Jobs report for the month of June came above the expectation, tempering the hope of a Fed’s rate cut. June NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) rebounded to 224,000 after a disappointing 72,000 May figure. Unemployment rate increased to 3.7% while average wage gains increased less than expected at 3.1%. The gain however might not be enough to prevent the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month amid an evidence of slowing economy. Low inflation rate and a lack of substantive progress in the trade war between the U.S and China still pose a growing risk to the global economy. Trump’s administration has said that it will take time to get the right deal with China. In the meantime, current tariffs are still in place and the trade war has affected business confidence. These likely will be a deciding factor in the Fed’s rate decision this month.

The Fed is also under political pressure to cut the interest rate. President Trump in many occasions has repeatedly called the Fed to cut interest rates.

Trump

 

President Trump last Wednesday also accused China and Europe of manipulating currency to compete with the U.S. He suggested the Fed should do the same to match them.

Trump

 

The Fed last month gave a signal that it can ease monetary policy as early as July.  It also stands ready to support the economic expansion. The market trimmed the bets on rate reduction after the June job’s report to about 94%, but still expect a 25 basis point cut in July. US Dollar reacted higher after the report as it reprices the odds of a serious US economic downturn.

Short Term USDJPY Elliott Wave Path after June NFP

JPY

 

USDJPY has broken above the bearish trend channel from April 24, 2019 high. It retested the channel, held and extended higher again after strong jobs report. Pair currently shows a 5 swing sequence from June 25, 2019 low favoring further upside to end 7 swing double zigzag Elliott Wave structure towards 109.3 – 110.4. Near term, while pullback stays above July 3 low (107.5), expect pair to extend higher.

 


 

Interested in active FX or CRYPTO Elliott Wave labeled charts on a daily basis? Now it's your time; we have a SPECIAL offer; 50% Off on FX and Crypto markets. Check Elliott Wave Forecast website for more details.

FURTHER DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER CONCERNING RISK, RESPONSIBILITY AND LIABILITY Trading in the Foreign Exchange market is a challenging opportunity where above average returns are available for educated and experienced investors who are willing to take above average risk. However, before deciding to participate in Foreign Exchange (FX) trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of xperience and risk appetite. Do not invest or trade capital you cannot afford to lose. EME PROCESSING AND CONSULTING, LLC, THEIR REPRESENTATIVES, AND ANYONE WORKING FOR OR WITHIN WWW.ELLIOTTWAVE- FORECAST.COM is not responsible for any loss from any form of distributed advice, signal, analysis, or content. Again, we fully DISCLOSE to the Subscriber base that the Service as a whole, the individual Parties, Representatives, or owners shall not be liable to any and all Subscribers for any losses or damages as a result of any action taken by the Subscriber from any trade idea or signal posted on the website(s) distributed through any form of social-media, email, the website, and/or any other electronic, written, verbal, or future form of communication . All analysis, trading signals, trading recommendations, all charts, communicated interpretations of the wave counts, and all content from any media form produced by www.Elliottwave-forecast.com and/or the Representatives are solely the opinions and best efforts of the respective author(s). In general Forex instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose some or all of their initial margin funds. All content provided by www.Elliottwave-forecast.com is expressed in good faith and is intended to help Subscribers succeed in the marketplace, but it is never guaranteed. There is no “holy grail” to trading or forecasting the market and we are wrong sometimes like everyone else. Please understand and accept the risk involved when making any trading and/or investment decision. UNDERSTAND that all the content we provide is protected through copyright of EME PROCESSING AND CONSULTING, LLC. It is illegal to disseminate in any form of communication any part or all of our proprietary information without specific authorization. UNDERSTAND that you also agree to not allow persons that are not PAID SUBSCRIBERS to view any of the content not released publicly. IF YOU ARE FOUND TO BE IN VIOLATION OF THESE RESTRICTIONS you or your firm (as the Subscriber) will be charged fully with no discount for one year subscription to our Premium Plus Plan at $1,799.88 for EACH person or firm who received any of our content illegally through the respected intermediary’s (Subscriber in violation of terms) channel(s) of communication.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD falls further as USD picks up bids on Fed's Bullard

The EUR/USD pair came under fresh selling pressure and fell further below the 1.1250 level after the comments from Fed's Bullard bolstered the broad USD recovery.  Bullard said that he sees no need for a larger rate cut.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD drops back towards 1.2500, US data eyed

The latest recovery attempt in the GBP/USD pair lost legs near 1.2535 region,  driving the rates back towards the 1.25 handle amid widening UK budget deficit and broad US dollar strength. Focus on US data. 

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: bears pausing, still in control

Japanese National Inflation steady at 0.7%YoY in June. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index expected at 98.5 in July. USD/JPY corrective advance falling short of signaling an interim bottom in place.

USD/JPY News

Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey preview: The pool of happiness spreads

The University of Michigan will issue its preliminary Survey of Consumers for July on Friday July 18th at 12:30 pm GMT. Consumer sentiment expected to gain modestly in July. Optimism should be supported by strong June jobs report.

Read more

Gold consolidates around $ 1440, eyes US data for fresh direction

Gold (futures on Comex) extends its side-trend around the 1440 mark into the mid-European session, having stalled its retreat from 2019 highs of 1454 near 1437 region.

Gold News

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures