Straigt of Hormuz back in focus

Frank Walbaum FX Strategies.Asia

Important news this week

Mon, 22nd, 14:30 CET CA Consumer Price Index.
Wed, 24th, 03:30 CET AU Consumer Price Index.
Thu, 25th, 03:30 CET AU Employment Change / Unemployment Rate.
Thu, 25th, 14:30 CET US Core PCE Price Index / Final GDP.

Geopolitical tensions return as markets stay resilient

Geopolitical risks have moved back into focus after reports that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again, while tensions between Israel and Hezbollah escalated following recent Israeli attacks. At the same time, diplomatic talks continue in Geneva, with President Trump maintaining a firm stance on negotiations. Despite the renewed tensions, financial markets have remained surprisingly resilient. The US dollar continues to trade firm, while equities are holding relatively steady as investors assess whether the latest developments will materially impact global growth and trade.

Oil opened higher on the geopolitical headlines but later gave back much of its gains, suggesting that traders remain cautious about pricing in major supply disruptions. Precious metals also recovered after a weaker start to the session. Silver climbed back above the 65 USD level, while Gold remains stable above 4,100 USD. In FX markets, the Japanese Yen remains weak despite the increase in geopolitical uncertainty. Crypto markets remain volatile, although Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing relative strength compared to the broader digital asset sector.

Market talk

Risk sentiment remains surprisingly stable despite the increase in geopolitical tensions. The fact that oil failed to hold its initial gains suggests that markets are still expecting diplomacy to prevail over escalation. Equities remain largely flat, while crypto markets continue to attract selective buying interest. Precious metals are showing resilience, and the DAX has recovered above the 25,000 level once again. If risk sentiment remains positive, the German index could attempt a breakout higher in the coming sessions. Overall, markets continue to balance geopolitical risks against resilient economic data and ongoing expectations for future monetary easing.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities sideways, USD stronger, BTC weak, oil weak, Silver weak, Gold weak.

Author

Frank Walbaum

FX Strategies.Asia

Frank has been working in the TV business for several years. Acquiring his skills in Germany’s biggest broadcasting station, he then chose to work and live in Asia, which was in 2007.

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