The message from today's ISM is that supply chain issues have gone from a problem to a crisis. The top drivers behind today's jump in the ISM index to 61.1 were longer wait times for supplier deliveries and sharply higher prices paid. On the upside, hiring moved back into expansion.
Author
Wells Fargo Research Team
Wells Fargo
EUR/USD stays defensive but holds 1.1850 amid quiet markets in the European hours on Monday. The US Dollar is struggling for direction due to thin liquidity conditions as US markets are closed in observance of Presidents' Day.
GBP/USD kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range near 1.365 in Monday's European trading. The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important releases from the UK and the US.
Gold remains depressed through the early European session on Monday, though it has managed to rebound from the daily trough and currently trades around the $5,000 psychological mark. Moreover, a combination of supporting factors warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders, and before positioning for deeper losses.
Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have been trading sideways within key ranges following the massive correction. Meanwhile, XRP recovers slightly, breaking above the key resistance zone. The top three cryptocurrencies hint at a potential short-term recovery, with momentum indicators showing fading bearish signs.
Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.
Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.
