The below is the daily chart of US 2-Yr. Treasury yield. The red shaded area is characteristic of a mark-down phase i.e. the yield was declining. The note now finds itself in a sideways consolidation (blue shaded area). Analysis of the 2-Yr. note is instructive because it is sensitive to the Fed’s monetary policy bias. We know that the Fed has moved away from a hawkish policy, which is reflected by the current consolidation. However, we note that the RSI is moving towards 50. If it crosses above this level and the green 5-day EMA crosses above the orange 10-day EMA it introduces a possibility that the market is expecting the Fed to revert back to a hawkish policy. This would be an interesting development and we continue to monitor.
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EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.