In recent days, the seven-day moving average of new COVID cases has dropped to about 90K for the first time since July, after exceeding 170K at its September 13 peak around the timing of our previous forecast update.
As one problem fades, another has gotten worse. Supply chain issues have been with us to varying degrees since the pandemic first broke out in March 2020, but in recent weeks, supply chains have shifted from merely a major headache to an outright crisis.
COVID case spikes overseas and the resulting absenteeism at far-flung ports and factories have had a lagged effect on the production pipeline all over the world.
The result is the “everything shortage,” which is offering a fast education on the far-reaching impacts of global trade to everyone from big business owners to ordinary consumers.
The logjam will push back the timing of some growth we had anticipated later this year and early next year, which will weigh on our forecast for 2022, although most of that growth shows up later in the forecast.
We now forecast that real GDP will grow 4.0% in 2022, down from 4.5% last month. Our outlook for 2023 looks for output to grow at an above-trend rate of 3.2% that year, up from 3.0% previously.
The shortages and longer wait times are having an effect on consumer prices. Headline inflation, as measured by the PCE deflator, rose to 4.3% on a year-over-year basis (see chart), with core PCE deflator coming in at 3.6%. These measures reflect the highest headline and core inflation in more than 30 years.
We expect the FOMC to announce a tapering in its asset purchases later this year, which should contribute to the upward creep in long-term interest rates that we will forecast in coming quarters.
Rate hikes are not on the docket, however, as the FOMC will likely wait until the labor market is nearing "maximum" employment until it begins to hike rates, a condition that we do not believe will be met until the second half of 2023. We forecast that the committee will raise its target range for the fed funds rate 75 bps in the last two quarters of 2023.
Supply chain reaction
While it may be true that hope springs eternal, if the past 20 months have taught us anything, it is that hopes can be dashed in unending ways as well. A surge in the Delta variant was the primary culprit in our downward revision to our growth forecast in September. This month, we are paring back expectations again, but this time it is the worsening backdrop for supply chains that is to blame. There is an upshot though: while some of the activity suppressed by shortages is lost forever, a lot of it is merely delayed. Our full-year growth forecast for 2022 at 4.0% is now half a percentage point lower than it was a month ago, but we see scope for a pickup in activity as supply chains normalize, perhaps as soon as the second half of next year. In the meantime, the shortages mean even higher prices, which has implications for Fed policy.
Although the virus case counts are again moving lower, Americans have generally remained more cautious, perhaps even growing leery of apparent improvements after so many false-dawns throughout this pandemic. The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment rose to 72.8 in September, but that comes after having dipped to its lowest level since 2011 in August, while the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence fell in September to its lowest level since last winter.
Despite these setbacks in sentiment, retail sales shot up 0.7% in August. Control group sales posted a 2.5% gain, the biggest since stimulus checks went out in March this year. We see some gains reflecting catch-up in stores where inventory was previously picked clean and others tied perhaps to the Child Tax Credits and back-to-school spending. A key factor to keep in mind is that prices are playing a role here, and after adjusting for inflation, the spending gains are more modest. The retail sales figures are not adjusted for price changes, but the figures in the personal income and spending report are. After adjusting for inflation, the 0.8% nominal increase in personal spending was cut in half to a 0.4% real increase. That was not enough to offset the 0.5% decline in real PCE revealed in the revision to July. It is for this reason that we anticipate real consumer spending growth will come in at just a scant 0.7% increase in the third quarter.
While we remain concerned about COVID’s impact on consumer spending, most individuals seem to be going about their daily routines, albeit perhaps not with the same vigor as they did earlier in the summer when the pandemic appeared to be winding down. In short, significant retrenchment in consumer spending does not appear likely unless the new case count shoots markedly higher from its current level. We forecast that real GDP in the United States will grow 5.6% in 2021 (see chart). That still marks the strongest full year for U.S. economic growth since 1984, but it is a meaningful downgrade from the 7.3% rate that we forecasted in early June when new COVID cases were averaging roughly 15K per day and before prospects for a more vibrant rebound were ruined by the Delta variant.
Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks. If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets. Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement. Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account. Fast Markets A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system. In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors. Potential Risks in a Fast Market "Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. Large Orders in Fast Markets Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5. In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees. This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted. Online Trading and Duplicate Orders Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed. Limit Orders Can Limit Risk A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected. Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.