Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
US Dollar Index
The dollar index remains in a sideways mode for the third consecutive day and moving within a narrow range, just above new multi-month low.
Near-term price action slowed ahead of key event – Fed interest rate decision – which is expected to define fresh direction.
Technical picture on daily chart is firmly bearish as negative momentum continues to strengthen and MA’s are in bearish configuration (freshly formed 10/20DMA bear cross and converged 100/200DMA’s about to form a death cross), maintaining downside pressure and favoring scenario of bearish continuation.
However, bears need to clearly break pivotal supports at 100.33/00 (200WMA / psychological) to resume larger downtrend and focus on next technical support at 98.92 (Fibo 61.8% of 89.15/114.72 2021/2022 uptrend.
Immediate resistance lays at 100.68 (recent range top) with 101.00 zone (round figure / falling 10/20 DMA’s) marking the first pivot.
Bears are expected to remain fully in play while the price stays below this level, while break higher would generate initial warning.
The US central bank is expected to eventually start its policy easing cycle and make the first rate cut in more than four years, though with high uncertainty about the size of rate cut, as bets for cuts either by 25 or 50 basis points, recently moved in a large swings on quick changes in sentiment.
The latest numbers showed that bets for larger rate cut rose significantly in past few days, adding to hopes that the US policymakers may opt for more aggressive action today.
Growing concerns that the US economy might be in worse condition than initially thought, would add to such scenario (50 basis points cut) in which the dollar would come under fresh pressure.
Markets will also focus on the tone of Fed’s statement and following press conference, as well as signals for the next steps (markets expect more than 100 basis points cuts by the end of the year) which would contribute to overall picture.
Res: 100.68; 101.00; 101.46; 101.84.
Sup: 100.22; 100.00; 98.92; 98.36.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD: Door open to extra losses
AUD/USD remained on the back foot on Tuesday, down for the third day in a row and retreating to five-day lows near the key 0.6500 support, always amid the resurgence of the strong demand for the US Dollar, this time underpinned by higher US inflation readings in June.
EUR/USD: Further weakness could extend to 1.1460
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD resumed its negative trend by falling below the crucial support at 1.1600 the figure and reaching fresh three-week lows against the background of a stronger Greenback. So far in July, the pair has only closed higher on two occasions.
Gold's selling pressure picks up pace, focus on $3,320
Gold prices now lose the grip and prompt the precious metal to retreat to daily troughs near the $3,320 mark per troy ounce. The increasing selling pressure around the yellow metal comes in response to a stronger US Dollar, rising US yields across the curcve, and the idea that the Fed might remain cautious for longer.
Ripple Prediction: XRP eyes breakout past $3.00 amid 'Crypto Week'
Ripple (XRP) drops below $3.00 on Tuesday, exchanging hands at $2.87 during the American session. The volatility follows XRP's rally, which tagged a weekly high of $3.03 the previous day, reflecting investors' desire to de-risk in the broader cryptocurrency market.
China’s first-half growth remains on track, though activity data signals caution
China's second-quarter GDP beat forecasts again with a 5.2% year-on-year growth, driven by strong trade and industrial production. Yet sharper-than-expected slowdowns in fixed-asset investment and retail sales and falling property prices are a concern.
Best Brokers for EUR/USD Trading
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.