NZD/USD technical analysis: Ascent pauses but confidence remains intact

NZDUSD is sustaining its bullish demeanour despite sentiment slowing to a degree, after reaching a 29-month high of 0.7004. The Ichimoku lines are preserving the pair’s positive bearing, while the rising simple moving averages (SMAs) are defending the bullish structure.

The short-term oscillators reflect some waning in positive momentum. The MACD, some distance north of the zero line, is flattening above its rising red trigger line, while the RSI, merely above the 70 mark, is pointing southwards. Moreover, the stochastic oscillator has turned bearish, promoting a retracement in the price.

Continuing to climb, the pair may revisit the multi-month high of 0.7004 before early resistance develops from the 0.7052 peak, from June 2018, and the 0.7095 neighbouring barrier. Maintaining the hike, the pair may jump towards the inside swing lows of 0.7152 and 0.7187 respectively, from March 2018. Another leg higher may then hit the 0.7241 obstacle from April of 2018.

In a negative scenario, downside limitations may first come from the red Tenkan-sen line and the 0.6874-0.6896 support band. Dipping past this, the bears may encounter the key 0.6800 handle where the blue Kijun-sen line currently resides. A deeper pullback may then meet the 50- and 100-day SMAs at 0.6707 and 0.6669 respectively. Should the pair sink further below the Ichimoku cloud, the 0.6588 and 0.6545 troughs could step up to the plate, while the 0.6487-0.6510 support base below may get ready to defend negative tendencies.

Summarizing, the short-to-medium-term bullish picture remains robust above the SMAs, the 0.6874-0.6896 boundary and the tilting key 0.6800 level.