The Dollar Index continued to rise on strong US Retail Sales data

The Dollar Index continued to rise on strong US Retail sales data but could face rejection near 107.50 in the near term, while the Euro is headed towards 1.06-1.055 from where a short bounce can be possible. EURJPY trades higher within the 162-165 region while USDJPY has risen above our expected resistance at 154 and is now likely to test 155-156 in the near term. Aussie and Pound are nearing their supports at 0.64 and 1.24 respectively from where they could move up in the coming sessions. USDCNY remained flat during the day. EURINR could bounce towards 89.50 in the next few sessions while above 88. USDINR may remain below 83.50 on RBI's intervention else a weaker Euro below 1.06, if seen, could drag USDINR above 83.50 soon.

The US Treasury yields have surged back again. A strong break above the immediate resistances can take the yields further higher in the coming days. The German yields have also risen back sharply and are now poised at the upper end of their range. We will have to wait and watch if the yields are making a bullish range breakout from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remained higher but stable. The outlook is bullish, and the yields can rise more from current levels.

Dow Jones and Nikkei remains bearish for the near term. DAX and Shanghai look mixed and range bound. Nifty indeed broke below its support of 22500 as expected and has scope to test 22000 on the downside.

Crude prices looks range bound. Metals have recovered well contrary to our view to see a fall in the near term. There is room to rise more from here for Metals. Natural Gas can trade sideways within 2.00-1.50 with a bearish view.

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