S&P 500 futures defend 6.274 pivot ahead of Fed minutes – London – New York playbook

S&P 500 Futures V-Recovery Complete: After the low at 4,877, ESU2025 has surged back into the 6,279–6,300 supply zone.

Macro Drivers:

• • Fed Minutes Due Tomorrow: Market positioning is light ahead of potential guidance on rate-pause.

  • U.S. ISM Services & Jobs Data: May print could stoke further volatility if above-consensus.

  • Options Expiry (OPEX) This Week: Gamma and pin‐risk around 6,300–6,350 may amplify moves.

• Volume Profile Note: The overnight volume node, located around 6,265–6,274, has acted as a rotational magnet throughout Asia, heading into the London session.

Structure and levels to watch

Critical Support Band -  6,265 – 6,274 - Asian session held here twice; micro-POC.

Centre Pivots -   6,224/6,305 - 3-session anchors; flips guide bias.

Immediate Upside Targets -   6,288 → 6,305 mid-range pivots.

Extension Zones -  6,324 → 6,366.

Failure Triggers -   6,224 ↓ 6,243 - Reclaim of support → fresh longs.

Playbook

1. Above 6,274 Holds (Bullish Path):

   • Entry: On 3 min/H1 confirm (higher-low) above 6,274.

   • Targets:

     • T1: 6,288 (overnight high).

     • T2: 6,305 (session pivot).

     • T3: 6,324 (weekly VWAP confluence).

   • Stops: Below 6,265 (node low).

2. Failure of 6,274 (Bearish Path):

   • Entry: 3 min breakdown close below 6,274.

   • Targets:

     • T1: 6,265 (node low).

     • T2: 6,243 (prior session low).

     • T3: 6,224 (multi-day pivot).

   • Stops: Above 6,288 (overnight swing).

3. Re-Entry at Lower Pivots:

   • If price retraces to 6,243–6,224 and holds, look for long setups targeting a re-test of 6,274. Use H1 reversal bars for confirmation.

4. Risk & Money Management:

   • Position Sizing: Scale in with 50% size and add confirmation.

   • Volatility Buffer: Adjust stops for expected 10–12 tick 3 min ATR.

   • Overnight vs. Day: Trim or hedge ahead of Fed minutes.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Futures trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your due diligence and consult a qualified financial professional before making any trading decisions.