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The dovish Fed playbook [Video]

Markets are betting big on Fed rate cuts — with September odds split between a 25bp trim and whispers of a jumbo 50bp move. Softer CPI data fuelled dovish bets, but today’s PPI report could throw cold water on the frenzy if tariff-led costs push prices higher. Bond yields are testing recent lows, the dollar is down for a third straight session, and Bitcoin’s at fresh records. US stocks hit new highs, with small- and mid-caps rallying on lower-rate hopes, while Nvidia slipped after CoreWeave’s bigger-than-expected loss. Abroad, the Nikkei fell on BoJ hike talk, but Japanese tech still looks appealing. Chinese equities shine with Tencent and Alibaba’s AI-driven growth powering the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China index nearly 30% higher since April. Is the market underestimating inflation risks — and could an outsized cut backfire?

Author

Ipek Ozkardeskaya

Ipek Ozkardeskaya

Swissquote Bank Ltd

Ipek Ozkardeskaya began her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked in HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high-net-worth clients.

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