Technical analysis: GBP/JPY improvements curbed by March-May 2016 highs [Video]

GBPJPY has overstepped the 161.40 level, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 150.96 until the more than six-year high of 164.63, with a weakened upward drive. Though, on a positive note, the bullish bearing of the simple moving averages (SMAs) is promoting the broader positive structure.

However, the pair’s positive momentum generated around the 159.02 low and the 38.2% Fibo of 159.40 appears to be fading ahead of the crucial 162.64-164.09 barricade, something also being reflected in the dipping slope of the red Tenkan-sen line. Nevertheless, the flattened blue Kijun-sen line has yet to confirm that negative pressures have gained any convincing advantage.

Meanwhile, the short-term oscillators are also reflecting this minor waning in upward drive. The MACD, far north of the zero mark, has marginally slid underneath its red signal line, while the RSI has deflected off the 70 overbought barrier. Moreover, the dive in the stochastic %K line in the overbought territory, is hinting that upside forces are feeble for now.

In the negative scenario, initial support could emanate from the 23.6% Fibo of 161.40 and the nearby red Tenkan-sen line at 160.86. Retreating under the red Tenkan-sen line, the pair may then target the 38.2% Fibo of 159.40 and the adjacent low of 159.02. In the event buyers’ recent efforts become offset by the price sinking even below the crucial 157.46-158.20 support border, the bear’s focus could then shift towards a support area, linking the 50-day SMA at 156.75 with the 61.8% Fibo of 156.19.

Alternatively, if the pair creates positive impetus off the 23.6% Fibo of 161.40, the bulls may rechallenge the obstructing 162.64-164.09 resistance section, shaped by the March-May 2016 highs. Should the price overpower this key boundary and pilot beyond the more than six-year high of 164.63, the buyers may then be encouraged to confront the specific highs of 166.07 and 167.63 from February 2016, which form the next resistance band. From here, upside momentum could lift the price towards the 170.62 level.

Summarizing, GBPJPY’s advances continue to struggle ahead of the 162.64-164.09 key resistance obstacle. That said, if the price sinks below the 157.46-158.20 base, positive pressures could take a hit. Moreover, an extended price dive - breaching the 154.91-155.45 barrier - that also overwhelms the Ichimoku cloud and the 200-day SMA may stifle the near-term positive outlook. Keep in mind, the broader positive structure remains intact above the congested foundations spanning from 147.39 until 149.04.