Sweden: Riksbank June Minutes
We find the minutes from the June meeting to be "neutral" relative to the decision and MPR. That said, the June MPR was more dovish than we expected ahead of the meeting, and the overall impression of the minutes supports our assessment after the June MPR that the Riksbank is quite comfortable with the inflation forecast, despite the current elevated price plans and core inflation.
The geopolitical risks and the impact on households and companies are debated heavily. The main conclusion is that the upside risks to the tariff-negotiations have diminished compared to the May meeting. Combined with the weaker Q1 GDP data this gives support to the decision to cut.
There is little discussions around the conditions for delivering another rate cut. Thedéen says that the signal in the rate path should not be "over-interpreted", but our assessment would be that the Riksbank is more focused on the growth recovery, and if we don't see any inflation pressures from geopolitical developments and growth remains weak, the Riksbank is seemingly ready to act.
Author
Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.
