|

Ukraine deal prospects buoy EUR

Rising hopes of a truce deal in Ukraine helped buoy European currencies on Thursday, including the Euro, albeit the moves in markets to the news was relatively limited.

President Trump is set to travel to Moscow next week to discuss the war with Vladimir Putin. Clearly, good news if far from guaranteed to come out of the meeting, but even the fleeting possibility of a move towards peace has been enough to support European assets. This week’s retail sales print came in largely in line with estimates, showing a modest rebound on a monthly basis in June.

This week has been pretty quiet in terms of macroeconomic news out of the bloc, however, and today bodes to be much of the same.

We expect the common currency to consolidate around its recent range as market participants await news out of the US-China trade negotiations. Another delay to the 12th August deadline has been heavily speculated, and we’re likely to receive confirmation of this in the coming days.

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

More from Matthew Ryan, CFA
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD flatlines below 1.1800 amid trading lull, awaits Fed Minutes

EUR/USD trades around a flatline below 1.1800 in European trading on Tuesday. The pair lacks any trading impetus as the US Dollar moves little amid market caution ahead of the Fed's December Meeting Minutes release, which could offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s 2026 outlook.

GBP/USD retakes 1.3500 despite the year-end grind

GBP/USD finds fresh demand and retakes 1.3500 on Tuesday as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Despite the latest uptick, the pair is unlikely to see further progress due to the year-end holiday volumes.

Gold holds the bounce on Fed rate cut bets, safe-haven flows

Gold holds the rebound near $4,350 in the European trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers some lost ground after falling 4.5% in the previous session, which was Gold's largest single-day loss since October. Increased margin requirements on gold and silver futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, one of the world’s largest trading floors for commodities, prompted widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Tron steadies as Justin Sun invests $18 million in Tron Inc.

Tron (TRX) trades above $0.2800 at press time on Monday, hovering below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2859.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).