The dollar was so overbought

Good Day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Yesterday's visit to the doctor for my annual health visit didn't go to well, for one he was upset with me that I never called in to get my one medicine that would help with my one kidney... and then he was upset with me for gaining weight I had already lost... I told me I was on steroids for a month and then he settled down... The band Blue Swede greets me this morning with their 80's song: Hooked on a Feeling

Well, the dollar got sold yesterday but, in the end, it remained trading with a 1,222 figure in the BBDX... The dollar was so overbought that it will take some dropping of the BBDXY to show that, before we begin to see some dollar weakness... My head is healing but it's taking so long... and I don't have patience... My old, old boss at Stifel, Don Jackson, bought me a book one time titled something about a lack of patience...

Gold / Silver are getting prepared for their fall through winter rally... The two rallied into the weekend and are positioned to be ready to rally... If you're wondering what I'm talking about then you haven't been paying attention in class... A month or so ago I featured a write up by Frank Trotter regarding how Gold seems to rally 80% of the time in the fall and winter.. And Gold drags Silver along for a while, until Silver takes the lead... (In percentage)

Silver will be a tough row to hoe, because of all of the short positions that exist in Silver... it's a pity that the Gov't has allowed this many short positions... It's a downright, pity...

The price of Oil saw some slippage yesterday and went back below $100, but remained trading with a $98 handle... And the 10-year Treasury is seeing lots of buyers right now and the yield fell to 5.11%.. It seems that investors are selling their stocks and buying the 10-year or they feel that the yield on the bond will not go any higher...

In the overnight markets last night... The dollar continued to get sold and trades with morning down 1 index point at 1,220... this won't be a race to bottom of the BBDXY, it will be a marathon... Slow and Steady... The turtle found that it helped in win the race... According to AAESOP...

Gold is up $5 to start our day, while Silver is dragging the line this morning down 51-cents... UGH! See what I mean regarding Silver? The rallies will come, but they will spread out...

The price of Oil has slipped further and trades this morning with a $97 handle... And the 10-year Treasury's yield saw more slippage and starts today at 5.09%...

There isn't much out there right now folks... and besides the currency roundup there wasn't much to talk about yesterday, so I don't really feel guilty about not writing yesterday... that brings us to today...

Well, the housing industry is receiving some bad news... I told you a month or so ago, that Housing was in trouble... And that's good news for younger potential buyers that seem to get their arms around the price that people are selling their home for... It's ridiculous! But it is what it is... But those levels just might be in for a correction, as the Home Builders confidence showed yesterday... American homebuilder confidence crashed to 29 in October - down from 32 in September and worse than the 31 print expected as rising mortgage rates, energy and material costs, and worsening labor and lot conditions have pushed builder sentiment to a 14-year low.

I see it coming folks, and the next move by the FOMC will really show housing the path they need to take... One that's filled with price declines...

I told you this because it's related to the dollar... Everything is related to the dollar it seems...

The currencies are looking at each other and wondering who will be the first to get out of their respective sick beds... The euro is the leading candidate for it is the offset currency to the dollar... But during the last weak dollar trend, the A$ and kiwi were the two leaders that took over from the euro's original run...

And right when the Petrol currencies were getting out of their respective sick beds, the price of Oil slides back down to below $100.. But they remain at better levels today than they were last week, and that's a good thing... The Norwegian krone is leading the Petrol Currencies to the promised land, with the Russian ruble right behind them...

Many years ago, wrote a piece for a major news magazine on Norway and Sweden... All the things I said in that article are still true today, so if you have time dig it out, and see it there before your eyes!

There is nothing for us to review in the U.S. Data Cupboard today... No Events is what I get when I go to the economic calendar... And that's a good thing for the dollar... Tomorrow isn't much better, although we get see the Gov't tell us that 200,00 people are on the Initial Jobless report... We, also will see the collar of the Leading Indicators, which probably be negative... we shall see, eh?

To recap... The dollar has run into a strong resistance to going any higher, and has caused it to weaken... It's about time as it has become so overbought... is China thinking of cutting off the rare earths to the U.S.?

For What It's Worth... this is from Oil price.com and it's a write up on how bad it would be if China decided to cease deporting rate earths to the U.S and if can be found here: How Bad Would It Get If China Blocks Rare Earths to America? | OilPrice.com

Or, here's your snippet: "Taiwan is the next pressure point that will test China's weaponization of rare earth metals.

When Japan indicated it would not remain neutral in a Taiwan conflict, Beijing responded by sharply restricting exports of several heavy rare earth materials, including dysprosium and terbium.

Japan was the test case. With U.S.-China tensions escalating, a confrontation could likely lead to an immediate blockade of Chinese rare earths to American markets, pressuring U.S. defense without firing a single shot.

From a defense perspective, it would be disastrous for a Pentagon that is busy rebuilding the $28 billion worth of weapons depleted so far in the ongoing war with Iran. However, in theory, that shouldn’t matter because Washington has already set a deadline of 1 January 2027 for a ban on all Chinese-origin rare earths in American weapons systems.

While the deadline is still in place, it remains controversial, with defense manufacturers warning that a new supply chain won’t be ready in time.

REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) the company building what could be the largest heavy rare earth metallization facility outside China and the Western Hemisphere's first commercial-scale heavy rare earth metallization platform, is a key party in this race against time, bringing commercial metallization capacity online in early 2027 to meet the Pentagon's January 1, 2027 sourcing deadline.

The 2027 ban doesn't affect the civilian economy. Rare earth permanent magnets power industries worth an estimated $1.5 trillion annually in the United States alone, from automobiles and industrial machinery to electronics, medical equipment and data centers. According to the IMF, in the United States, rare earth permanent magnets drive about 70% of value added at risk (VAAR) from a hypothetical severe rare earth supply disruption. A Chinese export cutoff wouldn't create separate defense and civilian shortages. It would force both into the same market, competing for a domestic supply chain that remains in its infancy."

Chuck Again... See? I do read a ton of material each day from all sources to get you the news you desire... I'm just saying

Market Prices 10/21/2026: American Style: A$ .7034, kiwi .5693, C$ .7119, euro 1.1231, sterling 1.3399, Swiss $1.2139, European Style: rand 16.3738, krone 9.3674, SEK 9.7866, forint 324.98, zloty 3.8842, koruna 21.6024, RUB 82.07, yen 157.94, sing 1.2773, HKD 7.8470, INR 94.46, China 6.6756, peso 18.56, BRL 5.0189, BBDXY 1,2220, Dollar Index 101.68, Oil $97.88, 10-year 5.09%, Silver $57.62, Platinum $1,636.00, Palladium $1,109.00, Copper $6.54, and Gold.... $4,131