The common currency continues to be driven largely by developments out of the US

Matthew Ryan, CFA Ebury

The common currency continues to be driven largely by developments out of the US. EUR/USD should be trading lower this week following the news of the US-China trade deal, but ongoing concerns over the erratic nature of White House decision making means that any rallies in the greenback are proving to be short lived.

A handful of ECB members have spoken this week, with nothing suggesting that members are deviating from the dovish narrative. We’ve seen a broad repricing in rates globally since last week, and swaps now see just two cuts from the Governing Council between now and the end of the year.

Trade balance data out of the Euro Area this morning will not be a market mover. A speech from ECB member Lane this afternoon will, however, be closely watched. Next week should be a busier week of domestic news, with April inflation (Monday) and the latest PMIs (Thursday) on the docket.

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Ebury

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

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