CEE: Oil and Gas prices development

On the radar

• Producer prices grew by 8.9% y/y in Croatia.
• Today, Romania’s and Serbia’s central banks hold a rate setting meetings.
• Romania will show October’s inflation at 8 AM CET while Serbia will release CPI at noon CET.
• Romania and Slovakia will publish wage growth in September.

Economic developments

Today we get to see inflation rate in October in last two CEE countries namely in Romania and Serbia. Data arrives shortly before the central banks’ decision on interest rates. Before we see inflation numbers and be able to wrap up October’s trends, we look at oil and gas prices trends. In general, energy prices have lately retreated from their 2026 peaks but remain significantly above January levels. Brent oil prices are currently 52% higher than at the beginning of the year, compared with a peak increase of 94%, while natural gas prices remain almost three times their January level, despite declining from their peak. Further declines in energy prices would provide a strong disinflationary impulse, reducing both direct energy costs for households and production costs for businesses. However, food prices remain an important upside risk to the inflation outlook. The World Food Price Index has gradually increased throughout 2026 and remains elevated by historical standards. Renewed upward pressure on food prices could offset some of the disinflationary impact of lower energy prices and slow the return of inflation towards central bank targets.

Market movements

Today, in Romania and Serbia central banks hold rate setting meetings. We expect stability of rates in both countries. In Romania, the press release is expected to highlight an upward revision of the near-term inflation forecast, ahead of the publication of the Inflation Report. At the moment, we expect the Romania’s central bank to keep the key policy rate at 6.50% at least until May 2027, as underlying inflationary pressures are likely to remain persistent. Any policy easing will likely depend on two key conditions: continued fiscal consolidation in Romania and the end of the monetary tightening cycle in the euro area. In Serbia, decisions of major central banks are also an important factor regarding monetary policy outlook. As for other news, in Czechia the lower house budget committee recommended approving the 2027 budget with a CZK 386 billion deficit. In Croatia, Prime Minister Plenkovic told the cabinet that the 2027 draft budget targets an unchanged general-government deficit of 2.9% of GDP and a further decline in public debt to 55.3% of GDP. Further, subscriptions to the retail Treasury bills opened on November 9 (offering 2.85% annual yield) have exceeded €500 million.

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