Sweden: Trade war and US sanctions dominating markets

Market movers ahead

  • In Norway, we do not expect Norges Bank to raise its policy rate. The upcoming meeting is one of the small meetings without an updated monetary report and press conference.

  • In Denmark, the GDP indicator for Q2 is due. We estimate decent growth of 0.5% q/q. In Sweden, we get housing price data from Mäklarstatistik and Valueguard.

  • In China, many interesting economic indicators are due next week. Chinese data have weakened, so they are interesting to follow, also in the light of the escalating trade war with the US and the policy easing in China.

  • In the US, we are set to get housing and retail sales data.

  • In the UK, the jobs report for June and CPI inflation for July are due out next week.

 

Global macro and market themes

  • The trade war between China and the US is escalating, with Donald Trump now wanting to impose 25% tariffs instead of 10% and China retaliating. It is difficult to see a deal between the two countries, at least on this side of the US midterm elections in November.

  • The Fed and the ECB are on autopilot; China is easing.

  • The US has slapped sanctions on Iran, Turkey and Russia, leading to a slump in the RUB and TRY.

 

Focus

Flash Comment Russia – Warning shots of US sanctions ‘bill from hell’,, 8 August.

Flash Comment Turkey – perfect storm deepens around TRY, 7 August.

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