Silver (XAG/USD) analysis: Elliott Wave framework suggests $38 downside potential [Video]

Since hitting the record high of $121.64 in January 2026, Silver (XAGUSD) has been in a sustained correction. The decline has developed into a double three Elliott Wave structure, which suggests a long‑term downside target near $38. This level represents the 100% extension of the corrective sequence and remains a key risk if bearish momentum continues.

The near‑term cycle from the September 23 high is unfolding as a five‑wave impulse. Wave (i) ended at $63.04, followed by a brief rally in wave (ii) that reached $65.09. The market then dropped in wave (iii) to $59.93, before a pullback in wave (iv) that terminated at $61.80. Price has since resumed lower in wave (v), confirming the continuation of the bearish sequence.

Within wave (v), wave i ended at $58.96, while wave ii retraced to $61.45. The current decline is wave iii, which should complete soon. A corrective bounce in wave (iv) is expected afterward, before another leg lower finalizes wave (v) and completes the cycle from September 23.

As long as the pivot at $61.87 remains intact, rallies should fail in either three or seven swings. This reinforces the downside bias and keeps the $38 target in view. The Elliott Wave framework highlights both the immediate bearish path and the broader risk of deeper losses.

Silver 60 minute Elliott Wave chart

XAG/USD Elliott Wave [Video]