The Iran news slowed the markets down

SD: Mar '26 is Up at 99.200.  

Energies: Apr '26 Crude is Up at 77.13.

Financials: The Mar '26 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 20 ticks and trading at 116.26.

Indices: The Mar '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 436 ticks Lower and trading at 6780.00.

Gold: The Apr'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 5180.20.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Higher which is correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Lower with the exception of the Singapore exchange. Currently all of Europe is trading Lower.

Possible Challenges to Traders                                                  

• FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 9:55 AM EST.   This is Major.
• RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism tentative.  This is Major.
• Wards Total Vehicle Sales - All Day by Brand.   This is Major.
• FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 11:45 AM EST.  This is Major. 

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 8:15 AM EST with no real news pending.   The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 8:15 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Jun '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Down bias and the markets didn't disappoint. The Dow dived Lower by 346 points and the other indices closed Lower as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is to the Downside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday morning the global markets were in a down trend as the Iran news slowed the markets down. This is not unusual as when a geopolitical event occurs it can and often does slow down markets Yesterday was no exception.