Technical outlook on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold [Video]

Geopolitical risks stretch to Venezuela - Gold

Unexpected strikes in Caracas by U.S. military forces and the capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro on charges ranging from narco-terrorism to oil-field nationalization have reignited bullish momentum in gold, lifting the precious metal to an intraday high of 4,426 early on Monday.

While the event may prove to be a one-off bullish catalyst for safe havens, it has raised concerns over President Trump’s increasingly authoritarian political stance and the risk of similar future military operations, which could continue to generate demand for safe haven assets such as gold.

From a technical perspective, a daily close above the 4,380–4,445 resistance zone could trigger a continuation toward the 4,550–4,600 supply area. Any corrective pullbacks from that region could attract fresh buying interest, potentially targeting 4,685.

US nonfarm payrolls - USD/JPY

U.S. nonfarm payrolls are scheduled for normal release on Friday, bringing monetary policy expectations back into focus. Markets remain cautious as President Trump has yet to officially announce a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting highlighted growing divisions over the timing of future rate cuts.

Consensus forecasts point to a moderate employment increase of 55k in December, down from 64k previously, with the unemployment rate edging slightly lower to 4.5% from 4.6%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rebound to 3.6% after falling to their lowest level since July 2024.

Ahead of the NFP release, traders will also monitor the ADP private employment report, weekly initial jobless claims, and ISM manufacturing and services PMI data for directional cues.

Currently, markets assign a 17% probability to a 25bp rate cut at January’s FOMC meeting. However, if labor data revives concerns about U.S. economic momentum, rate-cut expectations could increase, putting downside pressure on USDJPY.

Technically, the pair remains supported above the 20-day SMA near 156.15, and even though it has briefly touched a two-week high of 157.28 earlier today, it remains trapped below the November-December ceiling of 157.70. The 50-day SMA at 155.35 is another safety net on the downside, while December’s floor around 154.60 could represent the final opportunity for a rebound before the short-term market structure turns bearish.

Eurozone CPI inflation - EUR/USD

EURUSD extended its pre-Christmas decline to a near one-month low of 1.1671 on Monday, driven primarily by sustained U.S. dollar strength. Volatility may increase as the Eurozone releases its preliminary December CPI inflation data on Wednesday.

Market expectations see headline CPI easing back to 2.0% from 2.1% previously and core inflation – excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco – remaining stable around 2.4%. With inflation broadly aligned with the ECB’s target, the data could reinforce a steady policy outlook. Still, any upside surprise may trigger internal debate, especially after ECB President Christine Lagarde left all options open at December’s policy meeting, with some investors even speculating about a potential return to rate hikes.

From a technical standpoint, the latest decline has produced a new lower low in the short-term picture, increasing the probability of further downside. That said, several support levels remain in play and could slow selling pressure. A decisive break below the 1.1685 area would expose the 1.1650 level, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1635.