Stocks retreat as Trump reintroduces tariff threat

US indices fell back from record highs yesterday as US president Trump restated that he still has the option of higher tariffs on Chinese goods, despite the truce agreed on last month. Fedspeakers maintained their dovish bias while oil prices eased as Iran reportedly showed a willingness to talk.

US30USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The US30 index halted a four-day rising streak yesterday following Trump’s tariff comment and some lackluster earnings reports

• The 100-day moving average at 26,121 and the 55-day average at 26,181 continue to converge at a slow pace

• US housing starts are expected to rebound in June, increasing 1.9% after a 0.9% decline in May. Retail sales for June beat estimates and more strong data points could prevent the Fed from easing further after this month’s meeting.

DE30EUR Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The Germany30 index advanced for a second day yesterday despite the ZEW surveys missing estimates

• The index is edging away from the 55-day moving average support, which is at 12,205 today

• ZEW surveys for July missed forecasts with the economic sentiment index dropping to -24.5 versus -22.3 expected. The current situation index turned negative for the first time since 2010.

JP225USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The JP225 index looks set for a second daily loss, echoing the weak sentiment on Wall Street

• The index risks closing below the 200-day moving average, which is at 21,439 today, for the first time since June 28

• Japan’s trade data for June are expected tomorrow morning, with imports seen falling 0.4% y/y, the second monthly contraction in a row, while exports are expected to drop a more significant 5.6%, which would be the seventh consecutive monthly decline.