Trump's need for adulation outweighs his COVID-19 concerns

Mike “Mish” Shedlock's Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc

Trump is ready to hit the road, Covid-19 or not.

Trump thrives on praise and adulation. He can wait no longer to have his rabid supporters once again cheering at big rallies.

Please note Trump Says He’s Ready to Hit the Road.

Mr. Trump told reporters at an event with business executives on Wednesday that he plans to travel to Arizona next week and Ohio soon after that. “We’re going to start to move around,” he said, adding that he hopes to start holding campaign rallies again.

The president, who before the pandemic regularly traveled on weekends to his Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago, and held campaign rallies around the country, has made no secret of his eagerness to get back on the road. “I’ve been in the White House now for many months,” he said. "And I’d like to get out—as much as I love this, this is the most beautiful house in the world.’

He said he wanted to see a “good old-fashioned, 25,000-person rally” without social distancing. “I can’t imagine a rally where you have every fourth seat full, every six seats are empty for everyone that you have full,” he said. “That wouldn’t look too good.”

Extremely Difficult Setup for Trump to Win in November

How can that possibly matter?

Sure - Trump's core is more rabid than Biden's.
But Sanders could say the same thing.

The election will not be won by the rabid fans, but rather the swing voters.https://t.co/EWsZ497s9E https://t.co/gZwXVYs6WK
— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) April 29, 2020

Trump faces a huge uphill battle at this point. It's an Extremely Difficult Setup for Trump to Win in November.

Note that Fox News gives Biden an 8-point lead in Michigan. This is despite (or because) of soaring Michigan unemployment, perhaps as high as 30%.

For details, please see For details, please see Over 25% of Michigan Workforce Filed For Unemployment.

Yet, Despite Massive Unemployment, Michigan Disagrees With Trump.

Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, has a Covid-19 approval rating of 57%. Liberate Michigan, Liberate Minnesota, and Liberate Virginia backfired.

I discussed the above Tweets in Huge Battle Over Covid-19 Tests and Trump's Liberation Tweets.

Words of Caution

It's not impossible for Trump to win in November, but it is difficult.

These polls are early. November is still 6 months away but the election map, Trump's handing of Covid-19, the recession, and the thought of 4 more years of Trump to swing voters all weigh against Trump.

This is Not 2016

Finally, this is not 2016. Many swing voters gave Trump a nod in in 2016 simply because they despised Hillary.

Many of those same swing voters have had enough of Trump's divisive treatment of allies, his belittling of everyone but himself, and his handling of Covid-19.

Counterproductive Adulation

The amusing thing ais how counterproductive this plan is.

Adoring fans and big rallies will not win Trump the election in November.

Author

Mike “Mish” Shedlock's

Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor for SitkaPacific Capital Management.

GBP/USD advances to 1.3650 region despite weak sales data

GBP/USD trades in positive territory at around 1.3650 in the European session on Friday. Although Retail Sales data from the UK came in weaker than expected, the pair holds its ground, supported by the persistent US Dollar (USD) weakness following the Treasury Department's decision to boost long-term bond purchases earlier in the week.

EUR/USD holds near 1.1700 ahead of PMI data

EUR/USD consolidates its weekly gains at around 1.1700 in the European session on Friday. Investors await preliminary August PMI data from Germany, the Eurozone and the US, while the persistent USD weakness allows the pair to keep its footing.

Gold hits fresh high since June above $4,550 as receding Fed hike bets undermine USD

Gold sticks to modest gains near its highest level since early June, touched earlier this Friday, and trades just above $4,550 heading into the European session. The commodity is looking to build on the breakout momentum above a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average amid a weaker US Dollar. Traders scaled back their bets on an immediate interest rate hike by the Fed after the latest US inflation data released last week signaled signs of cooling price pressures.

Bulls in control with Bitcoin heading toward $80,000, Ethereum $2,500, XRP $1.50

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) are extending their rallies as bullish momentum strengthens and continue to cheer the US Treasury’s decision to double its debt buyback operations. BTC has climbed nearly 20%, ETH over 25% and XRP nearly 30% so far this week.

The great bond-market repricing: Why deficits, geopolitics and AI are driving long-term yields higher

The biggest move in financial markets right now may be happening in an asset class that many equity and FX investors rarely watch closely: government bonds. Long-term yields have surged across the US, Europe, the UK and Japan, with several benchmarks reaching levels not seen for more than a decade.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.