UK jobs surprise locks in a November BoE hike as gilts miss the haven bid

EU mid-market update: France postpones today's budget revenue vote with 10-year bond premium at 150bps ahead of Moody's Friday review; UK jobs surprise locks in a November BoE hike as gilts miss the haven bid; Korea's 389-times-subscribed AI IPO loses a third on debut.

Notes/observations

- Three stories run the morning: a UK jobs report surprise, a fresh AI-credit selloff across Asia, and diesel-driven unrest spreading through southern Europe. Sterling firms to $1.335 as a November hike becomes near-certain. Kospi closes 3.7% lower at 5,552 after another data-centre IPO broke issue, and OAT-Bund holds at 147bp, the widest close since the sovereign debt crisis.

- Britain’s jobs data lock in a November hike, and gilts are the core curve missing the haven bid. Unemployment unexpectedly fell, payrolls rose against a forecast decline, and employment growth beat consensus by a wide margin. Regular pay ran marginally hot while headline pay slipped. Markets treat 5th Nov as done with three further hikes behind it, so Wednesday’s CPI sets the pace of the cycle. Underneath, vacancies are falling and claims rose, so BoE is hiking into an energy shock on a labour market that is merely holding up. That pins the gilt front end and supports sterling on carry, while the long end carries 28th Oct budget risk. Elsewhere, duration is being bought for safety. Japan’s 20-year auction drew record cover with a much smaller tail, even though Japanese banks were the heaviest medium-term sellers since 2016 last month, and BoJ October hike pricing has all but gone. AI credit is driving it: Elice broke issue by more than a quarter in Seoul, GDS slumped in Hong Kong, SoftBank credit risk hit a four-year high, and S&P flagged AI liabilities sitting outside hyperscaler balance sheets. Nscale’s Anthropic deal, worth up to $44.6B, lets Anthropic walk on missed milestones, and Microsoft quit Loughton over grid power; contracted demand is still not energised capacity. Europe wears it through electrification. ABB fell hard on record orders, and Schneider priced €6B of new shares into this tape to fund PTC. Wednesday’s US 20-year auction tests whether Tokyo’s bid travels.

- France will not hold today's scheduled revenue-budget vote, and its first reading will resume only from October 27, four days after Moody's review. More than 2,000 amendments remained outstanding after a week of debate, with the Assembly suspending the state-budget examination to begin the social-security financing bill today. The finance committee had already rejected the government's revenue proposals, and the administration's 5% deficit target for 2027 against 5.4% this year has not secured a majority; the fiscal plan envisages approximately €54bn of measures, of which €43bn are new provisions across the budget and social-security bills. Monday's OAT selloff carried the 10-year yield toward 4.90% against Bunds around 3.44%, a 146bp spread, versus roughly 138bp at the start of yesterday's session. Lecornu says targeted curfews helped restore order overnight but may be reinstated locally, while any further concessions following the protests would need to be accommodated within the fiscal legislation. The October 20 revenue ballot has been removed, the debate returns October 27, and the November 17 vote on the overall budget remains vulnerable to the unfinished first part. Moody's decision is scheduled for Friday, October 23.

- Micron's October 22 Taiwan strike puts a date on a potential memory-supply disruption just as financing and permitting problems are slowing the AI data-centre buildout. Taoyuan's union will strike Thursday, coinciding with mediation at Micron's larger Taichung operation; 1,994 of 2,258 eligible workers authorised action, but the stoppage's duration remains unspecified and Taichung has not voted to strike. Taiwan accounts for a majority of Micron's DRAM output, including HBM production and packaging, with 2027 HBM capacity already fully booked and the acquired Tongluo fab not expected to add meaningful shipments until mid-2027. The unions seek a permanent allocation of 15% of operating profit to employee bonuses rather than discretionary awards. Meanwhile CoreWeave's 2031 bonds yield around 15%, and Oracle faces an October 21 wastewater-permit hearing for its planned 1.4GW Michigan campus and October 26 motions to dismiss Project Jupiter's New Mexico air-permit proceeding, with its proposed 2.45GW fuel-cell microgrid still awaiting regulatory clearance. Microsoft has separately abandoned Nscale's Essex project over power delays beyond 2030. The same AI expansion programme is encountering higher borrowing costs, uncertain energisation dates and now a dated threat to memory production. A short Taoyuan stoppage would differ sharply from a prolonged disruption reaching Taichung; neither Micron's customer purchase commitments nor its planned additional capacity provides an immediate substitute for lost output.

- Korea's biggest KOSDAQ IPO of 2026 fell as much as 33% on its first morning despite institutional demand exceeding the offering 388.8 times. AI cloud and modular data-centre provider Elice raised KRW201.1bn ($151mn) at KRW90,500, the top of its indicated range, after 2,367 institutions participated and retail subscriptions reached 408 times the shares available, attracting KRW10.3tn in deposits. Shares opened at KRW75,700 and traded as low as KRW61,000, cutting the pre-listing KRW1.005tn valuation to approximately KRW677bn. Elice reported H1 revenue of KRW34.4bn, almost three times the previous year's first-half level, and KRW10.3bn operating profit against a KRW3.5bn loss; the IPO price nevertheless represented approximately 49 times annualised H1 operating earnings, before tax and financing costs. Only around 13.7% of institutional subscription volume was accompanied by commitments to hold shares for at least 15 days. Australia's Firmus abandoned its proposed $5bn flotation last week, AirTrunk delayed its Singapore REIT listing and CoreWeave's 2031 notes recently yielded above 16%. Elice's cash offering was completed before the selloff, with today's secondary-market opening 16% below the price those subscribers paid.

- SpaceX reports tonight against $12.9bn revenue and $0.14 EPS consensus, but Musk's August promise of $100bn in December annualised revenue implies an $8.33bn exit month, almost twice Q3's expected monthly average. Management called the target achievable without signing another contract and disclosed a further $6.7bn of compute sales over six months beginning in October; Q3 AI revenue is expected at $6.3bn against $2.56bn in Q2, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $3.2bn from $1.1bn, approaching the $2.9bn expected from Starlink. The $100bn figure annualises December revenue rather than representing non-cancellable recurring contracts. Anthropic pays $1.25bn/month for approximately 325,000 GPUs, but can exit on 90 days' notice after the initial period, with a theoretical first termination window in November; Musk said the short commitment was SpaceX's choice. Google's separate $920mn/month contract begins in October, outside Q3, and includes an October 30–31 GPU-delivery cure deadline, while Reflection reportedly pays another $150mn/month. The three disclosed rentals represent $27.8bn annualised if maintained, before July's additional contracts. More revealingly, Musk told in August that he expected only around 10% of SpaceX compute to be used for Grok training, then instructed Grok Bot in October to route tasks to Claude, Midjourney or Suno when preferable. Artificial Analysis scores Claude Opus 5.5 at 54 against Grok 4.7's 46, with Terminal-Bench at 57% versus 25%; Anthropic is already paying SpaceX to train models that outperform its proprietary offering on those measures. CFO Johnsen claimed sub-one-year payback on new compute deployments even as the AI segment recorded a $1.3bn operating loss alongside $1.1bn positive adjusted EBITDA in Q2. S&P Visible Alpha has doubled its FY28 AI revenue estimate and increased projected operating profit more than eightfold since the IPO, while forecasting group debt approaching $350bn by 2029. The earnings mix may shift toward selling scarce compute to rival model developers faster than Grok itself achieves frontier leadership, with tonight's roughly $19bn expected quarterly capex and the Anthropic renewal window setting the financial terms of that possibility.

- Anthropic is simultaneously negotiating another $45bn Nscale compute agreement, taking potential Monarch commitments toward $90bn for 920MW that will arrive much later than its existing SpaceX capacity. The proposed second 460MW building in West Virginia would match the six-year contract signed in August for the first facility, using Nvidia Vera Rubin systems, with Anthropic holding first-refusal rights over a third building at the 1.35GW campus. The first building is targeted for late 2027 and the second for early 2028; Nscale plans a 2GW on-site gas generation complex to avoid grid-connection delays, but financing and permits are not secured for the expansion. Nscale recorded only $141mn of H1 revenue against approximately $1bn of losses, and Anthropic pays for delivered compute rather than for a completed facility merely being available on paper. Microsoft withdrew from Nscale's separate 50MW Essex development after power availability slipped beyond 2030, while Anthropic may terminate the existing Monarch contract if delivery milestones are missed. Anthropic reported $16.8bn Q3 revenue, up 45% q/q after 145% growth in Q2, and is approaching a November IPO amid reports of weaker valuations than previously discussed. Its $1.25bn-a-month SpaceX arrangement already supplies compute; Nscale's first two proposed buildings would add 920MW over 2027–28 and require their own financing well before revenue begins.

- OpenAI is seeking commitments for a roughly $30 billion round before Anthropic’s expected mid-November market debut, Reuters reported overnight, citing people familiar with the talks. A valuation above $1.4 trillion is under discussion. OpenAI is pitching $50 billion in annualised revenue after recent model launches. Its last reported valuation was $852 billion in March, making both the proposed price and the compressed fundraising timetable consequential for funds asked to finance competing AI developers. Reuters also reported that OpenAI records revenue net of partner shares while Anthropic counts the gross value of certain cloud-provider contracts, a distinction that complicates headline comparisons. The next link reaches beyond either private company: a high-priced equity raise could support infrastructure commitments, but it would not itself establish the returns available to data-centre lenders and suppliers.

- Trading in AI-linked CDS has risen above $9bn a week from less than $2bn in July, while JPMorgan puts most banks' direct CoreWeave exposure far below the company's $50bn debt load. Morgan Stanley data cited by the FT show weekly protection trading across Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom and Nvidia exceeding $9bn in September, against less than $2bn two months earlier, alongside approximately $466bn of AI-related corporate debt issuance this year against $101bn in 2025. CoreWeave five-year CDS reached 1,090bp, and SoftBank protection widened to 432bp, its highest since November 2022. S&P warned Monday that the six largest hyperscalers may be supporting more AI debt through guarantees, leases and interconnected project entities than reported liabilities reveal; it estimates more than $7tn of cumulative AI spending through 2030 and negative free cash flow across the group through 2027. JPMorgan's separate analysis puts large US investment banks' and MUFG's individual CoreWeave exposures around $1–3bn, with most European and Asian banks below $500mn, principally through secured delayed-draw project loans. CoreWeave's 2031 notes eased from above 16% to approximately 15.1% during Monday's equity bounce. The unsecured bond price, secured project-loan exposure and traded CDS premium now provide three materially different readings of the same borrower's credit.

- Monday's apparent narrowing of Brent's premium over WTI was largely a futures-expiry comparison: November WTI settled at $103.66 while December WTI closed at $98.54. Brent settled at $109.55, implying a headline $5.89 Brent-WTI spread against $11.01 using the more actively traded December WTI contract; the $5.12 difference sits in the expiring November/December WTI calendar spread. November WTI expires today, with the $5-plus backwardation arriving as the US approaches a diesel shortage and the Gulf remains difficult to navigate. Energy Secretary Wright said Monday that Washington still cannot confirm Russia will deliver the 300,000 tonnes of diesel promised immediately under the sanctions-waiver arrangement, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November. Iran-related Gulf crude flows have fallen to approximately 8.5–9.4mn b/d in recent weekly tracking, while Houthi claims of further Saudi energy strikes remain unconfirmed by Riyadh. Brent recovered toward $110 on Tuesday, with the December WTI contract around $98–99 rather than the expiring November contract's $103–104. The November-December WTI spread accounts for $5.12 of the apparent convergence between US and international crude benchmarks.

- Cross-asset: A 389-times-covered IPO opened 16% below issue and fell as much as 33%, while Japan's 20-year auction attracted record demand at a yield 13bp below September's. Korea's KOSPI lost around 4%, with SK hynix approximately -5.3% and Samsung -3.8%; the Nikkei fell 1.3%, Hong Kong approximately 1.2% and Taiwan around 1%. Monday's US Nasdaq gain of 1.11% and S&P advance of 0.41% came with NYSE decliners ahead 1.8:1 and volume 10% below average; US futures subsequently eased as Europe opened with industrials -1.2% and technology -1.0%. UST tens were near 5.12%, French OAT tens around 4.90% against Bunds at 3.44%, UK tens near 5.43% and Japan's 20-year at 3.71%. DXY was near 101.77, EUR/USD around 1.1234, USD/JPY 158.15 and sterling firmer after the jobs release. Brent traded around $109–110/bbl, December WTI $98–99, gold near $4,135 and BTC around $82,000. Ahead: SpaceX and Netflix earnings tonight, US 20-year auction and Meta/Tesla/TXN/LRCX/SAP on October 21, Micron Taoyuan strike and Taichung mediation October 22, Moody's France review and flash PMIs October 23, Fed October 27–28, UK Budget October 28, ECB October 29 and BOJ October 29–30.

- Asia closed lower with KOSPI underperforming -3.7%. EU indices -0.6% to -1.0%. US futures -0.4% to +0.3%. Gold -0.5%, DXY -0.1%; Commodity: Brent +1.6%, WTI +2.0%; Crypto: BTC -1.6%, ETH -2.3%.

Asia

- China Central Bank (PBOC) Monthly LPR Setting left both 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) Rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively (as expected).

- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 67.7 v 68.0 prior.

- Japan sold 20-year JGB Bonds; Avg Yield: 3.7230% v 3.8560% prior; Bid-to-cover: 5.84x (record level) v 4.01x prior (Sept 14th 2026).

- Japan PM Takaichi reiterated stance that her government will not use deficit-financing bonds to fund a proposed sales tax cut on food.

Global conflict/tensions

- Iran has appointed missile specialist Mehrdad Akhlaghi as defense minister.

- German Chancelloe Merz warned that Europe must not underestimate the threat posed by Russia.

Europe

- France PM Lecornu asked prefectures to put in some partial curfews in place.

- UK Fin Min Healey said to rule out increasing capital gains tax in his first budget.

Americas

- President Trump continued his campaign visits and noted that Dept of Agriculture would be launching a new harvest fuel relief program, providing farmers with $8B in support to offset diesel costs this harvest season.

- VP Vance reiterated that he had not made up mind on what to do in 2028.

- Canadian province of Alberta conducted a referendum about whether to have a future independence referendum; It did eject separatism (as expected) and voted to remain in Canada.

Trade

- President Trump stated that Mexico, US were very close to a great deal.

- Trump said to 'hint at pulling back' threat related to Bombardier boycott.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE -0.46% at 10,714.74, DAX -0.82% at 25,111.38, CAC-40 -0.47% at 7,830.69, IBEX-35 -0.14% at 19,012.21, FTSE MIB -0.68% at 48,753.50, SMI -0.18% at 14,343.00, S&P 500 Futures +0.06%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equities opened lower on Tuesday, with chip-related names leading the decline as the continental complex tracked a renewed Asian semiconductor sell-off—Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix closing 3% and 4.2% weaker, the Kospi tumbling 3.7% to its lowest level since early April—amid persistent questions over the credit intensity and ultimate returns of the global AI capital-expenditure boom. The most decisive individual swings were Comet’s 9% surge after Q3 sales jumped 52% and orders 170% with raised full-year guidance, Scandi Standard’s 8% advance on an 18% rise in adjusted EBIT, and Byggmax’s 7.5% gain on stronger sales and operating profit, set against Solvay’s 8.5% drop after it cut 2026 EBITDA and free-cash-flow guidance following a Saudi peroxide-plant shutdown, Aker’s 7% decline as AI-infrastructure de-rating outweighed positive Nscale-Anthropic headlines, and ABB’s 6.5% fall when in-line results failed to clear elevated expectations. Semiconductor equipment and chipmakers—BE Semiconductor, VAT Group, ASM International, Infineon and ASML—extended losses of 2–4% as the data-centre financing overhang reasserted itself, while French banks Société Générale and BNP Paribas weakened further as domestic unrest pushed the OAT-Bund spread toward euro-crisis-era levels. With major European indexes already down more than 1% on the combination of French political risk and higher global yields, and only selective defensive support from energy and healthcare names, risk appetite remains tightly constrained by the unresolved tension between AI-driven capital intensity and the cost of capital.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: Byggmax [BMAX.SE] +7.5% (Q3 sales rose 7.1% and operating profit increased to SEK292m from SEK258m), Pernod Ricard [RI.FR] -2.0%, Diageo [DGE.UK] -1.5% (Indian authorities were reported to be investigating the tax classification of bulk Scotch-whisky imports).

Healthcare: ALK-Abelló [ALK-B.DK] +4.0% (reported positive late-stage Chinese trial results for its house-dust-mite allergy treatment), GSK [GSK.UK] +1.0% (received accelerated US approval for Jemperli in locally advanced rectal cancer), Sanofi [SAN.FR] +1.5% (defensive rotation as French political unrest and elevated oil prices kept the wider European tape risk-averse), Novartis [NOVN.CH] -1.0% (discontinued a Phase II trial of iptacopan in lupus nephritis).

Technology: Comet [COTN.CH] +9.0% (Q3 sales jumped 52% and orders 170%, with FY sales and EBITDA-margin guidance raised), BE Semiconductor Industries [BESI.NL] -4.0%, VAT Group [VACN.CH] -4.0%, ASM International [ASM.NL] -3.5%, Infineon [IFX.DE] -2.5%, ASML [ASML.NL] -2.0% (European semiconductor names tracked a renewed Asian AI-hardware selloff as financing and return concerns continued to weigh on the data-centre trade), Schneider Electric [SU.FR] -3.5% (completed a €6bn private-placement capital increase to partly finance its €20.1bn acquisition of PTC, creating dilution and financing pressure), ABB [ABBN.CH] -6.5% (Q3 results broadly matched forecasts and data-centre demand remained strong, but the in-line delivery failed to clear elevated expectations), Aker [AKER.NO] -7.0% (AI-infrastructure de-rating outweighed reports that portfolio company Nscale was discussing a new billion-dollar agreement with Anthropic).

Telecom: Tele2 [TEL2B.SE] +2.0% (Q3 equity free cash flow reached a record SEK2.3bn and the telecom group narrowed full-year guidance) ENERGY: Equinor [EQNR.NO] +1.5%, Shell [SHEL.UK] +1.0% (oil producers gained as Brent climbed back toward $110 amid renewed Middle East supply-risk concerns).

Consumer staples: Scandi Standard [SCST.SE] +8.0% (Q3 adjusted EBIT rose 18% on 8% sales growth, with ready-to-eat operating profit more than tripling), Danone [BN.FR] +1.5% (defensive rotation as French political unrest and elevated oil prices kept the wider European tape risk-averse), Ahold Delhaize [AD.NL] -2.0% (continued restoring systems following a cybersecurity incident that disrupted online operations).

Industrials/defence: Solvay [SOLB.BE] -8.5% (cut 2026 EBITDA guidance to €720m-€740m from €770m-€850m and FCF guidance to €120m-€150m from at least €200m after the Saudi peroxide-plant shutdown), Boliden [BOL.SE] -3.5% (base-metals risk aversion outweighed a Handelsbanken upgrade to Buy from Hold and PT increase to SEK629 from SEK614).

Financial: Société Générale [GLE.FR] -2.5%, BNP Paribas [BNP.FR] -2.0% (French banks extended losses as domestic unrest and fiscal uncertainty pushed the French 10-year spread over Bunds toward euro-crisis-era levels), Barclays [BARC.UK] -2.0% (the Bank of England began reviewing claims about the bank's £15bn private-credit exposure, despite Barclays defending the portfolio's quality).

Speakers

- France Parliament postponed the 2027 budget revenue vote as debate shifted to social-security financing.

- German ZEW Economists commented that the German economy was slowly emerging from stagnation but the recovery was not self-sustaining. Private consumption and investment remained weak because of high energy prices.

- Poland Central Bank's Zarzecki noted that a rate hike at Nov policy decision was not likely but still possible.

- Hungary Fin Min Karman noted that the 2027 budget to put debt on a downward path.

- Ukraine President Zelenskyy stated that he spoke with US Sec of State Rubio about Starlink and missile interceptors.

- Iran Foreign Ministry's Baghaei reiterated view that US 'excessive demands' were blocking progress on negotiations.

Currencies

- FX price action was quite limited and locked into tight ranges.

- GBP/USD did edge higher after better-than-expected unemployment data. Dealers noted that the UK govt still faced limited fiscal headroom and that a generally weak labor
market would continue to weigh on tax receipts. UK wage data hinting that energy shock had yet to fuel an inflation spiral. GBP/USD at 1.3350 by mid-sesion.

- EUR/USD little phase in its price action as the pair remained above 1.12. Dealers noted that the French fiscal concerns should remain negative for the euro. France Parliament.

- USD/JPY at 158.15postponed the 2027 budget revenue vote as debate shifted to social-security financing. More press reports circulated that BOJ was set to keep rates steady at the two-day policy meeting ending on October 30th but could raise its inflation outlook for the next fiscal year.

- The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.43%, France 10-year Oat at 4.92% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.42%; 10-year Treasury yield: 5.12%; 10-year JGB: 2.89.

Economic data

- (FI) Finland Sept Unemployment Rate: 10.4% v 9.1% prior.

- (UK) Sept Jobless Claims Change: +30.3K v +7.0K prior; Claimant Count Rate: 4.4% v 4.4% prior; Payrolled Employees Monthly Change: +13K v -8Ke.

- (UK) Aug Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 3.7% v 3.8%e; Weekly Earnings (ex-bonus) 3M/Y: 3.7% v 3.6%e; Private Earnings (ex-bonus) 3M/Y:3.0% v 3.0%e.

- (UK) Aug ILO Unemployment Rate: 4.7% v 4.9%e v; Employment Change 3M/3M: +103K v +5Ke.

- (DE) Germany Sept PPI M/M: 1.9% v 1.6%e; Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.3%e.

- (CH) Swiss Sept Trade Balance (CHF): 1.4B v 3.8B prior; Real Exports M/M: -0.1% v -9.7% prior; Real Imports M/M: +7.0% v -3.6% prior; Watch Exports Y/Y: 11.7% v 9.1% prior.

- (PL) Poland Sept Sold Industrial Output M/M:17.0 % v 15.0%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 3.1%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -9.0% v +2.2%e.

- (PL) Poland Sept Employment M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.8%e.

- (PL) Poland Sept Average Gross Wages M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 6.0%e.

- (PL) Poland Sept PPI M/M: 0.7% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 6.1% v 5.7%e.

- (ES) Spain Aug Trade Balance: -€7.8B v -€5.2B prior.

- (EU) Eurozone Aug Current Account Balance: €8.7B v €27.2B prior.

- (PT) Portugal Aug Current Account Balance: €1.4B v €0.8B prior.

- (IT) Italy Aug Current Account Balance: €2.8B v €7.6B prior.

- (GR) Greece Aug Current Account Balance: €1.7B v €0.2B prior.

- (TW) Taiwan Sept Export Orders Y/Y: 62.4% v 61.7%e.

- (DE) Germany Oct ZEW Current Situation Survey: -35.9 v -44.5e; Expectations Survey: 28.1 v 30.0e.

- (EU) Eurozone Oct ZEW Expectations Survey: 18.5 v 25.8 prior.

- (EU) Eurozone Aug Construction Output M/M: 1.8% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v -1.7% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (UK) DMO £4.25B in 4.875% July 2036 Gilts; Avg Yield: 5.418% v 5.383% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.61x v 3.34x prior; Tail: 0.2bps v 0.5bps prior.

Looking ahead

- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell 5-year BTP Valore (retail) bonds.

- (IL) Israel Oct 12-month CPI Forecast: No est v 2.0% prior.

- (MX) Mexico CitiBanamex Survey of Economists.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:25 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell combined €1.0B in 2029 and 2053 Green Bonds.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR2.55B in 2039, 2040 and 2042 bonds.

- 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO).

- 05:40 (UK) BOE allotment in 6-month GBP-enhanced liquidity repo operation (ILTR).

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept PPI M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.2% prior.

- 06:00 (FI) Finland to sell €1.0-1.5B in 2031 and 2036 RFGB bonds.

- 06:00 (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed).

- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (MNB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 5.50%.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:15 (US) ADP Preliminary Employment Change for 4-weeks ending Oct 3rd: No est v +24.8K prior.

- 08:30 (US) Oct Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: No est v -22.0 prior.

- 08:30 (US) Sept Housing Starts: 1.300Me v 1.275M prior; Building Permits: 1.385Me v 1.403M prior; Housing Starts M/M: 1.9%e v -2.6% prior; Building Permits M/M: -1.3%e v -2.1% prior.

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data.

- 09:00 HU) Hungary Central Bank (MNB) post rate decision statement.

- 10:00 (US) Sept Pending Home Sales M/M: -0.5%e v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -4.9% prior.

- 13:00 (UK) BOE’s Greene (hawkish dissenter).

- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories.

- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Sept PPI Y/Y: No est v 7.9% prior.

- 18:30 (AU) RBA’s Hauser.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Sept Trade Balance: -¥210.4Be v -¥1.111T prior (revised from -¥1.106T); Adjusted Trade Balance: -¥216.7Be v -¥840.6B prior; Exports Y/Y: 21.3%e v 19.3% prior; Imports Y/Y: 20.4%e v 28.0% prior.

- 20:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Imports 20 Days Y/Y: No est v 26.7% prior; Exports 20 Days Y/Y: No est v 78.3% prior.

- 21:10 (KR) South Korea to sell KRW800B in 3-year bonds.

- 22:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-year and 10-year bonds.

- 22:35 (CN) China to sell 3-month bills.

- 22:35 (CN) China to sell 7-year additional bonds.

- 23:00 (TH) Thailand to sell combined THB38B in 2031 and 2050 bonds.