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Today’s trade ideas

Gold XAUUSD beat 2018 this week for our buy signal to hit the next target of 2029/30 & even reached 2051. Outlook remains positive so on a break above 2053 we are likely to retest the all time high at 2069/2072. A daily close above here would be the next buy signal.

Chart

We dipped to support at 2045/40 yesterday & held above 2035 so bulls appear to remain in control this morning. However a break lower today risks a slide to to support at 2015/10. Longs need stops below 2005.

Silver XAGUSD traded sideways for 6 days and then beat the upper end of the range late on Friday for a buy signal targeting 2465/70, 2480/85, 2500 & my next target of  2520/25 (hit yesterday as predicted). A high for the day exactly at this target but further gains look like towards 2550/60 before the end of the week.

We should have support again at 2490/80 after we saw a low for the day exactly here. Longs need stops below 2470. A break lower risks a slide to a buying opportunity at 2420/10 & longs need stops below 2390.

We also caught a low for the day in EURUSD but selling USDJPY was more challenging.

The first sell order at 147.20/30 was stopped (and now we are trading below that level) & then we held 10 pips from 148.00 - you know my outlook for the pair is negative & has been for 2 weeks so I hope some how you are still holding a short position.

I am sure you remember I have downside targets as far as 146.00 & even 140.00 is not out of the question.

GBPUSD buying opportunity unfortunately missed by 12 pips yesterday but I am sticking with that level today.

AUDUSD should have very strong support at 6590/80 in the short term bull trend.

NZDUSD made a low for the day exactly at the buying opportunity at 6140/30.

Unfortunately I made a mess of the GBPJPY trade & got us in too early...the pair has fallen back below the sell level. I am going to leave this and watch.

Treasury yields and Dollar movement

  • Treasury yields fell on Wednesday.

  • The dollar gained, reaching a 3-1/2 month low, with MSCI's global stock index barely rising.

US equities performance

  • S&P 500 edged lower, Nasdaq dipped, while the Dow rose slightly.

  • Investors awaited a key inflation reading scheduled for early Thursday.

Commerce department's GDP data

  • U.S. GDP rose at a 5.2% annualized rate in Q3, revised up from 4.9%.

  • Fastest expansion since Q4 2021, indicating an encouraging sign for the economy.

  • GDP report confirmed inflation trending lower, suggesting a potential "Goldilocks scenario."

Mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials

  • Fed officials on Wednesday provided mixed messages on monetary policy.

  • Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested rate cuts could begin in months if inflation eases.

  • Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic expects U.S. growth to slow, anticipating easing inflation.

  • Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin is "skeptical" about inflation easing, considering another rate hike.

Dollar performance

  • Dollar climbed from its lowest level in over three months after four days of losses.

  • Greenback rose against most currencies except the Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar.

  • On track for its biggest monthly decline in a year due to expectations of Fed rate cuts by H1 2024.

US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data

  • U.S. GDP increased at a 5.2% annualized rate in Q3, faster than the previously reported 4.9%.

  • Dollar extended gains supported by robust economic data.

Financial conditions and rate cut expectations

  • U.S. financial conditions are the loosest since early September, easing 100 basis points in a month.

  • U.S. rates futures markets are pricing in over 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, starting in May.

  • Two-year Treasury yield at its lowest since July, down nearly 40 basis points in the week.

Currency movements

  • Dollar Index rose 0.205%, euro down 0.16% to $1.0972.

  • Japanese Yen strengthened 0.15% versus the greenback, Sterling last trading at $1.2696, up 0.02%.

Oil prices

  • Oil prices rose more than $1 on the possibility of OPEC+ extending or deepening supply cuts.

  • Brent crude advanced by $1.42 to settle at $83.10, WTI crude gained $1.45 to settle at $77.86.

Gold prices

  • Spot gold reached a seven-month high of $2,051 an ounce.

  • Gold futures gained 0.28% to $2,045.70 an ounce.

Upcoming events

  • Euro zone-wide inflation figure and the Fed's preferred measure of U.S. inflation (PCE) are due out on Thursday.
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