Jobs report for the month of June came above the expectation, tempering the hope of a Fed’s rate cut. June NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) rebounded to 224,000 after a disappointing 72,000 May figure. Unemployment rate increased to 3.7% while average wage gains increased less than expected at 3.1%. The gain however might not be enough to prevent the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month amid an evidence of slowing economy. Low inflation rate and a lack of substantive progress in the trade war between the U.S and China still pose a growing risk to the global economy. Trump’s administration has said that it will take time to get the right deal with China. In the meantime, current tariffs are still in place and the trade war has affected business confidence. These likely will be a deciding factor in the Fed’s rate decision this month.

The Fed is also under political pressure to cut the interest rate. President Trump in many occasions has repeatedly called the Fed to cut interest rates.



President Trump last Wednesday also accused China and Europe of manipulating currency to compete with the U.S. He suggested the Fed should do the same to match them.



The Fed last month gave a signal that it can ease monetary policy as early as July.  It also stands ready to support the economic expansion. The market trimmed the bets on rate reduction after the June job’s report to about 94%, but still expect a 25 basis point cut in July. US Dollar reacted higher after the report as it reprices the odds of a serious US economic downturn.

Short Term USDJPY Elliott Wave Path after June NFP



USDJPY has broken above the bearish trend channel from April 24, 2019 high. It retested the channel, held and extended higher again after strong jobs report. Pair currently shows a 5 swing sequence from June 25, 2019 low favoring further upside to end 7 swing double zigzag Elliott Wave structure towards 109.3 – 110.4. Near term, while pullback stays above July 3 low (107.5), expect pair to extend higher.



Interested in active FX or CRYPTO Elliott Wave labeled charts on a daily basis? Now it's your time; we have a SPECIAL offer; 50% Off on FX and Crypto markets. Check Elliott Wave Forecast website for more details.

FURTHER DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER CONCERNING RISK, RESPONSIBILITY AND LIABILITY Trading in the Foreign Exchange market is a challenging opportunity where above average returns are available for educated and experienced investors who are willing to take above average risk. However, before deciding to participate in Foreign Exchange (FX) trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of xperience and risk appetite. Do not invest or trade capital you cannot afford to lose. EME PROCESSING AND CONSULTING, LLC, THEIR REPRESENTATIVES, AND ANYONE WORKING FOR OR WITHIN WWW.ELLIOTTWAVE- FORECAST.COM is not responsible for any loss from any form of distributed advice, signal, analysis, or content. Again, we fully DISCLOSE to the Subscriber base that the Service as a whole, the individual Parties, Representatives, or owners shall not be liable to any and all Subscribers for any losses or damages as a result of any action taken by the Subscriber from any trade idea or signal posted on the website(s) distributed through any form of social-media, email, the website, and/or any other electronic, written, verbal, or future form of communication . All analysis, trading signals, trading recommendations, all charts, communicated interpretations of the wave counts, and all content from any media form produced by and/or the Representatives are solely the opinions and best efforts of the respective author(s). In general Forex instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose some or all of their initial margin funds. All content provided by is expressed in good faith and is intended to help Subscribers succeed in the marketplace, but it is never guaranteed. There is no “holy grail” to trading or forecasting the market and we are wrong sometimes like everyone else. Please understand and accept the risk involved when making any trading and/or investment decision. UNDERSTAND that all the content we provide is protected through copyright of EME PROCESSING AND CONSULTING, LLC. It is illegal to disseminate in any form of communication any part or all of our proprietary information without specific authorization. UNDERSTAND that you also agree to not allow persons that are not PAID SUBSCRIBERS to view any of the content not released publicly. IF YOU ARE FOUND TO BE IN VIOLATION OF THESE RESTRICTIONS you or your firm (as the Subscriber) will be charged fully with no discount for one year subscription to our Premium Plus Plan at $1,799.88 for EACH person or firm who received any of our content illegally through the respected intermediary’s (Subscriber in violation of terms) channel(s) of communication.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD consolidates around 1.1150 amid mixed trade headlines

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1150, consolidating previous gains. President Trump has expressed optimism about clinching a deal with China, while some officials have cast doubts. Brexit headlines are set to impact the euro as well.


GBP/USD hovers below 1.30 ahead of critical vote on the Brexit deal

GBP/USD is trading just below 1.30 as parliament is set to debate and vote on UK PM Johnson's Brexit deal. The vote on the program to complete the process quickly is also critical. 


USD/JPY holds steady above mid-108.00s

The USD/JPY pair failed to capitalize on the early uptick to multi-day tops and is currently placed at the lower end of its daily trading range, just above mid-108.00s.


Brexit drama does not deter the pound

Despite an unending series of Parliamentary setbacks for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s attempt to clinch the UK exit from the European Union, Sterling has retained almost all of its gains of the past ten days, suggesting that his Brexit deal will eventually be approved.

Read more

Gold: Choppy inside monthly trendline, 200-bar SMA

Gold’s repeated failures to cross 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) fails to portray the yellow metal’s weakness as the monthly trend line limits its downside. The Bullion presently tests the support line while flashing $1,483.55.

Gold News

Forex Majors