|

The EUR/USD pair opens near the 3-week low

EURUSD

The Euro closed lower on Tuesday, closing at 1.1222(-36 pips) against the greenback. The dollar's strength bolstered during mid-European session, later confirmed by data releases from both economies. The initial catalyst came from China's Central Bank, as PBoC officials see now less room to cut reserve requirement ratio(RRR) amid improving data in Q1. The only non-issue here is that China has cut RRR by 350 bps since April 2018 but it hasn't really translated into much improvement in economic conditions. Also, US stock indexes added to dollar's bullish bias, nearing all-time highs on the back of upbeat earnings reports from big names such as Twitter and Coca-Cola. In the data front, US New Home Sales surprised to the upside by rising 4.5% in March, while Consumer Confidence in the Union plunged in April according to preliminary estimates, printing -7.9. The shared currency was also hurt by comments from EU Centeno, who said that Italy's weak economic growth is worrisome for the area's finance ministers. Overall, data convinced market players on the health imbalances between both economies, also highlighting divergent paths from central banks, as the ECB is back to adding stimulus while the Fed is just in pause, with nothing suggesting a rate cut needed in the US. For these two economies, the only relevant piece of data will be the German IFO survey for April, with the Business Climate seen improving to 99.9 from 99.6 in March. There's nothing relevant scheduled in the US for today.

EURUSD 4 Hour Chart

EURUSD

The EUR/USD pair opens near the 3-week low, just a handful of pips above the 1.1200 figure, and bearish according to technical readings, as, in the 4 hours chart, the pair is well below all of its moving averages, and with the 20 SMA(Blue Line) accelerating below the larger ones, while technical indicators maintain downward slopes within negative levels. The pair bottomed this month at 1.1183, but a more relevant support is the mentioned yearly lo at 1.1175, with a break below the level opening doors for an approach to the 1.1100 figure.

GBPUSD

The Pound closed lower on Tuesday, closing at 1.2934(-46 pips) against the greenback. The cable pair fell to 1.2927, its lowest in over two months, as broad dollar's strength combined with no progress in the Brexit front. Bearish sentiment came with PM May's spokesman statement, as it repeated that the government is focused on passing the withdrawal agreement deal. Furthermore, cross-party talks resumed this Tuesday after the Easter recess, with the government´s representative reiterating that 'both sides need to compromise.' Underlying issues remain the same around Brexit, and the EU's decision of granting additional time to the UK is just extending the agony. The UK's macroeconomic calendar had nothing to offer Tuesday and will only publish March Public Sector Net Borrowing this Wednesday, hardly a market mover.

GBPUSD 4 Hour Chart

GBPUSD

The pair broke below the psychological 1.3000 level, the pair is at risk of extending its decline, initially targeting the 1.2880 price zone. Furthermore, the Pound collapsed after yet another failed attempt to rally beyond 1.3000, which should further put buyers on hold. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, additional declines are to be expected as the pair quickly retreated after trying to advance beyond a bearish 20 SMA(Red Line), while the 200 EMA(Blue Line) continues gaining downward strength well above the shortest one. The Momentum indicator stands directionless below its mid-line, while the RSI is partially losing downward strength in oversold territory, without signs of downward exhaustion.

Major Economic Events happening this week (AEST Time Zone)

Economic event (Date)

Previous

Forecasted

Actual

EA- Consumer Confidence Flash April (24 April)

-7.2

-7.0

-7.9

DE- IFO Business Climate for April (24 April)

99.6

99.9

TBA

US- Durable Goods Orders MoM for March (25 April)

-1.6%

0.8%

TBA

GB- Finance Mortgage Approvals for March (26 April)

39.083K

38.7K

TBA

US- GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1(26 April)

2.2%

2.1%

TBA

US- Michigan Current Conditions Final for Aprl (27 April)

113.3

114.2

TBA

Author

Capital Group Team

Capital Group Team

Capital Group

More from Capital Group Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD weakens to near 1.1900 as traders eye US data

The EUR/USD pair loses ground to around 1.1905, snapping the two-day winning streak during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Markets might turn cautious ahead of the release of key US economic data, including US employment and inflation reports that were pushed back slightly due to the recently ended four-day government shutdown.

GBP/USD edges lower below 1.3700 on UK political risks, BoE rate cut bets

The GBP/USD pair trades on a weaker note around 1.3685 during the European session on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling edges lower against the US Dollar amid political risk in the United Kingdom and rising expectations of near-term Bank of England rate cuts. 

Gold drifts lower as positive risk tone tempers safe-haven demand; downside seems limited

Gold drifts lower during the Asian session on Tuesday and snaps a two-day winning streak, though it lacks strong follow-through selling and shows some resilience below the $5,000 psychological mark amid mixed cues. The outcome of Japan's snap election on Sunday removes political uncertainty, which, along with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, remains supportive of the upbeat market mood.

Bitcoin Cash trades lower, risks dead-cat bounce amid bearish signals

Bitcoin Cash trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.

Follow the money, what USD/JPY in Tokyo is really telling you

Over the past two Tokyo sessions, this has not been a rate story. Not even close. Interest rate differentials have been spectators, not drivers. What has moved USD/JPY in local hours has been flow and flow alone.

Bitcoin Cash trades lower, risks dead-cat bounce amid bearish signals

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.