The Fed stands pat

USD: Sep '26 is Up at 100.495.  

Energies: Jun '26 Crude is Down at 74.94.

Financials: The Sep '26 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 16 ticks and trading at 113.17.

Indices: The Jun '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 248 ticks Higher and trading at 7556.00.

Gold: The Aug'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4351.10.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Down which is normal, and the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. Asia traded Mixed, all of Europe is trading Higher.  

Possible challenges to traders                                                  

• Unemployment Claims are out at 8:30 AM EST.  Major.
• Philly Fed Mfg. Index is out at 8:30 AM EST.  Major.   
• CB Leading Index m/m is out at 10 AM EST.   Major.
• Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST.  Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 2 PM EST to coincide with the Fed announcement.   The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 2 PM EST and the Dow climbed Higher around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Sep '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral bias and the markets didn't disappoint. The Dow closed Higher by 329 points however the other indices traded Lower.  All in all, it was a Neutral or Mixed day. Our bias will remain Neutral or Mixed.  

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Well, the new Fed chief had his first FOMC meeting and he decided to keep interest rates the same with no change. This was the safe move for them for them to take and they did.