Technical outlook on USD/JPY, EUR/USD, BTC/USD [Video]

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls – USD/JPY

USDJPY has remained muted within a sideways monthly pattern for more than three weeks, but the US calendar promises volatile days ahead once investors return from the long weekend, with ISM business PMI figures and multiple employment releases on deck. With President Trump challenging the Fed’s policy stance and having dismissed the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics–responsible for publishing the comprehensive nonfarm payrolls report–last month, Friday’s jobs data may be viewed with caution. As a result, alternative employment indicators such as the JOLTS and ADP reports could gain extra attention this month. Investors are likely to react strongly to any unexpected signs of weakness, particularly after Fed Chair Jay Powell signaled openness to rate cuts during the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to show a 75k increase in new jobs versus 73k previously, alongside a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% and a slowdown in wage growth to 3.7% y/y. These figures could still support the case for a 25 bps rate cut later this month, which is already largely priced in by futures markets. Hence, downside risks for the US dollar may be limited unless the data significantly strengthens the case for deeper easing. Should markets price in additional cuts, USDJPY could breach the 146.65 support and slide toward the 145.15 area, with steeper losses opening the door to 144.00. Alternatively, if inflation concerns resurface–likely through ISM reports–the bulls could attempt another push above the 200-day exponential moving average at 148.00.

Eurozone CPI – EUR/USD

Turning to the Eurozone, sentiment is equally fragile, with political uncertainty in France clouding the economic outlook as the Prime Minister faces a no-confidence vote on September 8. Before that, attention will center on flash CPI inflation data due Tuesday. Headline inflation is expected to remain steady at 2.0% y/y, while core inflation may tick down to 2.2% y/y from 2.3% before. Producer prices could also influence the euro, though movements in the dollar are likely to remain the dominant driver.

US political and economic uncertainty has helped EURUSD pivot around its 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and climb into the 1.1700 territory. However, despite bullish technical signals, a pullback cannot be ruled out, as the pair is testing a key resistance trendline at 1.1728. A break higher could target July’s top at 1.1828, followed by the 1.1980–1.2000 region. On the downside, if the price slips below the 1.1585 base, losses could extend toward 1.1400, and potentially 1.1345.

Crypto volatility – BTC/USD

In crypto markets, BTCUSD showed some recovery over the weekend, but momentum remained soft, keeping the price below the 110,000 level. Historically, the month of September has borne little fruit, with an average loss of 6% over the past 12 years. Combined with its correlation to the Nasdaq 100, which has lacked bullish momentum since mid-August, Bitcoin continues to trade more like a blue-chip stock. Meanwhile, sharper moves in Ethereum suggest traders might be seeking more aggressive swings in alternative coins.

Stronger Fed rate cut expectations could provide support for BTCUSD, and from a technical perspective, a rebound cannot be ruled out given oversold conditions. Still, the 107,550 floor must hold, and the price needs to pierce the 110,000 barrier to retest its 20- and 50-day SMAs near 113,830–115,920. If successful, attention could shift back to the 120,000–123,000 region.