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The missile and drones are still flying

  • The dollar bugs get some sense drilled in their heads!
  • Gold/Silver have good days to end the week.

Good Day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! One of my fave singers, David Clayton Thomas of Blood Sweat & Teats passed away last Thursday... So, sad, to think about how many of my younger faves are now reaching old age and dying... UGH! Al Wilson greets me this morning with his song: Show And Tell... 

The dollar was sold going into the weekend, and the BBDXY finished the week at 1,223... It wasn't down by a lot, but down nonetheless... A negative Durable Goods Orders (-4.50%) got the dollar bugs worried, and that led to some selling... The euro tried the dickens to get back to the 1.14 figure, but petered out at the end, and finished the week at 1.1384... 

Gold finished the week on a good note... Yes, I did say good note. I had to make sure you read that right, given all the previous days when I had to report Gold down... Gold finished the week $4,088 and Silver came in at $59.05... The two metals tried to finish higher on the day, but the SPTs were there to make certain that they didn't... So, who knows where the two may have ended the week?

The price of Oil finished the week with a $69 handle... There were more reports from the Strait of Hormuz pointing the finger of blame on the other side for breaking the Peace Agreement... You started it, no, you started it, kind of stuff, like children in a playground... At this point, what does it matter? The Peace Agreement was broken, and it won't be the last time either... So, in my mind, until the Strait is open and ships can travel back and forth through it, the war is still going on... I'm just saying...

And the 10-year Treasury finished the week with a 4.37% yield... 

In the overnight markets last night... Well, the weak selling in the dollar continued throughout the night, so we start this day/week with the BBDXY at 1,222...

But what the SPTs missed on Friday, they made up for overnight, and Gold is down $47 to start our day/week, and Silver is down 77-cents... So much for a recovery for the two... Copper is $6.18 and far from its recent levels... And Platinum and Palladium are way down from where they were. So, it's not just Gold/Silver that the SPTs have been putting through their wash, rinse, repeat cycle... 

The euro was able to climb back to the 1.14 handle overnight, so it's been awoken! 

The price of Oil remained with a $69 handle overnight, and the 10-year remained trading with a 4.37% yield... Not much happened overnight for these two... Speaking of Oil, I stopped to get gas yesterday and paid $4.20 per gallon, and that's down from the $5 I paid about 3 weeks ago... So, everyone can begin to calm down about the price of Gas... 

That is, as long as the missiles and drones remain in their bunkers over in Iran... 

I read on Zerohedge.com over the week that there's a ton of speculation out there regarding a surprise rate cut before the mid-term elections... Now, they didn't have to spell out the reason for this potential rate cut, did they? We all know what it's expected to do, now don't we?

I also read on that the U of Michigan's consumer confidence which had hit decades lows in its first run, but in the second run the Consumer Confidence rebounded a bit, but still remained below the level it was at before the Iran War, and way below where it was a year ago... 

I normally don't get too involved with the Consumer Confidence reports because they really are centered on the performance of the Stock Market... And because.... They've never contacted me and asked me for my opinion.... But this one had fallen so low, that I mentioned it for one of the reasons the dollar was getting sold at the time. So, a follow-up was warranted... 

You know... That Big Al Greenspan died last week... He was the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel's Chairman for a long time 1987 to 2006... He was around for Black Monday in stocks October 1987, and he was around for the dot.com bust, and he was just out the door for the Financial Depression that began In 2007.. 

I've never thought much of Big Al Greenspan, especially since his lowering interest rates during the dot.com bust was a good move, but then kept them really low, which they were when he left... The low rates generated the mortgage meltdown... But he wasn't around to take the blame... I'm just saying...

OK, enough on Big Al... How about that USMNT? I didn't like that they lost an inconsequential game but still won their division... They will play on Wednesday in the knockout round... If you lose here, you go home... So come on U.S.!

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week had the aforementioned Durable Goods for May that were a negative -4.5%... That's HUGE folks! And the Fed's PCE came in for May at +3.4% annualized... If the Fed Heads needed assurance that inflation was high, they just got it! The Data Cupboard is empty today, and really doesn't have anything for us until Wed... The Jobs Jamboree will be held on Thursday this week, since the 4th of July is Saturday, the propeller heads don't want to have to work on Friday! 

To recap... The dollar saw a bit of selling after a rotten Durable Goods Orders for May printed and finished the week with the BBDXY at 1,223. Gold & Silver were bought, and the buying was more than the STPs wanted to make a point of, so the acquiesced but made sure Gold/Silver didn't get too carried away.... Maybe the low has been put in... only The Shadow Knows!

For What It's Worth... I came across this last week, and wanted to include it for sure today...

Here's your snippet: "One clear pattern stands out in the rankings: Asia dominates.

Seven of the world’s 10 largest reserve holders are located in the region, together accounting for roughly two-thirds of global foreign exchange reserves. This concentration reflects decades of export-led growth, persistent trade surpluses, and a policy focus on maintaining large financial buffers.

Why the U.S. Ranks So Low

One of the most surprising aspects of the rankings is the relatively low position of the United States. Although it remains the world’s largest economy, the U.S. holds far fewer foreign exchange reserves than many Asian economies and ranks only 13th globally.

The explanation lies in the unique role of the U.S. dollar. Because the dollar serves as the world’s primary reserve currency and dominates global trade, the United States generally does not need to accumulate large quantities of foreign currencies.

Countries around the world demand dollars for trade,

investment, and central bank reserves, allowing the U.S. to settle obligations in its own currency.

As a result, U.S. policymakers allow the dollar to float freely rather than actively managing its exchange rate through large-scale reserve interventions. This contrasts with many export-oriented economies that maintain substantial reserve stockpiles to support financial stability and manage currency fluctuations.

Why Countries Build Massive Currency Reserves

Foreign exchange reserves act as a country’s emergency fund. Central banks can use them to stabilize currencies during market turmoil, pay for essential imports, service foreign debt, or reassure investors during periods of capital flight.

The larger the reserve buffer, the greater a country’s ability to respond to external economic shocks without relying on foreign assistance.

The importance of reserve accumulation became especially clear after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Many Asian economies experienced severe currency collapses and were forced to seek external assistance. In the years that followed, governments across the region adopted a strategy of building substantial reserve buffers as a form of economic self-insurance.

What Large Reserves Mean for the Global Economy

Large reserve holdings can provide important benefits. Countries with substantial reserves are often better positioned to weather external shocks and maintain investor confidence during periods of market stress.

However, reserves also come with costs. Funds invested in reserve assets are typically held in low-yield government securities rather than being deployed elsewhere in the economy. Policymakers must therefore balance the security provided by reserves against the opportunity cost of holding them.

The rankings illustrate how global financial influence extends beyond the size of an economy alone. While the U.S. remains central to the international monetary system because of the dollar’s dominant role, Asia’s massive reserve holdings underscore the region’s importance in global trade, manufacturing, and cross-border capital flows."

Chuck Again... I know, it's a long one today... I couldn't figure out what part I wanted to cut from the Snippet, so I just included it all... 

Market Prices 6/29/2026: American Style: A$ .6899, kiwi .5653, C$ .7038. Euro 1.1400, sterling 1.3228, Swiss $1.2328, European Style: rand 16.4158, krone 9.9356, SEK 9.7274, forint 310.79, zloty 3.7611, koruna 21.2769, RUB 77.66, yen 161.85, sing 1.2935, HKD 7.8421, INR 94.54, China 6.7947, peso 17.47, BRL 5.1720, BBDXY 1,222, Dollar Index 101.26, Oil $69.80, 10-year 4.37%, Silver $58.28, Platinum $1,600.00, Palladium $1,240.00, Copper $6.18, and Gold... $4,041.

That's it for today... No Pfennig tomorrow, it's time to see the oncologist... Yesterday was my youngest son's birthday... Alex who turned 30... yes, he's the same Alex that used to sit on my lap and help me write the Pfennig... Yes, he's that old! Yesterday was the anniversary of my darling daughter, Dawn and her hubby Jerry... So, congrats to them, and Big Happy Birthday yell to Alex! Alex's wife, Grace is ready to have their first baby, I thought it would come on his birthday, but I guess not... Herb Albert and his Tiajuana Brass take us to the finish line today with their song: This Guy's In Love... I take some flak for having that song on my iPod, but hey! I've always loved this song! I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Author

Chuck Butler

Chuck Butler

The Aden Forecast

Chuck has a long history of being associated the investment markets. He started in a regional brokerage firm in 1973, and it was just like the act of Nixon taking the U.S.

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