Trade ideas: USDJPY pushing higher, is the breakout for real?

The USDJPY pair continues to push higher today - through the multi-year resistance trendline which stands in the 112.00 area on the chart. 

Although USDJPY is currently trading above 112.50 and the resistance trendline appears broken from this point of view, nothing is definite yet because this resistance is from the weekly and monthly charts and it is better to wait for this week's close at least before drawing any conclusions.

This could be a true breakout or just a test of the resistance before a reversal. This resistance trendline has been holding since 2015, so the potential breakout higher will certainly be significant.

Fundamentally, the situation is not so clear, and that could be a source of volatility and fake-outs on the chart. On the one head, rate hikes from the Fed and rising US yields are supporting the Dollar, but, on the other hand, fears of trade tensions escalating into a trade war have been supporting the Yen. The recent Yen weakness can be a way of investors saying that they are not worried about a trade war and they are going long on risk.

Clarification on the fundamental and technical situations will help to find better trading opportunities, but for now, patience seems like the better choice over picking a long-term direction in USDJPY.



USDJPY Current Trading Positions

Sell 62%
Buy 38%
Avg Sell Price 110.85
Avg Buy Price 111.01
Liquidity Distribution


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