UK GDP and Swedish inflation in focus

In focus today

In equity markets, Nvidia's board is meeting on Thursday morning to decide whether to oust CEO Jensen Huang following a revealed affair with a suspected Chinese spy. Overnight multiple medias reported on another affair involving Huang and Kimberly Powell, the chipmaker's vice-president of healthcare. Nvidia's shares dropped over 8% in after-hours trading.

In the UK, GDP data for September and Q3 are due. The UK economy has performed better than expected, with GDP growing by 0.4% m/m in July and 0.1% m/m in August. Retail sales rose by 0.7% q/q in Q3, while PMIs signalled continued, albeit moderate, expansion. Taken together, these point to another solid quarter.

In Sweden, the final October inflation print including all details on the various subcomponents will be released. The flash print showed a substantial downside surprise, with service prices falling 0.3% m/m where recreation and culture stood out at -2.4%. With the release of the full details, we could hopefully gain more insight in whether this is a mere reflection of the inherent volatility in travel-related prices, or a broader slowdown in services inflation.

In the US, it will be a busy day for Fed speakers. Williams (permanent voter) Hammack (voter in 2026, non-voter in 2027), Goolsbee (non-voter in 2026 and voter in 2027), and Daly (non-voter in 2026 and voter in 2027) will all be speaking.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In Japan, annual wholesale inflation in October grew to 7.1% y/y (consensus: 6.5%, prior 6.8%) as high oil prices and AI-related demand pushed up prices for fuel and semiconductors. The yen-based import price index rose 24.8% y/y as the currency's weakness continues to push up the cost of raw material imports.

What happened yesterday

In Sweden, Household consumption rose by 1.2% m/m in October, taking annual growth to 3.3% y/y. Gains were fairly broad-based, with seven of eleven categories increasing. Recreation, sport and culture rose by 6.4% m/m, while clothing, household furnishings and restaurants also recorded strong increases. Transport and housing-related consumption declined.

In geopolitics, Abu Dhabi peace talks between Ukrainian, Russian and US officials ended on Tuesday. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators reported some progress including agreeing to a prisoner swap. US officials noted that there was a lack of trust between Russia and Ukraine and differences in multiple issues including territory remain. Both Russian and Ukrainian officials confirmed that talks between the parties would continue discussions in the future. US representatives Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff will continue onto Moskow on Thursday and meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later in Dublin. While we think it is positive that direct talks took place for the first time since February, we remain sceptical in the short term that a peace deal can be achieved. For more see: Geopolitical Radar: Diplomacy Gaining Ground?, 11 November.

Equities: Global equities had a strong session yesterday up 2.0%, with S&P 500 +1.3%, Nasdaq +1.6% and Stoxx 600 +0.7% closing at a record high. Volatility kept drifting lower. However, this morning looks less comfortable with US futures in the red and Asia being mixed after Nvidia fell almost 9% after hours on reports that its board is preparing to oust Jensen Huang.                                                                                                                  

FI and FX: Yesterday, there was a modest rise in European government bond yields in the long end of the curve, while there was a modest rise in short end of the yield curve. The US bond market was closed for Veterans Day and there were few key economic data. The USD continued to strengthen against the Euro and the yen. This morning, we have seen a modest rise in US Treasury yields in the front end in Asian trading hours, while the dollar has remained firm versus both the Euro and yen.