The Fed and the ECB might decide on the next EUR/USD move

KBC Market Research Desk KBC Bank

Currencies

EUR/USD

EUR/USD fell below the 1.17-support as euro weakness took over from dollar strength. After testing the next support near 1.1550, the pair rebounded as tensions on Italy eased. The Fed and the ECB might decide on the next EUR/USD move.

EUR/GBP

The test of the EUR/GBP 0.87 area was again rejected as Italian tensions eased. Furthermore, Brexit progress remains scant. PM May's long-awaited "backstop" plan left the EU unimpressed and UK eco data remain mixed, at best.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY corrected lower with Italy causing a flight to the safe yen haven. The pair rebounded again from 108-area. Risk sentiment generally improved, but remains prone to volatility.

EUR/CZK

Since the May policy meeting, the CZK lost further ground. However, the trend probably reversed at the start of the month on the back of strong wage growth, fuelling market expectations - which were later strengthened by the CNB governor - of an additional rate hike.

EUR/PLN

The Polish zloty stabilized lately after considerable losses this month and the previous. Within the CE region, the zloty is most vulnerable to rising US yields/a firmer dollar. The NBP has no intention at all to normalize policy any time soon as it made clear in its last June-meeting.

EUR/HUF

EUR/HUF trended further north, finally leaving the 305-315 trading range. Hungarian monetary policy is expected to remain loose for the foreseeable future whereas the ECB in June probably prepares the next step to normalization.

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KBC Market Research Desk

KBC Bank

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