Ukraine deal prospects buoy EUR

Matthew Ryan, CFA Ebury

Rising hopes of a truce deal in Ukraine helped buoy European currencies on Thursday, including the Euro, albeit the moves in markets to the news was relatively limited.

President Trump is set to travel to Moscow next week to discuss the war with Vladimir Putin. Clearly, good news if far from guaranteed to come out of the meeting, but even the fleeting possibility of a move towards peace has been enough to support European assets. This week’s retail sales print came in largely in line with estimates, showing a modest rebound on a monthly basis in June.

This week has been pretty quiet in terms of macroeconomic news out of the bloc, however, and today bodes to be much of the same.

We expect the common currency to consolidate around its recent range as market participants await news out of the US-China trade negotiations. Another delay to the 12th August deadline has been heavily speculated, and we’re likely to receive confirmation of this in the coming days.

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Ebury

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

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