UK GDP forecast to rise in Q3, 2018

The U.S. dollar was seen edging higher on Thursday. On the economic front, data included the German trade balance which rose 17.6 billion. This was smaller than the forecasts of 18.2 billion.

The European Commission released its economic forecasts where it painted a grim picture. According to the report, GDP forecasts for 2018 and 2019 were lowered due to external risks such as the U.S. economy and trade wars as well as internal risks such as Italy's budget deficit.

The euro currency was seen trading on the back foot for the most part.

The Fed's meeting was the big item on the calendar. As widely expected, the central bank left interest rates unchanged at 2.0% - 2.25%. The Fed maintained its view that interest rates would be hiked once again in December.

Earlier today, China's inflation data showed that consumer prices rose 2.5% matching estimates. This was the same pace of increase compared to the previous month on an annualized basis. China’s PPI, however, continued to decline, rising just 3.3%, down from 3.6% previously.

As the week comes to an end, the markets look to a busy Friday in store. Economic data on the day will see the UK's advance GDP report for the third quarter. This is also accompanied by the monthly GDP numbers.

After faltering earlier this year, the third quarter GDP is expected to rise 0.6% on a quarterly basis. Manufacturing, industrial and construction output data are also due today.

The NY trading session will see the U.S. producer prices index data. PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% on the month. The final wholesale inventories report is also due later and is forecast to rise 0.3% on the month.

 

EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1344): The EURUSD closed on a bearish note on Thursday following the previous day's doji. Price action is expected to push lower as the falling trend line failed to hold the declines. The downside support at 1.3150 - 1.3000 is expected to be retested once again. However, there is a risk that the support level could fail. This could potentially open the way for the EURUSD to extend the declines even lower.

 

GBPUSD intraday analysis

GBPUSD (1.3046): The British pound failed to capitalize on the gains after clearing the resistance area of 1.3132 - 1.3086. The consolidation above this level pushed the currency pair back below the resistance level. However, the 4-hour Stochastics is seen falling strongly which could signal a rebound on a hidden bullish divergence. A steeper decline following the downside breakout below the 20-period EMA could indicate further correction.

 

XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1218.88): Gold prices were seen drifting lower after the breakout below the rising trend line and the 20-period EMA. Price action could extend the declines down to the previously held lows with the potential to test the lower support at 1207.00. A retest of this support level could potentially mark an end to the downside in price action. However, if the support fails, we anticipate further declines below this level.