Smart money adds to extreme soybean shorts

Steven Mylonas Bottomcatcher.com

According to last weeks commitment of traders (COT) report which covers positions held amongst three groups of traders (Commercial hedgers more commonly known as the Smart Money hedgers, Non-commercials and Non-reportables) through Tuesday the 29th September showed the Smart Money is still aggressively shorting Soybeans along with agriculture commodities in general. Their total shorts against agriculture contracts hit another multi-year low, with extreme bearish readings on Soybeans, in particular, totalling -218,443 contracts at (3) (previous week -201,737 contracts).

Non-commercial (funds etc) positions totalled 239,872 contracts, an increase of 21,306 contracts from the week prior. And Non-reportables (small speculators) totalled -21,429 contracts (previous week -16,829).

It's important to note that when commercial hedgers reach multi-year extremes, as they are now, they have a tendency to drive the markets. In contrast to that, non-commercials who typically always take the opposite side to the commercials usually get caught out at these likely turning points. From a technical perspective, the soybean weekly chart suggests we are toying with multi-year overhead resistance zone (R) and weekly prices are being capped by the 400 period moving average, which has proven to be a reliable source at turning points.

Smart money trade set-ups, such as this one are for the mid to long term.

Author

Steven Mylonas

Bottomcatcher.com

With more than 20 years of experience, Steven has a broad knowledge of market strategies and the markets in general, with a strong focus and understanding of data reading.

EUR/USD faces next resistance near 1.1930

EUR/USD has surrendered its earlier intraday advance on Thursday and is now hovering uncomfortably around the 1.1860 region amid modest gains in the US Dolla. Moving forward, markets are exoected to closely follow Friday’s release of US CPI data.

GBP/USD inching closer to 1.36

The Pound Sterling edged higher to 1.3640 on Thursday, recovering from an earlier pullback after stronger-than-expected US jobs data initially weighed on the pair. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% at its February 4 meeting in a narrow 5-4 vote split, with four members preferring a 25 basis point cut to 3.50%.

Gold falls to near $4,900 as selling pressure intensifies

Gold price faces some selling pressure around $4,910 during the early Asian session on Friday. The yellow metal tumbles over 3.50% on the day, with algorithmic traders appearing to amplify the precious metal’s sudden drop. Traders will closely monitor the release of the US Consumer Price Index inflation report for January, which will be released later on Friday.

Ethereum investors face huge unrealized losses following price slump

US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds flipped negative again on Wednesday after recording net outflows of $129.1 million, reversing mild inflows seen at the beginning of the week, per SoSoValue data. Fidelity's FETH was responsible for more than half of withdrawals, posting outflows of $67 million.

A tale of two labour markets: Headline strength masks underlying weakness

Undoubtedly, yesterday’s delayed US January jobs report delivered a strong headline – one that surpassed most estimates. However, optimism quickly faded amid sobering benchmark revisions.

Aster Price Forecast: Demand sparks on Binance Wallet partnership for on-chain perpetuals

Aster is up roughly 9% so far on Thursday, hinting at the breakout of a crucial resistance level. Aster partners up with Binance wallet for the second season of the on-chain perpetuals challenge.