Silver (likely) tops $120 as stocks invalidate their breakout

So, technicals are still relevant after all.

I’ve been writing about $120 target for silver for many months now. Most recently, on Monday. However, the first time I featured the above chart with $120 as the long-term target was literally years ago.

This level was reached today.

Silver futures topped at $121.75 and then they plunged below $107, finally stabilizing close to $110. But the size of the intraday reversal serves as a reminder that the white metal can decline even faster than it climbs.

Remember: back in 2011, it took just six trading days for silver to erase two months of gains.

If this was to be repeated, we’d have silver just above $50 before Valentine’s Day.

Possible? Yes, but of course, the decline doesn’t have to be as volatile. 

Potential Silver top

Also… It’s still possible that silver moves higher in the near term. It didn’t decline tens of dollars – it was simply very volatile earlier today. However, based on the target that was reached and given the situation in the USD Index AND the general stock market, it could really be the case that silver just topped.

The stock market might be particularly important here. The USD Index moved back up in the very recent past, but it didn’t trigger declines in PMs. Today’s decline in the stock market, however, triggered bigger moves lower.

This is a very important clue.

Stocks have once again failed to stay above their 2025 high, indicating that the rally could be over. This is yet another invalidation of this kind, but the size of today’s intraday decline in PMs suggests that this might be something different.

The short-term weakness present in mining stocks is also telling.

I used the red rectangle to show you how the current prices of GLD, SLV, and GDXJ compared to last week’s prices.

In short, gold and silver are up, but miners are down. This is exactly how rallies tend to end. 

Bitcoin breakdown accelerates

Also, speaking of important signs, the decline in bitcoin is picking up pace.

After verifying its breakdown below its flag pattern, bitcoin declined about 5% today.

I previously emphasized that if one doesn’t have a short position in bitcoin yet, it would be a great time to enter it or add to the existing positions, if one is not happy with their size yet. In my opinion, this continues to be an excellent idea from the risk-to-reward point of view. The “new gold” was on the verge, and now it’s in the middle of the first step forward.

Last but definitely not the least – gold. The yellow metal first soared, and then it plunged by almost $500 on an intraday basis. And to think that when I first got interested in the previous metals market many years ago, gold’s nominal price was much less than that...

Time flies, and so does the price of gold. It looks like the gravity will reassert itself soon enough, though.