The Federal Reserve releases the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) following the last meeting of the quarter. These forecasts are closely scrutinized as they include the “dot plots”, i.e. the median trajectory of the medium-term policy rate by the members of the Committee. The Q4 2023 projections included three rate cuts (of 25 bps each) in 2024, for a rate target of 4.6% at year-end. At the same time, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, noted progress on the inflation front (CPI at +3.2% y/y in Q4 2023, v. +7.1% y/y a year earlier), but refused to declare victory.
The prospect of rate cuts has brought a wave of optimism to markets. According to the Fed Funds Implied Rate, derived from futures contracts traded on federal funds, as of 12th January 2024, markets were pricing six to seven rate cuts in 2024 (dark line on the chart), with the first one occurring as early as the March FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, Fed officials attempted to dampen this optimism during their public appearances.
However, inflation data released thereafter surprised on the upside, reporting a monthly acceleration in January (+0.3% m/m) and February 2024 (+0.4% m/m), a pace inconsistent with the 2% target. In February, headline and core inflation were still too high for comfort, at +3.2% y/y and +3.9% y/y respectively (CPI measure by the BLS). This has led to a significant cooling of rate cuts expectations by the markets, which have, eventually, gradually aligned with those from the SEP. In the meantime, the US economy has continued to prove robust too, while the rebalancing of the labour market does not constitute to date a deterioration likely to call for a monetary policy response (with respect to the objective of full employment in the Fed’s dual mandate).
The SEP from March 2024 does not contain any change related to the 2024 number of rate cuts according to the headline figure. The median remains at 4.6%, while Powell expressed confidence about the disinflation trajectory despite the mixed progress seen in the latest data. However, FOMC members look less confident regarding the number of rate cuts they are forecasting. The group of those anticipating fewer than three cuts expanded by one member (9 out of 19 compared with 8 before) and the group of those planning more has only one member left (previously 5). As for markets expectations, they now appear to be slightly more pessimistic than the FOMC projections, with a 4.7% target rate at the end of 2024 (between two and three cuts, green line on the chart), and a probability only slightly above 50% that the first cut will occur in June.
BNP Paribas is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of its designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. The information and opinions contained in this report have been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or solicitation to buy any securities or other investment. Information and opinions contained in the report are published for the assistance of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient, they are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. No BNP Paribas Group Company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. All estimates and opinions included in this report constitute our judgements as of the date of this report. BNP Paribas and their affiliates ("collectively "BNP Paribas") may make a market in, or may, as principal or agent, buy or sell securities of the issuers mentioned in this report or derivatives thereon. BNP Paribas may have a financial interest in the issuers mentioned in this report, including a long or short position in their securities, and or options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. BNP Paribas, including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer, director or in an advisory capacity for any issuer mentioned in this report. BNP Paribas may, from time to time, solicit, perform or have performed investment banking, underwriting or other services (including acting as adviser, manager, underwriter or lender) within the last 12 months for any issuer referred to in this report. BNP Paribas, may to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information contained herein, or the research or analysis on which it was based, before its publication. BNP Paribas may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from an issuer mentioned in this report. Any issuer mentioned in this report may have been provided with sections of this report prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy. This report was produced by a BNP Paribas Group Company. This report is for the use of intended recipients and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or delivered or transmitted to any other person without the prior written consent of BNP Paribas. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. Analyst Certification Each analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report, and (ii) no part of the analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed herein. United States: This report is being distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp., or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas that is not registered as a US broker-dealer, to US major institutional investors only. BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, Inc. BNP Paribas Securities Corp. accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-US affiliate only when distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp. United Kingdom: This report has been approved for publication in the United Kingdom by BNP Paribas London Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas London Branch is regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") for the conduct of its designated investment business in the United Kingdom and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. This report is prepared for professional investors and is not intended for Private Customers in the United Kingdom as defined in FSA rules and should not be passed on to any such persons. Japan: This report is being distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas not registered as a financial instruments firm in Japan, to certain financial institutions permitted by regulation. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a financial instruments firm registered according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan and a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-Japan affiliate only when distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch. Hong Kong: This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch is regulated as a Licensed Bank by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and is deemed as a Registered Institution by the Securities and Futures Commission for the conduct of Advising on Securities [Regulated Activity Type 4] under the Securities and Futures Ordinance Transitional Arrangements. Singapore: This report is being distributed in Singapore by BNP Paribas Singapore Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Singapore is a licensed bank regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore is exempted from holding the required licenses to conduct regulated activities and provide financial advisory services under the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisors Act. © BNP Paribas (2011). All rights reserved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD retargets the 0.6600 barrier and above
AUD/USD extended its positive streak for the sixth session in a row at the beginning of the week, managing to retest the transitory 100-day SMA near 0.6580 on the back of the solid performance of the commodity complex.
EUR/USD keeps the bullish bias above 1.0700
EUR/USD rapidly set aside Friday’s decline and regained strong upside traction in response to the marked retracement in the Greenback following the still-unconfirmed FX intervention by the Japanese MoF.
Gold advances for a third consecutive day
Gold fluctuates in a relatively tight channel above $2,330 on Monday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield corrects lower and helps XAU/USD limit its losses ahead of this week's key Fed policy meeting.
Bitcoin price dips to $62K range despite growing international BTC validation via spot ETFs
Bitcoin (BTC) price closed down for four weeks in a row, based on the weekly chart, and could be on track for another red candle this week. The last time it did this was in the middle of the bear market when it fell by 42% within a span of nine weeks.
Japan intervention: Will it work?
Dear Japan Intervenes in the Yen for the first time since November 2022 Will it work? Have we seen a top in USDJPY? Let's go through the charts.