The PPT to the rescue of the Dollar

Good Day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to one and all... You're going to have to pick the ball up and run with this Tub Thumpin' today, as last night I got violently sick and then slept about 15 hours... I'm up at 4:30 am this morning, and right now I think I feel OK, but one never knows! Chemo will do that to you, just out of nowhere, hit you like a ton a bricks... So, I'm going to lay low today, and make sure everything has settled down... Nina Simone greets me this morning with her classic song: Feeling Good... I sure hope I can say that later today! 

The dollar bugs were running for the wall boards yesterday morning, and then suddenly they came back out! It was yesterday, that I talked about how we had seen several times in the past 5 years, where the dollar looked to be heading for the cliff, only to be pulled back by the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) , and then yesterday we saw it once again... Just put another notch in the belt for the PPT... The BBDXY ended up gaining 2 index points yesterday, after being down over 4 index points early yesterday... The euro had traded over 1.09 during the dollar selloff, but quickly went back below the figure once the dollar rebounded, suspiciously... that is... 

And the short paper traders saw the intervention in the dollar and decided to mimic their moves, with Gold... Gold was up about $10 when the rug was pulled out from underneath it... Gold ended the day down $15, at $2.014.40.

The short paper traders tried the same tricks with Silver, but... Silver had built such a strong session that the short paper traders were only able to bring Silver back 28-cents, while Silver ended the day up 23-cents, at $22.74.

Copper was also on the list of metals that needed to be interfered with yesterday. After climbing to 3.88 (from 3.81) on the day, Copper saw some short paper trading, and ended the day at 3.80... UGH! Why can't these guys just let markets decide the true level of assets? 

The price of Oil is seeing more buying on the Red Sea goings on... Yesterday, the terrorists shot more missiles at a U.S. cargo ship, and this news came after the U.S. had taken some of the terrorist's missile spots out... This brings me to say that the current warfare of coming out of a hole, throwing some bombs, and then returning back to the hole, is not something the U.S. military has figured out... At least that's how it seems, to the untrained eye... Anyway, the price of Oil gained nearly $2 yesterday, and trades this morning with a $75 handle. 

And bonds continue to get sold... The yield on the 10-year Treasury gained 5 basis points yesterday, and trades this morning with a 4.16% yield... This is all about how the bond boys have finally acquiesced, and said "ok, I see where the Fed Heads keep telling us that there won't be a rate cut early this year, as we once thought"... So, now all the buying that brought the 10-year's yield down from 5% to 3.89%, is seeing a correction.

In the overnight markets last night... The dollar buying stopped, hmmm... what? there isn't a PPT in the overnight markets? I reckon not! But the damage yesterday to the currencies was felt all through the asset class... When I did the prices for the currency roundup this morning, it appeared that none of them saw gains yesterday, and last night was more of the same... Gold is flat this morning, and Silver is down 20-cents... I have to say that this 20-cents selloff this morning seems to be the left over from yesterday's take down of Silver.

The price of Oil continues to move higher in the $75 handle this morning... Could $80 be in the cards here? It sure appears that there will be no calming down of the Red Sea shenanigans, so we could very well see $80 here... You the greatest gains in inflation came from the drop of the price of gas... Well, those gains could be wiped out if Oil continues higher.

Longtime reader, Bob, sent me a note last night, that was an article about how China has moved to the # 1 pole position for leader of Manufacturing in the World... The article pointed out that China is the sole Superpower of Manufacturing int the world, and the U.S. is the sole Superpower of military...  I wonder how that's going to play out as we go through the years? One very interesting chart in the article was a chart showing the % of the World's share of Gross Production... The top ten countries in Manufacturing, minus China's chart line is showing a linear move downward, while China's chart line is a linear move upward...  Very Interesting.

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, finally has some real economic data for us to see... batting leadoff will be the very first look at 4th QTR GDP... Then batting second will be the usual Thursday fare, of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims... And then your best hitter hits 3rd, and today that's Durable Goods for December... I suspect that this data print will be very disappointing, as I feel the same for the GDP print.

To recap... the dollar was sliding quickly yesterday morning, and then suddenly it recovered! A miraculous recovery! Well, with the help of the PPT, the dollar turned around on the day, and overnight there was no movement in the dollar... The metals saw the same kind of intervention, but here the short paper trades sold... Gold lost $15 on the day, and Chuck just wants to know why the markets can't decided an asset's true value, without interference! 

For What It's Worth... I talked a bit earlier this week about 2024 forecasts... And then I saw this article on Bloomberg.com and thought that it would be a good FWIW article, and so here it is : Stock Market 2024 Predictions: Wall Street Expects Rate Cuts, Mild Recessions.

Here's your snippet: "When it came to 2023 predictions, Wall Street’s best and brightest famously got it wrong on markets and a US recession that never came. Can they do any better in 2024?

Bloomberg News combed through more than 50 investment outlooks from major banks, money managers and advisers to collate hundreds of the biggest calls for this year. The takeaway? There’s a broad consensus that – this time – higher interest rates will indeed bite, with economies slowing and central banks eventually turning to rate cuts. 

The good news for investors is that such a deceleration (should it occur) would be mild. Barclays contends it would be a “soft-ish” landing while BNY Mellon Wealth Management says it would be “a healthy and welcome slowdown.” Moreover, lower borrowing costs would help ease a return to growth in the second half – or so the theory goes.

Given the landscape though, bears still comfortably outnumber bulls. The next 12 months will not only determine whether the Federal Reserve achieved its soft landing, but also the fate of the current business cycle and the political leadership of half of the global economy. 

As a result, and despite what happened with last year’s predictions, many on Wall Street are pessimistic. According to Robeco, expectations for a soft landing are a “fairy tale.” Still, some see more blue sky on the way, with UBS Asset Management expecting global stocks to “comfortably ascend to new all-time highs.” Here’s almost everything Wall Street expects in 2024."

Chuck again... forecasts are about as reliable as weather forecasts... So, take it with however many grains of salt that you wish.... But remember this, as long as there are questions out there about things... Got Gold?

Market Prices 1/25/2024: American Style: A$ .6580, kiwi .6120, C$ .7398, euro 1.0895, sterling 1.2729, Swiss $1.1579, European Style: rand 18.9187, krone 10.4289, SEK 10.4138, forint 354.11, zloty 4.0161, koruna 22.7756, RUB 88.83, yen 147.67, sing 1.3399, HKD 7.8172, INR 83.10, China 7.1707, peso 17.26, BRL 4.9321, BBDXY 1,236.09, Dollar Index 103.18, Oil $75.98, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $22.85, Platinum $908.00, Palladium $980.00, Copper $3.80, and Gold.... $2,214.20.

That's it for today, and this week... It's been a long week for me, as I've been battling the tumor in my jaw, and the bleeding again... UGH! I've been sleeping a lot during the day too... That's gotta stop before Spring Training games start! Hey! only 20 more days until pitchers and catchers report! I haven't been over the stadium yet this year, as I usually go over and pick up my tickets, but, these days, they are all digital... UGH! Tomorrow will be my youngest sister, Joanie's birthday... Happy Birthday, Joanie! Joanie lives in Houston with my other sister Terri... I hope your day is grand! Our Blues won another road game late last night in Vancouver! Go Blues! It was an Overtime winner, and was quite sweet! Congrats to: Andrian Beltre, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer on being elected to Baseball's Hall of Fame... Don't get me started on how I feel that the Hall of Fame is getting watered down... I don't want to go there, I'll get too upset... The Allan Parsons Project take us to the finish line today with their song: Eye In the Sky... I hop you have a Tub Thumpin' Thursday today... and Please Be Good To Yourself!