UK budget and FOMC day

EU mid-market update: UK budget and FOMC day; SK hynix says DRAM and HBM are sold out through 2029 as Kospi closes above 6,000 on a 6.6% gain; Alphabet’s Q3 earnings after the close may show whether TPU sales outside Google and reportedly to OpenAI.

The brief

- Today’s UK Budget is expected to raise the bank surcharge to 8% from 3% and rebuild fiscal headroom to about £15B, though the gilt issuance plan matters more than the speech: less long-dated supply would support the 30-year, while more would steepen the curve and weigh on sterling. The Fed follows and is expected to hold at 3.75–4.00% with hawkish dissents, with a December hike still about 80% priced. Reported US preparations for a short, intense strike on Iran after the 3 November midterms have pushed Brent back above $115, and Europe is taking the hit twice, through oil and through a euro at a 17-month low of $1.111 ahead of tomorrow’s ECB. In Asia, SK hynix says memory is sold out through 2029, sending the Kospi up 6.6% past 6,000, as the chip squeeze spreads to equipment makers and device makers.

Observations in full

- The Fed meets at 14:00 ET and is expected to hold at 3.75-4.00%, with hawkish dissents. Reuters polled 94 of 100 economists for a hold, and futures price about 9% for a hike today against roughly 80% by December. Every respondent in the Reuters poll expects a December move. The gap between today and December reflects the Nov 3 midterms and the Dec 9-10 projections, since the data alone would support a hike. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented for a hike in July, and Logan has since said rates need to rise by at least another 50bps, so two or three hawkish dissents are likely if the Fed holds. September CPI rose 0.6% m/m to 3.7% y/y, with core up 0.3% to 2.6%, and core PCE due tomorrow is expected at about 3.1% y/y. Payrolls rose only 29k with unemployment up to 4.2%, but Tuesday’s data ran hot. Conference Board confidence came in at 91.7 against 81.0 expected, new home sales at 676k, Redbook same-store sales are running +9.6% month to date, and GDPNow has Q3 at 3.4%. Warsh opposes explicit forward guidance, so any reason added to the statement, such as AI-driven demand, would itself be read as guidance. ING expects him to avoid saying that wider credit spreads and weaker equities reduce the need to hike, after criticism of his July comments. The 5-year auction stopped about 16bps below September at 4.845%, and Treasury accepted the maximum $6B in its long-end buyback for a fourth time. The Bank of Canada also decides today, after reports that Washington and Ottawa are close to a Section 232 deal.

- UK Chancellor Healey’s Budget at 08:30 ET is expected to be small on tax and large on financing. The consensus tax package is about £5-6B, with income tax, employee NICs, VAT and corporation tax rates all ruled out. The main revenue items are the bank surcharge rising to 8% from 3%, worth about £2.2B, higher gambling duties and a rule making online marketplaces collect VAT for their sellers, worth about £1B, to fund business-rates relief for high streets. The fuel duty rise is shelved, prescription charges are frozen at £9.90, the National Living Wage rises 3.9%, and the FT reports the planned cut to cash ISA allowances will be reversed. That reversal keeps household savings in bank deposits the same day banks are hit with the higher surcharge. Bank shares fell more than 8% in the month to Oct 20, so part of the surcharge is priced. Consensus has OBR headroom rebuilt to about £15B from £10-12B before measures, against £23.6B in March. The gilt remit matters more than the speech. The median of all 15 primary dealers is only a £3.4B increase in 2026-27 gilt sales to £249.6B, with net T-bills up £5B. That is modest against the £14B rise in this year’s borrowing the same dealers expect, and long gilts are forecast below 7% of issuance, the lowest share since 1990. Pushing supply into bills and short gilts protects the 30-year, at 5.89% after touching 6.04% on Oct 7. It also makes the Treasury’s interest bill more sensitive to Bank Rate a week before a BoE hike to 4.00% that is about 90% priced. Dealers already see the 2027-28 financing requirement up £27B to £334B. The downside risks are headroom below £10B, tightening deferred to 2028 or later, an OBR productivity downgrade under its new chair, or Burnham’s floated rise in the personal allowance; the TTN preview puts the 10-year at risk of moving toward 5.9% from 5.35% in that case. Yesterday’s 2032 gilt auction cleared at 5.036% against 4.843% previously, with cover of 3.51x.

- Washington and Doha are working both tracks before Nov 3. The WSJ reported the US has warned Gulf states of a possible “short, intense military campaign” against Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites after the midterms. It is moving troops from exposed bases, bringing a Patriot battery from Texas and sending another carrier group and Marine expeditionary unit to join about 20 warships next month. Qatar handed Tehran a new seven-day draft on Sunday, with daily confidence-building steps and multiple guarantors, and expects a reply by the end of the week. Khamenei called for “meeting conditions to end the war”. Iran’s new Persian Gulf Strait Authority says it will take legal action against Sinokor vessels for transit “violations”, so Tehran is now running Hormuz as a toll-and-permit regime with named shipowners. The Pentagon puts the cost of operations at more than $47B. A Houthi missile targeted Taif, and interception debris damaged property in Riyadh. QatarEnergy extended force majeure on LNG to Italy’s Edison through December.

-Tuesday’s AI rebound faded after the close, and Korea took it over overnight. S&P futures settled +0.6% at 7,758 and Nasdaq +1.3% at 29,812 on Tuesday. Conference Board confidence came in at 91.7 against 81.0 expected, new home sales at 676k against 651k, and the 5-year auction stopped at 4.845% against 5.003% at the prior sale, with cover up to 2.33x. Nasdaq futures reopened -1.3% at 29,422 after Broadcom’s guarantee filing, a 6.5% after-hours drop in Seagate and 7% in NXP, all on beats. S&P futures reopened -0.5%. Fed funds futures price 9.4% for a hike at today’s FOMC, and the 10-year is at 5.02%. Treasury accepted the maximum $6B in its long-end liquidity buyback for a fourth time, against $10.7B offered. Gold is back above $4,000 and Bitcoin above $80k. Overnight Kospi rose 6.6% to 6,012, with Samsung +8.6% and an upside sidecar triggered at +5%. The Nikkei rose 1.1% to 63,954 and Shanghai 0.9%, as Chinese pension funds and insurers reportedly stepped up A-share buying. Brent is at $109.78 ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, which is expected to hold targets.

- SK hynix says memory is sold out through 2029 and expects the shortage to run to 2030, while warning that memory costs are now cutting device shipments. Q3 operating profit was KRW83.3T against 77.5T expected on revenue of KRW104.6T, an operating margin of 80% against 76% in Q2. DRAM prices rose 20% q/q and NAND prices by the mid-20s. Net profit of KRW39.5T missed the 59.7T consensus by a third even as operating profit beat. The company is returning about KRW100T for 2026: a KRW14T Q3 dividend, including a KRW10,000-per-share special payout from its Kioxia gains, and a KRW20T buyback. Half that buyback is earmarked for employee compensation, which is how the company is paying the workforce whose unions forced profit-sharing on Micron. Hynix guided FY27 capex up “significantly”, HBM revenue up “sharply” and Q4 DRAM shipments up by the mid-20s, and it expects PC and smartphone shipments to fall on memory costs. Advantest raised FY operating profit guidance to ¥967B at a 51.9% margin, will reach 10,000 SoC testers a year ahead of schedule, and said its own H2 margin carries rising memory component costs. The memory shortage is now hitting the supply chain that tests and assembles the chips.

- Broadcom’s filing sets the terms of the Anthropic chip SPV: the banks are lending against Broadcom. The SPV’s maximum liability on deployment is about $43B undiscounted, roughly 68% of the $63B facility. If the lessee defaults, Broadcom pays the gap between 72.5% of outstanding lease amounts and whatever the repossessed AI racks fetch on sale. The lenders’ recovery floor therefore depends on the secondhand price of custom accelerators, an asset with no market until the first default creates one. That is the same chip family whose resale value Anthropic’s lessors would also depend on under the up to $42B of convertible notes the S-1 earmarks for rent. Musk said on Sunday that AI lending has shut for borrowers without non-AI revenue, and neocloud Argentum AI is reportedly negotiating $5B of chip financing. A guarantee from a chip vendor is now what gets these deals done. Separately, Ares is reportedly buying Apollo’s MidCap Financial for about $2.5B, below the roughly $3B Apollo sought, after another 3.2% NAV drop. Anthropic picked JPMorgan for its US retail tranche and Citi for international retail, and is reportedly weighing 15-20% of the IPO for retail investors. The GSA expanded its OneGov agreement with Anthropic to consumption pricing with no minimum orders.

- Google’s TPUs are spreading beyond Google Cloud, and Alphabet and Microsoft report tonight. At AI World, Oracle said OCI will provide power, cooling and networking for Google TPUs from 2027, which makes Oracle a landlord for a rival’s silicon. Hours later The Information reported OpenAI plans to buy TPUs outright, after saying in 2025 it had no plan to deploy them at scale. Broadcom co-designs the TPU, the custom-chip programs of both Anthropic and OpenAI run through it, and its balance sheet now backs the leasing. Oracle also put OpenAI models and Codex into its applications, with Altman keynoting, and Nvidia is expanding OCI superclusters to multi-gigawatt Vera Rubin scale. Alphabet’s call is at 16:30 ET: TPU external sales, the Cloud backlog and capex will show how much of Google’s chip business now leaves its own data centres. Microsoft reports after the close following reports of buyout offers to about 60k staff. Meta’s AI director Patel is reportedly leaving to build an Office and Workspace competitor.

- Israel’s count has turned against the exit polls. With about half the vote counted, Channel 12 shows Netanyahu’s bloc at 55 seats against 50 for Eisenkot’s, while the exit polls had the blocs tied and Arab-led parties at 18. Likud is set to be the largest party with about 25 seats. Eisenkot said the public “voted for change”, and Netanyahu said he will wait for real results and form a “strong, right-wing national government”. Trump claimed his endorsement “turned the tide”. USD/ILS rose about 2% to 3.0876. At 55 seats Netanyahu needs six more from outside his bloc, and no defector has been named. That would extend the caretaker period through the WSJ’s post-midterm strike window either way.

- Russian diesel is now going to the US with Kyiv’s consent. Zelenskyy said Ukraine will not attack Russian ships carrying diesel to the US, and Novak offered “any volume”. Energy Secretary Wright said Russia cannot export diesel yet and that the sanctions suspension is temporary, while Russian refinery runs are reportedly up 25% since drone strikes stopped in mid-October. The FT reported Washington and Moscow have discussed a Sakhalin oil venture with US majors and US participation in resuming Russian crude sales to Europe through Druzhba. A US-intermediated Druzhba restart would return Russian barrels to Central Europe through American companies. Lavrov said the war will “likely escalate”, and Kyiv’s Patriot request still sits with Hegseth.

- Germany’s 2-year auction fell short of its target the day before the ECB, and the bank lending survey shows credit tightening. The Finanzagentur sold only €3.79B of a €5B Schatz at 3.08%, with bids covering just 1.33x what was offered. The ECB’s Q3 lending survey showed tighter conditions, and German GfK fell to -30.8. Producer prices keep rising: Ireland’s September PPI rose 7.4% y/y, Saint-Gobain said inflation “is still accelerating”, especially in North American transport, and BASF raised FY EBITDA guidance to €7.4-7.8B. BASF also warned Q4 could see “lower demand hits higher energy costs” after oil rose more than 10% in October. The OAT-Bund spread is 158bps with Bunds at 3.38%, and Italy’s is 115bps after a 2028 BTP cleared at 3.55% against 3.64% previously. The ECB decides tomorrow with M3 growth at 3.5%. European banks are splitting along deposit franchises after HSBC’s miss. Deutsche Bank reported a record €1.9B of quarterly net profit with revenue of €8.34B against €8.20B expected. UBS posted underlying pretax profit of $4.08B against $3.52B, said it is increasingly confident of beating its 2026 exit-rate return target with a 17% year-to-date return on CET1, and accelerated buybacks despite tougher Swiss capital rules. Santander’s net profit of €3.43B fell short of a year earlier as Brazil weighed, and the Brazilian finance minister cancelled an LFT auction after calling the post-election FX move ideological.

- Asia-Pacific policy split overnight. The RBNZ held at 2.75% on a 4-3 vote against an expected hike and warned that a weaker NZ$ could import inflation, which sent AUD/NZD higher. Australia’s September CPI rose 4.3% y/y and the Q3 trimmed mean 3.7%, and CBA now forecasts an RBA hike to 4.85% on Nov 3 after Bullock called the labour market “a little tighter”. Danantara, Indonesia’s sovereign fund, has bid for a stake in the Indonesia Stock Exchange while MSCI weighs downgrading the market, and the rupiah hit 18,170. Marcos pledged to defend the peso “as hard as we possibly can”. Cyber attacks have spread from Japan to Korean finance: the FSC said major investment firms, including Mirae Asset, were hacked, and Seoul called an emergency meeting.

- Cross-asset: Broadcom’s 72.5% residual guarantee means the AI chip lease market is now priced on a vendor’s balance sheet and the untested resale value of custom accelerators. SK hynix’s sold-out-to-2029 memory and Advantest’s capacity sprint keep the supply chain priced for shortage while device makers absorb the cost. Google TPUs at Oracle and a planned OpenAI TPU purchase widen the non-Nvidia stack before tonight’s Alphabet and Microsoft results. US data argue for a hawkish hold, while the short Schatz auction and tighter ECB lending survey set up tomorrow’s ECB. Netanyahu’s lead in the count, the WSJ strike warning and Qatar’s seven-day draft keep Brent near $110 even as US-bound Russian diesel and a possible Druzhba restart add supply. Today brings the UK Budget at 08:30 ET, the FOMC at 14:00 ET, the BoC, Microsoft and Alphabet after the close, Oracle’s analyst meeting and a 10-year Bund auction. Tomorrow has the ECB, US Q3 GDP and PCE, Amazon and Intel, with the BOJ that night.

- Asia closed higher with KOSPI at 6.6%. EU indices -0.3% to -1.2%. US futures -0.2% to +0.3%. Gold -0.1%, DXY +0.1%; Commodity: Brent +1.3%, WTI +1.5%; Crypto: BTC +2.2%, ETH +2.6%.

Asia

- New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75% (not expected) for its 1st pause in three decisions under the current tightening cycle. Gov Breman subsequently stressed that further tightening was still likely and might ultimately take rates into restrictive territory if inflation persisted.

- Australia Sept CPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.2%e.

- Australia Q3 CPI Trimmed Mean Q/Q: 1.0% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.6%e.

- South Korea Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.5% v 7.7% prior.

- RBA Gov Bullock stated that Inflation outlook had worsened versus August forecasts; Markets expect another RBA hike by 25bps in November.

Mid-East

- US reportedly advised several Gulf Arab nations to prepare for the possibility of a short but intensive military campaign against Iran following the US midterm elections.

- No clear winner in Israel election. Netanyahu's Likud expected to get the most seats of any single party estimated to win 25 of 120 seats in the Knesset, but Netanyahu's bloc is trailing overall; prospect of a prolonged coalition-building process.

Europe

- Netherlands govt said to be planning to eliminate 25K civil service positions over the next decade as part of an AI-driven efficiency program (approx. 15% of workforce).

Americas

- Pentagon said to estimate: US cost of Iran war operations above $47B.

- Chile Central Bank (BCCH) left the Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 4.50% (as expected) with decision being unanimous.

Energy

- Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: -2.0M v -4.9M prior.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE -0.26% at 10,658.33, DAX -0.05% at 25,577.07, CAC-40 -0.02% at 7,885.76, IBEX-35 -1.28% at 18,915.98, FTSE MIB -0.17% at 49,541.50, SMI -0.37% at 14,543.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.04%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equities stall near the flatline with the STOXX 600 down 0.1%, as positioning ahead of the FOMC decision, where a hold at 3.75% to 4.00% is expected but futures price an 80% chance of a December hike, and after-hours Alphabet and Microsoft results leaves forecast-beating bank earnings to absorb the selling rather than drive a rally. Lenders provide the cushion, with Standard Chartered up 4% after raising income-growth and RoE targets on a 27% Q3 pretax profit increase to $2.25B, Deutsche Bank up 3% on a record nine-month profit, and BNP Paribas up 1.5% on €3.46B net income versus €3.23B expected plus a €1.3B buyback, though Banco Santander’s roughly 4% early slide on results that missed elevated expectations drags the IBEX 35 down about 1.3%. The heaviest losses sit outside banking: Hunting sinks 13% on its second 2026 core-profit cut tied to the Middle East conflict and Saudi attacks, Adyen falls 10.5% as accelerated investment cuts its 2026 EBITDA margin to 50% and kills the medium-term margin target, Sandoz drops 5% on a guidance cut to 5% to 6% amid biosimilar supply constraints, and GSK and Unilever lose 4.5% and 3.5% despite clean beats. The broader setup hinges on Chair Kevin Warsh’s tolerance for energy-driven price pressure ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision, with UBS’s in-line $2.69B profit and Dassault Systèmes’ first guidance raise in two years to 4% to 5% offering little directional signal while ASML, ASM International and BE Semiconductor trade as leveraged proxies for any hyperscaler capex or cloud-monetization disappointment.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: Stellantis [STLAM.IT] +0.5% (Q3 adjusted EBIT of €256m was broadly in line; confirmed 2026 guidance and its target for positive industrial free cash flow in 2027 despite a €4bn quarterly outflow).

Healthcare: Sandoz [SDZ.CH] -5.0% (lowered constant-currency sales-growth guidance to 5%-6% from mid-to-high single digits after Q3 sales missed expectations amid biosimilar supply constraints), GSK [GSK.UK] -4.5% (sold off despite Q3 core EPS of 54.6p versus 50.4p expected and revenue of £8.89bn versus £8.84bn expected).

Technology: Worldline [WLN.FR] +1.0% (Q3 revenue exceeded expectations as merchant-services growth offset the gradual recovery in financial services; confirmed its 2026 outlook), Dassault Systèmes [DSY.FR] +0.5% (delivered its first target increase in two years, lifting 2026 revenue-growth guidance to 4%-5% from 3%-5% and its margin range to 32.5%-32.7%), Adyen [ADYEN.NL] -10.5% (Q3 net revenue beat consensus, but accelerated investment reduced expected 2026 EBITDA margin to 50% and prompted the company to discontinue its medium-term margin objective), Alten [ATE.FR] -1.0% (declined despite lifting its 2026 organic-growth objective to approximately 2% following continued Q3 growth).

Energy: Hunting [HTG.UK] -13.0% (cut its 2026 core-profit forecast for the second time this year, citing the Middle East conflict, attacks in Saudi Arabia and a weaker near-term trading outlook).

Consumer staples: Unilever [ULVR.UK] -3.5% (shares fell despite 5.2% underlying sales growth versus 4.8% expected and a higher volume-growth forecast; the stock also traded ex-dividend), Danone [BN.FR] -0.5% (Q3 organic sales growth of 4.0% beat the 3.7% consensus, but volumes rose only 0.4% and weakness persisted at its Mizone water business in China).

Industrials /defence: Saint-Gobain [SGO.FR] +0.5% (Q3 sales increased, supported by growth across all regions and in construction chemicals).

Financials: Standard Chartered [STAN.UK] +4.0% (raised full-year income-growth and return-on-equity targets after Q3 pretax profit rose 27% to $2.25bn, ahead of expectations, on wealth-management and trading strength), Deutsche Bank [DBK.DE] +3.0% (Q3 post-tax profit rose 2% to €1.9bn, beating expectations for a decline, while nine-month profit reached a record), BNP Paribas [BNP.FR] +1.5% (Q3 net income reached €3.46bn versus €3.23bn expected; announced a €1.3bn buyback as equities and prime-services revenue jumped 50%), Banco Santander [SAN.ES] +1.0% (rebounded from an early post-results selloff following its Q3 earnings release), UBS [UBSG.CH] +0.5% (Q3 net profit of $2.69bn was broadly in line and the bank accelerated completion of its $3bn share-buyback programme to February), Banco Santander [SAN.ES] -4.0% (Q3 results disappointed elevated expectations, sending the shares sharply lower and weighing on the bank-heavy Spanish market).

Speakers

- Hungary Finance Ministry on proposed tax changes on 2027 budget stated to extend sectoral taxes on banking and energy sectors. Sought higher energy and retail levies in 2027.

- Ukraine President Zelenskyy pledged not to attack Russian ships carrying diesel fuel to the US. Any trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi to depend on the US.

- Thailand Central Bank Policy Statement noted that the decision to keep policy steady was unanimous. Current policy rate was appropriate for the economy. Inflation was seen rising until early 2027 but medium-term expectations remained within target. THB currency (Baht) seen stable.

- Thailand Central Bank updated its Staff Projections which raised 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.4% and raised 2027 GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 2.1%. Projections cut 2026 CPI forecast from 2.8% to 2.1% and cut 2027 CPI forecast from 1.4% to 1.3%.

- Qatari mediators said to have presented Iran with new draft deal in Tehran on Sunday; Iran considering the proposal and response was expected by the end of the week.

Currencies

- FX markets focused on key upcoming rate decisions with Fed today, ECB on Thurs and BOJ on Friday. Mid-East tensions remain on the front-burner. More reports circulated that US could be preparing to resume attacks on Iran after the midterm elections due on Nov 3rd. Some tension was eased on reports that Qatari mediators had presented Iran with new draft deal.

- EUR/USD at 1.1125 by mid-session. ECB expected to keep policy steady on Thurs. Dealers noting that markets were starting to doubt the near-term case for ECB rate hikes due to concerns over the French budget outlook.

- GBP/USD at 1.3290 ahead of the UK Autumn Budget speech. Most analysts expected a cautious budget which should leave gilt and FX markets relatively calm as the government had promised to stick to the fiscal rules.

- USD/JPY at157.70 area. BOJ was likely to hold its policy rate at 1.25% at its Oct. 30th decision. Dealers believe that the only reason to pause before tightening further was to avoid back-to-back hikes.

- The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.38%, France 10-year Oat at 4.95% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.33%; 10-year Treasury yield: 5.02%; 10-year JGB: 2.82%.

Economic data

- (FI) Finland Sept House Price Index M/M: 1.0% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -2.2% v -3.6% prior.

- (DE) Germany Nov GfK Consumer Confidence: -30.8 v -30.3.

- (NO) Norway Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v +0.6% prior.

- (NO) Norway Sept Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.5% prior.

- (TR) Turkey Sept Trade Balance: -$5.2B v -$5.2Be.

- (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BOT) left Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 1.00% (as expected).

- (HK) Hong Kong Sept Trade Balance (HKD): -46.3B v -69.0Be; Exports Y/Y: 64.9% v 51.6%e; Imports Y/Y: 57.8% v 52.0%e.

- (AT) Austria Oct Manufacturing PMI: 55.9 v 54.9 prior (8th month of expansion).

- (CH) Swiss Oct UBS Expectations Survey: -15.3 v +2.6 prior.

- (IT) Italy Aug Industrial Sales M/M: -0.9% v +1.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.9% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (IN) India sold total INR230B vs. INR230B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

Looking ahead

- (CO) Colombia Sept Industrial Confidence: No est v 5.8 prior; Retail Confidence: No est v 23.3 prior.

- 05:50 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day USD Liquidity Tender.

- 06:00 (IT) Italy Sept PPI M/M: No est v 3.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.5% prior.

- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing.

- 06:00 (EU) ECB, BOE and SNB hold weekly 7-day USD Liquidity Tender.

- 06:00 (SE) Sweden to sell combined SEK5.0B in 2032 and 2037 SGB bonds.

- 06:00 (NO) Norway to sell combined NOK2.0B in 2028 and 2036 Bonds.

- 06:00 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell combined €4.5B in 6-month bills (2 tranches).

- 06:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 06:30 (IN) India Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 7.3%e v 8.0% prior.

- 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell €5.5B in 3.0% Aug 2036 Bunds.

- 6:30 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds.

- 06:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays.

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 23rd: No est v -5.3% prior.

- 07:00 (FR) France Q3 Total Jobseekers: No est v 3.323M prior.

- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Sept Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.3% prior.

- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bonds.

- 08:30 (US) Sept Advance Goods Trade Balance: -$130.2Be v -$132.1B prior (revised from -$132.6B); Exports M/M: 1.3%e v 2.1% prior (revised from 1.9%); Imports M/M: 2.6%e v 5.4% prior (revised from5.5%).

- 08:30 (US) Sept Preliminary Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Retail Inventories M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior (revised from 0.3%).

- 08:30 (UK) UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Healey Presents Budget (**Note: will also get OBR forecasts and Gilt Remit afterwards).

- 09:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 09:45 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Interest Rates by 25bps to 2/.50%.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 10:30 (CA) BOC Gov Macklem post rate decision press conference.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 17-Week Bills.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 2-Year FRN.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Sept Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.7%e v 3.3% prior.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Sept Unemployment Rate: 2.2%e v 2.2% prior; Aug Real Wages Y/Y: 2.5%e v 3.3% prior.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: -0.3%e v -0.6% prior.

- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Target Range unchanged between 3.75-4.00% range.

- 14:30 (US) Fed Gov Warsh post rate decision press conference.

- 15:00 (EU) ECB chief Lagarde.

- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Manufacturing Business Survey: No est v 99.5 prior; Non-Manufacturing Business Survey: No est v 98.9 prior.

- 20:00 (NZ) New Zealand Oct ANZ Business Confidence: No est v 51.9 prior; Activity Outlook: No est v 47.9 prior.

- 20:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Dep Gov Vincent.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Q3 Export Price Index Q/Q: No est v 1.1% prior; Import Price Index Q/Q: No est v 5.7% prior.

- 22:00 (NZ) New Zealand to sell combined NZ$450M in 2030 and 2037 bonds.

- 23:35 (JP) Japan to sell 2-year JGB Bonds.