These 2 analysts' Gold forecasts: One says sell every bounce, one says demand just flipped to a premium

Gold's (XAU/USD) paper and physical markets are telling two different stories right now. On the charts, FXStreet's Dhwani Mehta sees sellers firmly in control below the 21-day SMA at $4,180, with Gold slipping to $4,144. But in India, the world's second-largest Gold consumer, the physical market just flipped to a premium for the first time in three months, as Mike Maharrey of Money Metals reports dealers are charging up to $7 an ounce over spot. One camp says sell the bounce; the other shows buyers stepping in on dips.

FXStreet's Dhwani Mehta: Gold remains a 'sell-on-bounce' trade

Mehta's call is unambiguous: "Gold remains a 'sell-on-bounce' trade amid a bearish daily technical setup and geopolitical risks at play." Price is trading beneath all major daily Simple Moving Averages (SMA) - the 21-day SMA at $4,180, 100-day SMA at $4,235, 50-day SMA at $4,321 - and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.5 signals weak momentum rather than oversold exhaustion. She cites Societe Generale's caution that Gold "has not managed at all to capitalize on jitters in equities and credit," and concludes that "the upside for prices would be limited and Treasuries remain the go-to refuge." — Read the full report

Money Metals Exchange's Mike Maharrey: Demand has historically remained resilient

Maharrey's focus is the physical market, and it is tightening, not collapsing. "Gold traded at a premium in India last week for the first time in three months," he reports, with prices dipping to Rs145,538 per 10 grams, pulling buyers in as the festive season builds toward Dhanteras (November 6) and Diwali (November 8). Supply is being squeezed by design: imports plunged 45% in August after the government raised import duty from 6% to 15%, and several large Indian mutual funds have suspended bulk subscriptions to gold ETFs following "a nudge from the Securities and Exchange Board of India." His conclusion cites Metals Focus: Indian demand "has historically remained resilient in a higher-tax environment," and consumers "typically adjust to higher price levels over time" - with elevated duties risking "a recovery in unofficial flows." — Read the full report

The takeaway

The split is between the derivative market and the physical market. Mehta's technical map caps every bounce below a stacked SMA wall and points to $4,067, then $3,997-$3,990, if selling extends. Maharrey's evidence from India suggests real-world buying absorbs weakness - premiums, not discounts- in the run-up to the heaviest Gold-buying season of the year. Watch whether the 21-day SMA at $4,180 holds as resistance for the paper traders, and whether Indian premiums keep expanding for the physical camp. Whichever cracks first tells you the next move.

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)