Technical outlook on AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY [Video]

• AUD/USD turns red ahead of RBA policy decision but remains supported.

• EUR/USD pauses rally near four-year high as the US president sends tariff letters.

• USD/JPY pivots but not out of the woods; FOMC meeting minutes on the agenda.

RBA policy meeting – AUD/USD

The Australian dollar opened the week in the red, extending its decline against the U.S. dollar as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision on Tuesday and the U.S. tariff deadline on Wednesday.

Last week’s rejection near the February resistance at 0.6589 hinted at a potential pullback. Markets largely expect the RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.6% on Tuesday, with two more cuts possible this year. While Australia may avoid the harshest U.S. tariffs - uncertainty around global trade could keep pressure on the risk-sensitive Aussie. Policymakers may stay cautious until tensions between the U.S., China, and the EU ease. A strong labor market may also argue against aggressive easing.

If the RBA strikes a neutral tone and voices a potential rebound in inflation, AUDUSD may recoup its losses to retest 0.6600. But a dovish communication navigating more back-to-back reductions could drive the pair toward 0.6400–0.6440 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

US tariffs deadline – EUR/USD

The euro has stalled near a four-year high as the EU races to strike a deal with the U.S. before steep reciprocal tariffs—from 50% and up to 70%—take effect. Leaders probably face a choice: accept a limited deal and then encourage more talks, or retaliate if terms fall short.

EURUSD looks overbought near the top of its 2025 uptrend, and a breakdown in talks could trigger a pullback toward the 20-day SMA at 1.1650 or April’s high at 1.1570. Still, recent U.S. pressure has spurred reforms in the eurozone and debt regulation changes in Germany, supporting the euro earlier this year. Hence, ongoing trade tensions may not necessarily derail its trajectory.

A breakthrough deal would ease uncertainty and allow EURUSD to break past 1.1825, opening the door to the 1.1935–1.2000 zone.

FOMC meeting minutes – USD/JPY

USDJPY is rising in a range as markets await Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. Investors will watch for signs of division among policymakers who left rates unchanged. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently left all options open, including an immediate July rate cut, but stronger jobs data and signs of rebounding prices have shifted rate-cut expectations to September. Political pressure from the White House persists, but economic data now supports a more patient Fed.

Politically-driven rate cuts may cap any recovery attempts in USDJPY, while a hawkish monetary policy in Japan could be another obstacle for the pair to overcome. The central bank signaled readiness to hike rates further but Trump’s trade protectionism forced policymakers to lower their growth forecasts and freeze their rate hike cycle. With inflation outpacing nominal wage gains, rate hike talk may resurface, but probably at a cost for the minority ruling coalition which is heading to the polls on July 20.

Technically, USDJPY faces resistance near 145.70, with May’s high of 148.60 and the 200-day EMA still distant. A breakout above these levels is needed to shift the trend bullish. A trade deal resolution and easing inflation could help the pair, while worsening trade conditions may increase demand for the safe-haven yen.