Top trade setups in forex – US unemployment claims in focus

The U.S. stocks posted a powerful rally of over 2%, as investors were encouraged by Gilead Sciences' (GILD +5.7%) promising trial test results for its drug Remdesivir in treating coronavirus patients. The sentiment was also boosted by the Federal Reserve's pledge to support the economy.

The U.S. Department for Labor will deliver initial jobless claim figures during the week ended April 25 (3.5 million expected). The Commerce Department will report March's personal spending (-5.0% on month expected) and personal income (-1.5% on month expected). The Market News International will publish April Chicago PMI (37.7 expected).

 

XAU/USD - Ascending Triangle Continues to Play

On Thursday, the precious metal gold prices soared to trade around 1,716 level, and to record it's the best month in four years as expectations of more monetary easing from central banks and persistent concerns over a global recession boosted safe-haven demand.

The market boosted by the upbeat mood, Wall Street's main indexes were rising between 2.7% and 3.35% at the time of the press. It seems like the gold is going to end this month on the bearish track and continue to struggle to keep above $ 1,700's level as the equities are still flashing positive. On the other hand, most nations, including the U.S., showing a willingness to ease social distancing measures.

However, the markets are cheering flexibility from world leaders about the coronavirus crisis because panic and anxiety faded gradually, and many nations struggling to get the world back to work, weighing on the price of gold.

At the US-China front, U.S. President Donald Trump's fueled fresh trade war between China and the United States, which weighed on the risk sentiment but not so much. On the other hand, the Fed's dovish pause and positive updates on the virus medicine have recently improved market sentiment.

 

Daily Support and Resistance

Support	Pivot Point	Resistance
1706.9	1719.4	1734.7
1691.6		1747.2
1679.1		1762.5

 

XAU/USD - Daily Trade Sentiment

On Thursday, the precious metal gold continues to trading slightly bullish as it has already violated the sideways trading range of 1,702 - 1,712. On the 4 hour timeframe, the gold is still trading in an ascending triangle pattern, which is supporting gold above 1,708 along with resistance at 1,736. Gold is trading above 50 EMA support level of 1,707, and this has the potential to send the pair towards the next target level of 1,724 and 1,732. The recent bullish engulfing candle in gold may help us capture a quick buying trade above 1,714.

 

USD/CAD - Downward Channel Pressures Loonie

The USD/CAD pair failed to stop its previous day declining streak and hit the 3-weeks low below the 1.3900 mark, mainly due to broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The recovery rally in the oil prices strengthened the loonie demand, which keeps the currency pair lower. The USD/CAD is trading at 1.3865 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3857 - 1.3898.

At the oil front, the on-going recovery in the oil prices continued underpinning demand for the commodity-linked currency – the Loonie, which keeps the currency pair under pressure.

U.S. President Donald Trump made a promise to deliver a plan to help the country's oil companies, which also supported the sentiment around the commodity. Whereas the Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, the project could add millions of barrels of oil to already- teeming national reserves as well.

The U.S. dollar continued to trading depressive due to Wednesday's dismal US GDP report and the FOMC monetary policy report. The upbeat market mood and the latest optimism regarding the re-starting of economies in some parts keep the U.S. dollar under pressure and decreased safe-haven demand in the market.

The advance US GDP report released on Wednesday, which represented that the economy declined sharply by 4.8% during the first quarter of 2020. As well as, the Fed warned that the negative impact from the coronavirus pandemic could increase in the medium term and also showed a willingness to ease monetary policy further if needed.

 

USD/CAD- Daily Technical Levels

Support	Pivot Point	Resistance
1.3928	1.4001	1.4069
1.386		1.4142
1.3787		1.421

 

USD/CAD- Daily Trade Sentiment

The USD/CAD extends the selling trend, falling from 1.4044 level to 1.3864. On the 4 hour timeframe, 1.3862 level marks double bottom now, and closing of candles above this may drive bullish correction in the USD/CAD pair. The leading indicators, such as RSI and Stochastics are holding below 20, suggesting that bearish are exhausted, and bulls may enter the market soon in the market. During the U.S. session, we may look for buying trades over 1.3865 level to target 1.3945 until the support level of 1.3865 doesn't get violated.

 

AUD/USD – Ascending Triangle Breakout

The AUD/USD currency pair recently hit the 7-weeks high and now looking directionless and consolidates near multi-week tops, around mid-0.6500s, after the release of weaker Chinese Manufacturing PMI on Thursday. China's official Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 for April as compared to 51.0 expected and the previous month's reading of 52.0 as well as the broad- based U.S. dollar still depressed, which helps the currency pair to limit its falls. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.6527 and consolidates in the range between the 0.6500 - 0.6570.

At the data front, China's NBS or government Manufacturing PMI, which mainly shows the state- owned enterprises, came in 50.8 against expectations for 51 and down from March's 52.00. A figure above 50 indicates an expansion in the activity, while a below-50 reading represents reduction.

Therefore, the decline from 52 to 50.8, shows a slowdown in the pace of growth in China's manufacturing sector. As the data released at 1:00 GMT and failed to produce a notable impact on the Aussie dollar so far, a proxy for China, leaving the AUD/USD pair at session lows near 0.6536.

On the other hand, the stronger-than-expected gauge for the services sector gave some support to the China-proxy Australian dollar and kept the currency pair higher.

The U.S. dollar continued to trading depressive due to Wednesday's dismal US GDP report and the FOMC monetary policy report. The upbeat market mood and the latest optimism regarding the re-starting of economies in some parts further helped perceived riskier currencies, including the Aussie.

 

AUD/USD - Technical Levels

Support	Pivot Point	Resistance
0.6508	0.6533	0.6581
0.646		0.6606
0.6434		0.6654

 

AUD/USD - Daily Trade Sentiment

The AUD/USD is taking a bearish turn below 0.6560 resistance level. Closing of tweezer's bottom and bearish engulfing candle on the 4-hour timeframe can lead the AUD/USD prices lower towards 0.6496, which marks 50% retracement and around 61.8% level, which holds around 0.6485 level. Resistance continues to hold around 0.6540 and 0.6560 today. Let's look for bullish trades near 0.6465 or selling trades below 0.6525 today.

 

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