The week ahead: Alpha or exit? – Volatility set to trade both trade noise and hard data

Week ahead

Buckle up—this week’s slate is a catalyst grid primed to either light a fire under stocks or slam on the brakes. The S&P has clawed back half its post-tariff swoon but still sits roughly 10% below February’s peak, and every session will hinge on the latest trade headlines. One whiff of de-escalation, and risk assets rip; one hint of renewed levies, and the rally vaporizes.

Roughly 40% of the index’s market cap reports earnings, led by Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta—Big Tech’s Q1 showdowns will set the tape’s tone. Early beats have bumped quarterly EPS expectations from +8% to near +10%, yet guidance cuts from staples and industrials remind us this rebound isn’t bulletproof. Add in Q1 GDP, the crucial PCE inflation read and Friday’s jobs print (135k consensus), and you’ve got a gauntlet where growth, inflation and labour all face the tariff and Doge gauntlet. Positioning is washed out, and vol is creeping lower —any fresh positive catalyst can trigger another outsized melt-up.

Friday’s NFP is the Fed’s kill switch—tariff noise and consumer jitters won’t budge Powell, but a headline spike in joblessness will. Government layoffs are already outpacing private hires, so a sub‐100k print (or worse) will blast rate‐cut expectations skyward, flatten the curve and light a rocket under risk assets. Strap in: this jobs number will hijack the tape and reignite the liquidity rally.

The 100-day meridian

We’ve just flipped past President Trump’s 100-day marker, yet markets feel more like the halfway point of a high-stakes relay than an official milestone. Musk’s Q1 call landed like a thunderbolt just as Trump quietly softened on Powell, Bessent rolled out his “Fed‐fix” playbook and Kremlin peace chatter rallied risk appetite. In trader parlance, the regime trading band has blown its seals—what follows is a cocktail of headline whipsaw and policy shifts that will define alpha this quarter.

At the heart of this shake-up is Bessent’s IIF manifesto: on-shore the factories, fortress-ify the supply chains and make our allies start paying rent for America’s security blanket. It’s the 2025 remix of the post-GFC “savings glut” thesis—excess capital once blew open asset bubbles, now it’s being rerouted through tariffs and strategic decoupling. Europe’s chronic under-spend and wage suppression won’t fix themselves, so expect U.S. leverage to turn initial reforms into a broader burden-sharing regime.

That brings us to currency, where a 5% slide in the broad USD is morphing from a risk-off headwind into a reflation tailwind. Jan Hatzius nailed it in the FT: U.S. asset supply still outstrips demand, and the dollar’s derating has miles of runway left. In practice, dollar weakness becomes the grease for cross-asset rotations—commodities, EM equities and even quality cyclicals will get a turbo-boost as Treasury yields flirt with fresh lows.

Technical positioning is just as compelling. CTAs, risk-parity buckets and vol-targeted models sold every last U.S. equity ticket heading into last week, meaning any fresh catalyst—be it policy teasers or blow-out earnings—can trigger an outsized technical squeeze. April 2nd’s “Liberation Day” tariff pause is our live stress test: watch cross-asset skews, equity-credit bases and yield-curve quirks for the next directional salvo.

Tech remains the tension point. SAP and Google served up the recurring-rev resilience bulls crave, while Tesla’s trendline crack reminded everyone that innovation isn’t hostage to tariff headlines—even as Mag-7 concentration risk cranks up beta. With P/Es reset from the high-20s to under 20x and FCF yields at multi-year peaks, this battleground will decide whether growth bulls or cyclicals hunters pocket the day’s winners.

But don’t sleep on non-U.S. pockets of alpha. Siemens Energy blasting back to all-time highs underscores that bottom-up, Europe-centric stories can thrive when valuations aren’t stretched. German domestic equities continue to outpace the Stoxx600, proving that trade-barrier beneficiaries can out-run the broader tariff turbulence.

Volatility’s pull-back is a gift for convexity seekers. 3-month implied vols slipping below 20% means hedges and dispersion trades are back in budget—prime real estate for the next wave of cross-asset divergence. In short, this is a policy-inflection, positioning-flush environment where the fastest, most nimble capital writes the P&L. Strap in: the new regime’s alpha map has been laid, and it’s all about execution.

Fundamentally, it’s a delicate balancing act between easing tensions and recession risk. Tariff de-escalation chatter is supportive, but without a full détente, it’s hard to get comfortable with U.S. growth. Macro prints are front-loaded and noisy—good until they aren’t—so until trade policy clears its path, conviction in direction will stay elusive.

Valuations sit at a stubborn ~20x S&P multiple, even as volatility ticks up and margin pressure mounts. Sure, one can argue higher profits, lower macro volatility and aggressive buybacks justify a premium. But if any of those tailwinds falter—especially the “less recession-prone” narrative—20x suddenly looks ambitious. Yet if we get a genuine tariff détente, reaffirmed U.S. tech supremacy and the enduring resilience of the consumer, maybe the market isn’t being unreasonable.

Eyes now turn to mega-cap tech earnings. Last quarter’s call-to-arms on capex didn’t falter—META, MSFT, GOOG and AMZN all stood by their growth plans. Heading into next week, we’ll be laser-focused on whether the hyperscalers double down again. If AGI hype keeps capex roaring, it’ll prove the bulls’ case that innovation still outpaces regulation.

Finally, a street observation: business planning, whether you’re running a Fortune 500 or a hedge fund, has never been more fraught. Yet amid the chaos, American structural innovation and resilience remain the ultimate backstop.

So what’s the game plan? Expect more of the same: high-volatility headline reactions within a defined trading band. This environment rewards the fastest guns—buy the dips, sell the rips—but execution is devilishly hard when every session brings a new policy curveball.

The White House is trying to back Powell into a corner

The only reliable way to crack Powell’s resolve is a headline jump in joblessness. You can debate tariffs, consumer gloom, or confidence dips all you want, but at the end of the day, the Fed’s reaction function hinges on the labour market. After all, the same central bank that raced to cut rates two months before the election—when growth was stronger, payrolls were booming and unemployment was lower—has dug in its heels ever since. Powell isn’t going to blink on mere chatter about growth slowing or trade snarls. He needs an “oh-shit” moment in the jobs data.

That moment is here. We’re already seeing government‐sector layoffs hit record highs, and they’ve more than offset gains in the private economy. Early signs of rising unemployment are flashing red, and once the headline rate shows sustained upward pressure, the Fed will have no choice but to follow through on the cuts we predicted months ago. In a typical recession you’d look for 200bp of easing; in this one, with tariffs acting as a classic negative-demand shock, you could get there even faster. Tariff-driven price spikes are transitory—real wages and hiring will sag, unemployment will spike, and that’s when Powell folds.

So here’s the playbook for Washington: unleash more of the same government furloughs, tighten the screws on the public payroll, let the jobless rate tick higher—and watch easy money roll back in. Once U.S. financial conditions start to loosen, risk assets will lean into a fresh liquidity tailwind. That’s how you engineer a policy squeeze and force the Fed off its hawkish ledge.