The Fed requires a perfect straight line from today to year end to achieve the 2% target
Government Budget years for the United States occur with Congressional passage in October. Explains why end of year changes to interest rates is most popular. End of year changes to government budgets also coincides to EU budgets in November / December, Audtralia, New Zealand and Canada June / July and February / March for the UK. Japan budget years occur in April.
End of year interest changes allow nations to align budgets to new rates. Note the few changes during the middle months from May to July. March, December and November become most popular months for Fed interest rate changes.
The skew for middle months is the result of factors as Inflation, market crashes, terrorist attacks.
With Inflation at 3.4% and many miles to the 2% target, the Fed requires a perfect straight line from today to year end to achieve the 2% target. This places year end again as most popular months for interest adjustments.
The problem with the 2% target is once achieved, Inflation becomes severely oversold and heads higher again.
Fed interest rate changes: 2023 - 1991
January 6 changes.
February 6 adjustments.
March 12 changes.
April 5 changes.
May 7 changes.
June 9 changes.
July 5 changes.
August 7 changes.
September 9 changes.
October 8 changes.
November 10 changes.
December 14 changes.
Author
Brian Twomey
Brian's Investment
Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.
