After US treasury secretary Yellen's comments about QE tapering which sparked some major downward moves in the markets, we are now awaiting three central bank decisions from the BoE, CBRT, and Norges Bank. Despite the fact that all of them are expected to leave interest rates unchanged, investors will be looking for any indication of a potential change in fiscal and economic policy as governments continue to reopen economies and as economic data shows signs of improvement. Many central banks appear to be in a wait and see mindset as they look to others as a guide while rising inflation continues to be a key topic of discussion which continues to pressure members of these central banks who have reiterated their intention to hold off until certain parameters are reached. However, as we saw just a few days ago, while they may repeat the same narrative, it is clear that certain members of these banks are taking inflation risks more seriously than others and it could be a matter of time before their influence actually impacts the policy decisions.
Could Scottish Elections destabilize the UK economy?
While a large part of the United Kingdom will be casting votes today for the biggest elections outside of a general, one key event in focus is the Scottish parliament election. Scotland has been a topic of discussion for quite some time but things escalated with the Brexit outcome which left many scottish people and politicians dissatisfied as the majority of them voted to remain. Today’s election carries extra weight since it is widely expected that if the Scottish National Party wins, or is able to form a coalition with the green party, it would lead to another scottish independence referendum. Things have changed significantly since the last referendum and many projections indicate that if the vote were to be held again it would pass, which could lead to a fragmentation of the UK as the likely follow-up would be Scotland attempting to join the EU. While there are several variables that play into this scenario, it cannot be excluded and in fact has never looked more likely.
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