.4 v 45.4 prior.

- 05:00 (NO) Norway Oct PMI Manufacturing: 47.9 v 52.5 prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (AU) Australia sells A$800M v A$800M indicated in 4.50% Apr 2033 bonds; Avg Yield: 4.9521% v 4.0371% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.81x v 3.70x prior.

- (TH) Thailand sells THB7.92B vs. THB8.0B indicated in Jun 2055 bonds; Avg Yield: 4.0299%; bid-to-cover: 1.36x.

- (VN) Vietnam Finance Ministry sells total VNM3.85T in 5-year, 10-year and 15-year bonds.

- (IN) India sold total INR240B vs. INR240B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

Looking ahead

- 05:30 (UK) Oct Final Manufacturing PMI: 45.2e v 45.2 prelim.

- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing.

- 06:00 (EU) ECB, BOE and SNB hold weekly 7-day USD Liquidity Tender.

- 06:00 (SE) Sweden to sell combined SEK15B in 3-month and 9-month Bills.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell 4.5% Jun 2028 Gilts.

- 06:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell €3.0B in 2.4% Nov 2030 Bunds.

- 06:30 (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell €625M indicated in 3-month Bills.

- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bonds.

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 27th: No est v -1.0% prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior.

- 08:15 (US) Oct ADP Employment Change: +135Ke v +89K prior.

- 08:40 (CH) SNB President Jordan with member Gerlach.

- 09:00 (CZ) Czech Oct Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -180.7B prior.

- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.1 prior.

- 09:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 09:30 (CA) Canada Oct Manufacturing PMI: No est v 47.5 prior.

- 09:45 (US) Oct Final S&P Manufacturing PMI: No est v 50.0 prelim.

- 10:00 (US) Oct ISM Manufacturing: 49.0e v 49.0 prior; Prices Paid: No est v 43.8 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Sept JOLTS Job Openings: No est v 9.61M prior- 10:00 (US) Sept Construction Spending M/M: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.8 prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Total Remittances: No est v $5.56B prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Oct PMI Manufacturing: No est v 47.8 prior.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Exports: No est v $3.9B prior.

- 11:00 (PE) Peru Oct CPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.0% prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 17-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.0% prior; Aug Real Wages Y/Y: No est v 9.2% prior.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Sept Real Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 11.0% prior.

- 13:00 (IT) Italy Oct New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 22.8% prior.

- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Target Range unchanged at 5.25-5.50%.

- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Trade Balance: No est v $8.9B prior; Exports: No est v $28.4B prior; Imports: No est v $19.5B prior.

- 14:00 (MX) Mexico Oct IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 51.5 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 53.3 prior.

- 14:30 (US) Fed Chair Powell post rate decision press conference.

- 17:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Selic Target Rate by 50bps to 12.25%.

- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Oct CPI M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.7% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: No est v 3.3% prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan end-Oct Monetary Base: No est v ¥672.6T prior.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Sept Trade Balance (A$): No est v 9.6B prior; Exports M/M: No est v 4% prior; Imports M/M: No est v 0% prior.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Sept Home Loans Value M/M: No est v 2.2% prior; Owner-Occupier Loan Value M/M: No est v 2.6% prior; Investor Loan Value M/M: No est v 1.6% prior.