Technical analysis : Will the cotton price retreat continue?

Dmitry Lukashov IFC Markets

Recommendation for cotton: Sell

Sell Stop: Below 81.53.

Stop Loss: Above 85.36.

RSI: Neutral.

MACD: Sell.

Donchian Channel: Neutral.

MA(200): Buy.

Fractals: Sell.

Parabolic SAR: Sell.

Chart analysis

The #C-COTTON technical analysis of the price chart in the daily timeframe shows #C-COTTON, Daily has breached below the Fibonacci 23.6 support level above the 200-day moving average MA(200) which is rising. We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower Donchian boundary at 81.53. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above 85.36. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level (85.36) without reaching the order (81.53) we recommend cancelling the order: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental analysis

Rainy weather in Texas improved cotton-growing conditions. Will the cotton price retreat continue? Rainfall events over the last 30 days in Texas improved soil moisture levels for drought-stricken parts of the state, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service reports. Texas produces more cotton than any other state in the United States - approximately 25% of the country's cotton crop on more than 6 million acres. Drought was a major concern for growers in western parts of the state, including the South Plains and Panhandle. Many acres in those areas were a dry plant. Rainy weather over the past several weeks has changed soil moisture conditions and improved crop outlooks. Improved supply prospects are bullish for cotton price.

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Author

Dmitry Lukashov

IFC Markets

Dimtry Lukashov is the senior analyst of IFC Markets. He started his professional career in the financial market as a trader interested in stocks and obligations.

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